Analyzing heavy movement in Michigan vs. Indiana spread
The House tends to win, as they say, so keeping up with Vegas benefits any college football fan, bettor or not.
Michigan football covered a 10.5-point spread at Iowa last week. The No. 4-ranked Wolverines will hit the road again to face Indiana (1-4 against the spread) on Saturday at noon.
On Saturday, the line opened at 17.5, and sharp bettors acted quickly in getting that line out to 23.5 within 24 hours.
Since then, the line has fluctuated between 22.5 and 21.5, and as of Tuesday afternoon, most books are at 22, with a few at 22.5 and MGM at the floor of 21.5.
According to The Action Network, 87% of bets are on the Wolverines, but only 67% of the money is on them, which has more to do with how much Indiana was bought at 23.5 than it does at the line it's at now.
Similar to last week against the Hawkeyes, the line opened with a generous amount of points for the Wolverines, valuing the road game setting for Indiana. Quickly, it was bet on at the first available number, skyrocketed, in this case, up to 23.5, and as it fluctuates, smart bettors are buying Indiana high and Michigan low while Average Joe's buy the in-betweens.
It's Tuesday at the time of writing, so if the line continues to go in U-M's direction while the money continues leaking towards Indiana, that's the same action as we saw last week, in which Michigan won by 13 and covered a line at one point as high as 11.5 that was bought down to 10 by kickoff.
Of course, a large wager on either side could dictate things, too.
Indiana hasn't covered since Week 1 against Illinois in a pick 'em setting, beating the Illini 23-20. The Hoosiers performed miserably in its last two games, failing to cover as 16.5-point underdogs against Cincinnati and as 6.5-point dogs against lowly Nebraska last week.
Michigan is 3-2 ATS this season, failing to cover a 17-point spread in a 7-point win over Maryland and a 52-point spread in a 46-point win over Hawaii.
Keep your eyes peeled on the line as Saturday inches closer, but it looks like the Wolverines should have three possessions of separation this week if any Vegas is any indication.
I'm willing to bet it is.
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