14-3-0 over its next 17 (15 regular-season games and at least two playoff contests) to get to that .579 winning percentage that has been typical of the final at-large team in the NCAA Tournament over the last 10 years. Sounds doable. Uh ... That's a tall, tall order. I think it's more likely Michigan finishes under .500 then it goes on a tear. Though maybe with Merrill back, and with Janecyk looking decent enough in net. It's not over until it's over certainly, but they really need to start 3-0 with their first three second-half games at home. 

road I would say that might be a doable thing, well that would be doable if they could actually do it, but all this weekend did was reinforce the fact that this team is jekyl and hyde.  They can put together a period like the third yesterday where they go on a tear, but they were ineffective in almost every phase of the game Saturday and again on Sunday they were just going through the motions for two periods.

I really hope I'm wrong and that my pessimism is misplaced and the switch will get flipped and they will go on the second half run they are known for, but this season continues to feel very different from past seasons.  In past seasons you could tell they were right there and as soon as they fit the last couple of pieces together they were poised to take off.  This year just doesn't feel that way at all.  There just seems to be far more disfunction than function, to many pieces not fitting together and seemingly no real answers as to why.

Perhaps getting Trouba and Merrill (hopefully) back will shore up the defense, but then they still have score goals and yesterdays third period aside, they have struggled to do that all season (at least once they started playing solid competition on a regular basis).

I think you are right on the record, I think they can afford no more than 2 or 3 losses in the second half and that would be just to overtake 4th place in conference and get that first round bye.  I just don't see that happening which means they will most likely have to play that first round playoff series and all of their playoff games will be on the road.  If, by some miracle (at least that what it looks like it will take at this point) they manage to make the NCAA's, well that's a new season for everyone and anything can happen (Michigan fans have certainly seen their share of strange things in the tournament), but right now I would say the string of tournament appearances will end at 22.

Right now the team is 7-10-2, 19 games played meaning they have won roughly 37% of their games.  If they win 37% of their remaining games they would win 6 more games, losing nine for an overall record of 13-19-2.  You would have to go all the way back to Red's second year, 1985-86, to find a team that bad (that team finished 12-26-0).  Man that is just depressing.  Of course that record for 85-86 was the final record and there will be at least some conference tournament games and these projections (based on 1st half results) are only taking regular season games into account, but still right now we are looking at an almost 30 year low if things keep going like they have been.

Well that's enough of thinking about that.  New Years Eve approaches, I think I'll have a beer and forget about hockey for day or two :)

*

without being wildly optimistic (but obviously, requiring better play than exhibited to date):

10-5 for the remainder of the regular season - based on 5-1 in the remaining home games, beating MSU at JLA, and 4-4 in the remaining 8 road games.  This would result in a regular season record of 17-15-2 and CCHA record of 14-12-2 and would probably provide a first round CCHA home playoff series against one of the lower 3 finishing teams (but not a first round bye).

Win the 1st round playoff series 2-0, getting us to 19-15-2.  At this point I think we would be on the NCAA "cusp," with our play in the second round determining whether we make the NCAAs.  If we were to win the second round series 2-0 (admittedly a tall order since it would likely be at ND, Miami or WMU) and then win 1 of 2 at the JLA, we would be 22-16-2 (.575 win percentage) which I think would give us a good shot.

It's true that looked at in the aggregate we've sucked to date and the embarrassing blowout losses to MSU, Cornell, Ferris and MTU really stand out.  On the other hand - 1 bad period in each of the 1st RIT game, 2d Miami game, and either of the NMU games and failing to hold a 2-goal lead in the 2d Ferris game, is what has us at 7-10-2 rather than, say, 11-8-0.

And with respect to Puckhead's last sentence, let me remind you that alcohol has no place in college athletics . . . . .

x

and I think 3-0 after the break is very reasonable. That gets us to .500 and hopefully we build from there.

nfm

I would never count Red out over the second half of the year. Getting Merrill back is probably going to change your team drastically. He is a game changer. I didn't see much of the Tech game - but the 3rd period against us shows me that you guys are certainly capable of doing it.

Now, I know your schedule doesn't help - and one day you're going to have to explain how Michigan would allow the CCHA to send the hockey team on the road during prime time for hockey - I would think someone in your athletic office would complain about that, unless Yost is being used for something else. Don't you play something like 9 of 10 away from Yost (not sure the Joe counts though)? That's harsh - even for a computer spitting a schedule out. I could say the same thing about MSU over the first half of the year.

You probably will still need to go on a run in the CCHA tournament, but I wouldn't count you guys out just yet.

Push comes to shove - just play Merrill 60 minutes a game.

With 15 CCHA games remaining, 6 are at Yost, 8 are on the road and 1 neutral.   Yes, there is a stretch in mid-January to mid-February with 1 home - 8 road - 1 neutral, but there are 5 home games sandwiched around that too. 

Sunday's win over MSU was Michigan's first win this season outside of Yost, and first game in 10 in which they registered a goal in two different periods of a game.

Merrill should help, but he can only do so much.  He was great last January from his return, but was vicitimized in isolated cases in February (MSU, NMU, BGSU) and was below average in the playoffs.    Scorers need to score and goalies need to keep the puck out of the net.   Perhaps Merrill's return will lessen the burden on Trouba, as sometimes I think he tries to do too much given the lack of support in the first half of the season.

Will be interesting to see if they keep the top 4 d-men together, or spread them out.
I'd go with
Merrill-Trouba
Bennett-Moffie
Clare-Serville

Time to represent the M jersey.