TheWolverine.com - Scouting report: Previewing Michigan-Purdue

November 6, 2009

Michael Spath
TheWolverine.com Senior Writer

Michigan's offensive line has struggled in recent weeks at protecting quarterback Tate Forcier, allowing nine sacks in consecutive defeats, and now faces one of the Big Ten's best pass-rushing defenses ?

GAME FACTS
What: Purdue at Michigan. When: Nov. 7, 12:01 p.m., in Ann Arbor. Radio-TV: The game will be broadcast live by the Big Ten Network. Wayne Larrivee will handle the play-by-play with Chris Martin serving as the color analyst. The contest will be carried by the Michigan Sports Network (104.3 FM) and its 34 affiliates and can also be heard on Sirius Satellite Radio. History: Michigan leads the series with Purdue, 41-13-0. Last Meeting: Purdue 48, Michigan 42, 2007. Coaches: Michigan: Rich Rodriguez (8-13, second season). Purdue: Danny Hope (3-6, first season). Purdue Notes: Purdue is looking to snap a 16-game losing streak at The Big House this weekend ? With a victory earlier this year over Ohio State, the Boilermakers could post wins over OSU and U-M in the same season for the first time since 2000 ? With its 26-18 win over the seventh-ranked Buckeyes Oct. 7, PU snapped a 19-game winless streak against top 25 opponents ? Sophomore Carson Wiggs' 59-yard field goal against Toledo was the seventh longest in Big Ten history.
MATCHUPS
Matchup	Analysis	Winner
Michigan's Pass Protection Vs. Purdue's Pass Rush	Now is probably not the best time to be facing one of the Big Ten's best pass-rushing teams. The Boilermakers rank fourth in the league with 24 sacks, including a conference-high nine from junior defensive end Ryan Kerrigan. It probably doesn't matter which U-M tackle he matches up with because both fifth-year senior Mark Ortmann and redshirt junior Perry Dorrestein are struggling. The entire line is for that matter, allowing nine takedowns in the past two weeks, including four to an Illinois' front seven that entered play with a mere seven sacks in seven games.
Purdue's Pass Protection Vs. Michigan's Pass Rush	Michigan sold out last weekend to reach the quarterback (but at what cost?) and it paid off some with a season-high four sacks. The Wolverines have been consistent this year, recording at least two takedowns in six of nine contests and now that senior end Brandon Graham is firing on all cylinders, the front seven is even more dangerous. However, U-M faces a stiff challenge this week; the Boilermakers rank fourth in the Big Ten allowing just 14 sacks this season. Purdue's line is not physical, but it is effective and quarterback Joey Elliott doesn't hold onto the ball very long.
Michigan's Rush Offense Vs. Purdue's Rush Defense	Wisconsin gashed the Boilermakers a week ago on the ground, piling up 266 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 37-0 shutout win. Running on Purdue seems to be a winning formula and the Maize and Blue are supposedly the Big Ten's best running team (if you continue to go off the stats). Michigan has to re-establish its ground-game presence, though, this week after being forced to abandon (or willingly giving up) its reliance on the run in losses to Penn State and Illinois. If the Wolverines stick to their game plan, however, they should have a big day.
Purdue's Rush Offense Vs. Michigan's Rush Defense	After starting the season with a bang, rushing for 485 yards in the first two weeks of the season, Purdue has seen its ground game become almost nonexistent in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers are averaging only 105.0 yards in five league contests while sophomore sensation Ralph Bolden is down to a 53.8-yard average in Big Ten games versus the 122.0 yards he averaged in the nonconference. But as bad as they've been slipping, the Boilermakers can count on a matchup with U-M to rejuvenate, or so one would expect after watching the Maize and Blue fold against the run in recent weeks.
Michigan's Pass Offense Vs. Purdue's Pass Defense	Despite a secondary that ranks fourth in the conference in pass defense, allowing just 194.7 yards per game, while listing second with just six touchdowns surrendered through the air and fourth in pass efficiency defense with a 108.1 rating, this matchup is all about what Michigan does. The Boilermakers have surprised many but they still lack the athletes to go one-on-one with the Maize and Blue. However, that won't be a problem if the line cannot protect Forcier and if the young signal-caller continues to make poor decisions with the football (and if his receivers drop balls).	PUSH
Purdue's Pass Offense Vs. Michigan's Pass Defense	Michigan's best hope this week is that Purdue's receivers haven't recovered mentally from the 11 dropped passes they had a week ago and continue to struggle. If that doesn't happen, it could be a long day for a Maize and Blue secondary that ... let's face it, is a big play waiting to happen. U-M's cornerbacks cannot play tight coverage and cannot take chances because if they miss, there is no safety help. Essentially, the Wolverines' poor safety play has taken much of the aggressiveness out of Donovan Warren -- he hasn't had a pass breakup or an interception in three weeks.
Michigan's Special Teams Vs. Purdue's Special Teams	Purdue boasts the Big Ten's strongest-legged kicker in sophomore Carson Wiggs. The Grand Prairie, Texas, native made a 59-yarder against Toledo and added a 55-yarder in a win over Ohio State so there is no attempt off limits to him. However, the rest of the Boilermakers' special teams are quite pathetic. They rank 10th in the Big Ten in net punting at 34.9 yards per punt with senior Chris Summers averaging only 39.1 yards. Perhaps this is the week where U-M breaks a big one (as it did last year at Purdue). The Wolverines certainly need some special teams' help.
Michigan's Coaching Vs. Purdue's Coaching	First-year head coach Danny Hope certainly isn't a proven commodity yet and his on-the-job training has been rough at times (i.e. Notre Dame when he called a timeout for the Irish with less than 30 seconds remaining) but it's not like Michigan's Rich Rodriguez has proven himself far superior this year. The Wolverines need leadership right now as they seek to regain their confidence and it's up to Rodriguez and his staff to instill that confidence in them.	PUSH

