TheWolverine.com - Was the Cupboard Bare for Rodriguez?

November 3, 2009

Jonathan Chait

At his Monday press conference, Rich Rodriguez alluded to the lack of talent he inherited when he first came to Michigan. Was the cupboard bare? Not exactly. In 2008 and 2009, Michigan has had more top-level talent than any Big Ten team except Ohio State and Penn State. The problem is the level of talent below the top level. That's where Rodriguez has faced huge obstacles.

Specifically, Michigan has a built-up talent drought at three positions: quarterback, defensive back, and defensive tackle. Years of terrible recruiting in those three areas all but doomed Michigan for at least the first two years of Rodriguez's tenure. Let's look at each position in order.

Quarterback: In 2005, Jason Forcier signed after more highly-rated prospects went elsewhere. Forcier showed some leadership and mobility, but his arm strength was deemed inadequate by the coaching staff (which makes you wonder why he was offered to begin with.) After being demoted behind Ryan Mallett in the spring of 2007, Forcier understandably transferred.

In 2006 - again after missing out on more coveted prospects - Michigan signed David Cone. This was a long-shot flyer on an unrated high school option quarterback. Cone has not shown the ability to play quarterback at this level.

In 2007, with quarterback depth now looking desperate, Ryan Mallett came aboard. Mallett turned out to be the quintessential "million dollar arm, ten cent head" player, loathed by his teammates and threatening to transfer from the moment he arrived. Some fans have blamed Rodriguez for failing to retain Mallett, but it's unclear if there's anything he could have done to keep him, or even that Mallett would have stayed if the coaching staff had remained intact. Also in 2007, Stephen Threet transferred in, but proved highly inaccurate as a passer and ultimately unwilling to compete with incoming freshman Tate Forcier.

In 2008, Rodriguez tried to sign Terrelle Pryor and B.J. Daniels, being spurned in the first instance and backing off out of necessity - this was not a good recruiting situation -- on the second. He wound up at the last minute signing Justin Feagin, a low-ranked recruit who flashed potential in high school, but turned out to be sort of a heavily discounted Ryan Mallett (one dollar arm, ten cent head.)

Outcome: Michigan has had to rely entirely on two freshman quarterbacks in 2009. This has resulted in periods of brilliance mixed with poor reads in the running and passing game and copious turnovers.

Defensive back: In 2005, Brandon Harrison came aboard after his original choice, Notre Dame, fired coach Ty Willingham. Harrison played his freshman year due to injuries ahead of him. The only other two defensive backs, California sleepers Johnny Sears and Chris Richards, proved unable to adjust to college life and football. In 2006, Michigan signed just two defensive backs - highly rated safeties Steve Brown and Jonas Mouton. Both are currently starting at linebacker. Because of the failure of these two classes, Michigan currently has zero fourth or fifth year defensive backs.

In 2007, Michigan brought in four prospects: Donovan Warren, Troy Woolfolk, Michael Williams and Artis Chambers. The first three now start - though Williams seems to have joined the lineup by default - and Chambers transferred out after looking more like a linebacker than a defensive back.

In 2008, highly rated prospects Boubacar Cissoko and Brandon Smith were joined by J.T. Floyd, a last-minute Rodriguez addition. Cissoko turned out to be talented but also unable to handle his responsibilities. Smith was yet another future linebacker. Floyd struggled athletically when forced to play for Cissoko and may have to move to safety to have any chance of starting.

Outcome: This position is the biggest disaster on the team. Michigan currently has four non-freshman defensive backs on its roster who went through spring practice: Warren, Woolfolk, Floyd, and Williams. (Even Jordan Kovacs only made the team after spring ball.) That is an astonishingly low total. The combination of low numbers at this position, high attrition rate, and three safeties who had to be moved down has left almost nothing behind. The 2009 Wolverines have not even been able to play nickel defense.

Rodriguez did attempt to address this dearth by bringing in four freshman in 2009. Unfortunately, none proved able to contribute their first year. At safety, Vladimir Emilien suffered from a combination of lingering high school injury and freshman transition issues. Thomas Gordon has had to learn to play safety, a position at which he had little high school experience. Adrian Witty did not qualify, and Justin Turner missed summer workouts and the beginning of fall camp due to clearinghouse issues. Even if all four develop into quality contributors, this position will remain thin through at least next year.

Defensive tackle: In 2005, Terrance Taylor, James McKinney, and Eugene Germany came in. All showed some ability. Taylor played as a true freshman, and the other two couldn't handle college life. In 2006, Jason Kates and Marques Slocum joined, but they too failed to hang on. Thus the sum of these two classes total was four wipeouts and one non-redshirt.

Michigan desperately needed to reload in its next two classes. Fortunately, none of the defensive tackles in the next two classes wiped out. Unfortunately, there were only two of them. In 2007, Renaldo Sagesse came, and in 2008 Mike Martin.

Outcome: Michigan is now so thin at defensive tackle it had to jerry-rig a new scheme to accommodate the dearth of bodies. Michigan's hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme has struggled to stop the run, though it's hard to blame the scheme: there aren't enough big bodies, and Martin is probably a three-technique defensive tackle playing out of his weight class at nose tackle. Rodriguez also attempted to restock the roster at this position, but the decommitments of Pearlie Graves and DeQuinta Jones left only William Campbell in the incoming class, leaving the need for defensive tackles as dire as ever.

Conclusion: Casual fans understandably judge teams by a handful of big-name players. It's easy to point to Brandon Graham, Donovan Warren, Brandon Minor, and a few others, and conclude that Michigan ought to be competing for the Big Ten championship. But the weakest position on a team can have as much impact as the strongest. Ideally, every coach wants a balanced roster, with experienced players at every position, and enough depth to account for the inevitable reality that some prospects just won't develop into good players.

This is not to say that all the problems of this team are inherited. The coaches have made some mistakes. In a follow-up column, I'll try to sort through which problems stem from past recruiting mistakes, and which can be blamed on the current staff.

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