January 20, 2013

Facts and Figures: To stay or to go?



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Pro Grades




According to
BusinessInsider.com, elite offensive tackles are among the highest
paid players in the NFL.  The average salary cap figure for
the top five players at the position rounds out to $11.8 million
per year, trailing only defensive ends ($16.5 million) and
quarterbacks ($15.2 million) in annual income.  With that in
mind, the decision made by U-M offensive tackle Taylor Lewan to
return to school for a fifth year, and shun a potentially massive
contract, was a surprising move to some.


   
But the projected top-10 pick is not the first Wolverine with high
draft potential to turn down the money to tend to unfinished
business in Ann Arbor - and recent history suggests that this is a
much-more business savvy choice than it may appear on the surface.


Here is a
quick look at six prominent players that decided to return for
their senior years, and how the decision affected both their
legacy, draft status and NFL careers:




color="#ffff00">Senior Seasons of Prominent Players That
Returned

Senior
Year

Position

Name

Team
Record

Individual
Awards

2011

Defensive Tackle

Mike Martin

11-2 (6-2 Big Ten)

First-team All-Big Ten

2007

Offensive Tackle

Jake Long

9-4 (6-2 Big Ten)

Consensus First-team All-America,
First-team All-Big Ten, Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the
Year
2006

Cornerback

Leon Hall

11-2 (7-1)

First-team All-America, First-team
All-Big Ten

2006

Linebacker/Defensive End

Lamarr Woodley

11-2 (7-1)

Consensus First-team All-America,
First-team All-Big Ten, Ted Hendricks Award recipient, Big
Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Big Ten Defensive
Lineman of the Year

2004

Wide Receiver

Braylon Edwards

9-3 (7-1) *Big Ten Champions

Unanimous First-team All-America,
First-Team All-Big Ten, Fred Biletnikoff Award recipient,
Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year

2001

Linebacker

Larry Foote

8-4 (6-2)

First-team All-America, First-team
All-Big Ten




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color="#ffff00">Pro Careers of Prominent Players That
Returned

Draft
Year

Position

Name

Draft
Selection

Team

Current NFL Status

Pro Bowl
Appearances

Super
Bowl Championships

2012Defensive Tackle

Mike Martin

Round: 3, Pick: 82

Tennessee Titans

Member of the Tennessee Titans

N/A

N/A

2008

Offensive Tackle

Jake Long

Round: 1, Pick: 1

Miami Dolphins

Member the Miami Dolphins

Four

N/A

2007

Cornerback

Leon Hall

Round: 1, Pick: 18

Cincinnati Bengals

Member of the Cincinnati Bengals

N/A

N/A

2007

Linebacker/Defensive End

Lamarr Woodley

Round: 2, Pick: 46

Pittsburgh Steelers

Member of the Pittsburgh Stealers

One

One

2005

Wide Receiver

Braylon Edwards

Round: 1, Pick: 3

Cleveland Browns

Member of the New York Jets

One

N/A

2002

Linebacker

Larry Foote

Round:4, Pick: 128

Pittsburgh Steelers

Member of the Pittsburgh Steelers

N/A

Two






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    All six enjoyed tremendous senior campaigns,
with each garnering
First-team All-Big Ten honors (100.0 percent), five earning
All-American accolades (88.3
percent), three receiving post season Big Ten positional awards
(50.0 percent),
and both Edwards and Woodley were named the top player at their
respective position
nationally (33.3 percent). As a team, the Wolverines enjoyed a
cumulative 48-15 record,
including a 32-8 mark in conference play.style="mso-tab-count:1">


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    The average draft
placement of this grouping was 46 overall, or mid-second round,
with two
players going in the top five (33.0 percent), three in the first
round (50.0
percent) and five within the first three rounds (83.3 percent).


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    The extra year of
collegiate seasoning also proved as effective preparation for
the game on the
next level.  All six
played a role on an
NFL active roster in 2012 (100.0 percent), and and have combined
for six Pro
Bowl selections (Long, 4; Edwards, 1; Woodley, 1) and three
Super Bowl
championships (Foote, 2; Woodley, 1).





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Contrarily, nine Wolverines have left early for the NFL
Draft.  Here is a quick glance at the results this
decision produced at the next level:





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color="#ffff00">Professional Careers of Early NFL Draft
Entrants

Draft
Year

Position

Name

Draft
Selection

Team

Current NFL Status

Pro Bowl Appearances

Super Bowl Championships

2010

Cornerback

Donovan Warren

Undrafted

N/A

Not on Active Roster

N/A

N/A
2009

Tight End

Carson Butler

Undrafted

N/A

Not on Active RosterN/A

N/A
2008

Wide Receiver

Adrian Arrington

Round: 7, Pick: 237

New Orleans Saints

Not on Active RosterN/AOne

2008

Wide Receiver

Mario Manningham

Round: 3, Pick: 95

New York Giants

Member of the San Fransisco 49ers

N/AOne

2007

Defensive Tackle

Alan Branch

Round: 2, Pick: 33

Arizona Cardinals

Starter for Seattle Seahawks

N/AN/A
2005

Free Safety

Ernest Shazor

Undrafted

N/A

RetiredN/AN/A
2003

Quarterback

Drew Henson

Round: 6, Pick: 192

Houston Texans

Retired

N/AN/A
2002

Outside Linebacker/ Defensive End

Shantee Orr

Undrafted

N/A

RetiredN/AN/A
2001

Wide Receiver

David Terrell

Round: 1, Pick: 8

Chicago Bears

RetiredN/AN/A





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    The average draft position among those that
were
drafted was 113, or mid-fourth round, but this mean is greatly
skewed
considering four prospects (44.4 percent) were undrafted.


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Only one went in
the first round (11.1 percent), and Terrell is widely considered
a draft-day
bust; he totaled just 1,602 yards and nine touchdowns in his
career.  Only three
of the nine were chosen within the
first three rounds (33.3 percent), and not a single one ever
performed to All-Pro
standards.  In fact,
only Branch and
Manningham finished the 2012 with an active roster spot in the
league, and both
Warren and Butler have never seen action in a regular season NFL
contest. Henson initially left early to pursue a career in
baseball before once again returning to football, but failed on
the professional level in both sports.





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It is
clear, at least according to recent historical data, that returning
for an extra season in Ann Arbor has paid dividends, and bolting
early for the
greener pastures of the NFL draft has largely been detrimental,
despite the
possibility of a big contract up front.style="mso-spacerun:yes"> 
Time will tell if Lewan made the right decision, particularly
with the risk
of potential injury that could affect one's draft stock, but it is
clear that the
facts and figures are on his side.



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