PURDUE PLAYERS TO WATCH		PURDUE QUOTES OF THE WEEK
	Sophomore tailback Ralph Bolden One of the Big Ten's top rushers this season, ranking third among conference ball carriers with 757 yards and 84.1 yards per game, the 5-9, 194-pound, Folkston, Ga., native had a superb start to 2009, rushing for 234 yards in a win over Toledo and 123 yards in a week-two loss at Oregon. In the past seven contests, however, he's averaged only 57.1 yards per game. He needs just 243 yards in the final three games, though, to become the ninth Boilermaker with a 1,000-yard campaign.	"There were more things that need to be corrected and more things that need to be addressed, but it wasn't of any negative, it was constructive so we can move on and get ready to win the next game." -- Coach Danny Hope, on bouncing back after last week's loss.
	Junior wide receiver Keith Smith A huge target at 6-2, 226 pounds, Smith has caught at least one ball in 21 straight games. The Fort Hood, Texas, native ranks second in the Big Ten in receptions (6.7 per game) and second in receiving yards (86.6 per game), while scoring four times. Smith has recorded five 100-yard efforts this fall and needs just two more to tie the school record of seven shared by Steve Griffin (1984) and John Standeford (2002).	"You go back to teaching basic fundamentals without harping on it too much. It's like if you're a good free throw shooter and you miss one or two, you don't do go changing a whole lot. You make sure you're doing it the same way every time, concentrating." -- Offensive coordinator Gary Nord, on solving his receivers' dropped-balls problem.
	Junior defensive End Ryan Kerrigan Eighth all time in career sacks among Boilermaker defenders with 17.0, the 6-4, 263-pound, Muncie, Ind., native leads the Big Ten in quarterback takedowns this year with nine and lists third in total stops behind the line of scrimmage with 14.5. He faces off with a U-M offensive line that ranks seventh in the league with 19 sacks allowed.	"We'd like to be able to get some turnovers, put them in some bad situations and get some positive plays for our defense and give our offense the ball in good field position. But I think that's part of their youth. ? They've had some issues that aren't all that different than some of the ones we've had." -- Defensive coordinator Donn Landholm, on forcing the turnovers that have become common for Michigan.
	Senior linebacker Jason Werner Injured often throughout his career, Werner is finally capitalizing on his immense potential this season. The 6-4, 221-pounder leads the Boilermakers with 63 tackles and ranks 17th in the Big Ten with 7.0 per game. He has also been a consistent disruptive force in opposing offensive backfields, matching Kerrigan with a team-high 14.5 tackles for loss.	"I think it's more important now than ever that they have balance. That's something Danny Hope really wants and when you have both a passing game and a running game that can beat you then, obviously, it makes you multi-dimensional and that wasn't a strength of Purdue football for the past decade under Joe Tiller." -- GoldandBlack.com writer Brian Neubert said, in regards to Purdue's success running the football.

PREDICTION
It's cliché, but it's true this week -- early success will be key for both teams and could decide this Saturday's outcome. Both teams are coming off devastating and demoralizing losses a week ago and need something to build on quickly. If one can jump out to a two-score lead by halftime, it will likely spell doom for the opponent. U-M fans are hoping that team is Michigan but there is no guarantee. More likely, however, you will see both teams struggle through some ugly moments with the contest to be decided in the fourth quarter. We're giving the edge to the Wolverines simply because they're at home. Score: Michigan 24, Purdue 21.