By the Numbers: Colston Loveland WR1 in 2024

Michigan Football is heading into 2024 with some question marks at wide receiver. In the portal, they added two players, former Michigan WR/DB Amorion Walker and Youngstown State transfer CJ Charleston. Neither addresses the perceived need for a big outside WR target. The answer may already be on the roster.

Colston Loveland is not an unknown commodity. One of Michigan's best weapons in the passing game last season, many analysts predict Loveland will be the best tight end in college football this season and potentially a first-round pick in the next NFL Draft. This is because of a combination of talent and opportunity.

I am willing to go a step further and say Loveland will be so elite at tight end that he will transcend the position like some of the recent first-round caliber tight ends, Kyle Pitts and Brock Bowers. Colston Loveland will be WR1 for Michigan in 2024.

Now, any regular readers of By the Numbers know we don't make these arguments unless the data takes us there, so let's get into the numbers.

Throughout Jim Harbaugh's tenure, tight ends have consistently been the 2nd or 3rd receivers in the offense. So, these numbers showing Loveland, Roman Wilson, and Cornelius Johnson all in the realm shouldn't be too surprising, except for how good Wilson was this year. Receptions are essentially within the margin of error. Wilson has a big advantage in yards, but maybe that's not too surprising with depth of target. More on that in a bit.

Surprisingly to me, Loveland led the team in yards after the catch. Loveland also had the longest reception of the year, a 54-yarder against Indiana. The glaring advantage for Wilson obviously comes in the touchdown department.

I remembered Wilson's hot start last season and Loveland's slower start. I was curious what the numbers might look like from Loveland's first TD catch against Minnesota on.

6 of Wilson's 12 touchdowns came against non-conference opponents, and 2 more came against Nebraska in week 5. Interestingly enough, from Minnesota on, in Michigan's last ten games of the season, Loveland was equal with Wilson.

Near identical receptions and yards and the same 4 touchdowns. Loveland still has an edge in YAC, and both with high 1st down to reception output. I am not trying to downplay Roman Wilson's season or fudge the numbers to my argument. Still, it is interesting that in the meat of Michigan's schedule, Loveland was arguably WR1 or WR1B in the offense.

The exciting thing about Loveland isn't just what he has done already or the potential leap he could take in a junior season. It's the untapped potential that existed even last season.

With Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan, Michigan has their Z and slot receivers who can make explosive plays, especially when they get into space. Fred Moore is penciled in at X receiver and might be the fastest in the group. And while Michigan hopes Amorion Walker can be the bigger target, it's asking a lot of him to be the top target.

What makes Loveland so great as a receiving weapon is his versatility. He can attack defenses from anywhere with a diverse route tree.

Nearly half of Loveland's reps on passing plays came from the slot. Another ~19% came lined up outside, meaning 68% of Loveland's reps were setup like a receiver. Only 31.6% of his snaps came in line, and he was used as a blocker in the passing game less than 5% of the time.

You don't have to wonder if Loveland can make an impact on the outside or in the slot because he already has. With Morris sliding into the Z role and Morgan more of a slot, Loveland's outside numbers could go up even higher. Why is that crazy? Because Loveland's 18.9% wide snaps led all tight ends in Power 5 conferences and was the third highest rate in all of college football.

So. We know Loveland can post WR1-level production because he has. We know he can be used like a wide receiver, in the slot and on the outside, because he has, and at a level above the rest of college football. But one of the most important aspects of the X receiver, or that #1 target, is the deep threat.

Michigan has hardly gone deep a ton in recent years, and I don't think anyone expects them to change much now. But when it comes to Loveland, they should have gone deep to him more often, and they very likely will in 2024.

These numbers on throws of 20 yards or more are absurd. Literally perfect, in fact, a 99.9 receiving rating on PFF and a 158.3 QB rating when targeted. Only 11.3% of Loveland's targets came on deep throws, and you have to wonder why?

7 targets and 7 receptions for 206 yards. 3 of those 7 receptions were touchdowns, also meaning 75% of Loveland's touchdowns last season, came on deep throws.

His 7 targets were good for 18th in college football among tight ends, his 7 receptions were tied for the most in the nation. His 206 yards were the most in the Power 5, and third most in college football. Colston Loveland is already the best deep ball threat tight end in college football. If Michigan doesn't target him more, it would be a massive wasted opportunity.

Can Colston Loveland be WR1 in 2024? After looking at the data, I would be significantly more shocked if he weren't. As a sophomore, Loveland was already right there with Michigan's experienced receivers Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, and arguably head in Michigan's last 2/3 of the schedule. Heading into his junior year, he is the experienced weapon in the passing game.

We know Loveland can line up like a receiver because he did last year. Nearly half of his snaps were in the slot, and no one in the Power 5 lined up outside more than he did. With the expectation those numbers could go up, you almost start to look at Loveland as more of a receiver than a tight end, similar to what we saw with previous elite college tight ends like Brock Bowers and Kyle Pitts.

When it comes to being the deep threat outside receiver Michigan needs, Loveland has already shown that he can be that, even if the Wolverines didn't take full advantage. Loveland was the best deep ball threat tight end in college football last season, it is fair to assume he will be again and if Michigan takes full advantage the ceiling on his numbers are almost impossible to predict.

So, we are left with a scenario of not trying to project or predict whether Loveland can do what it takes to be WR1. We have to ask if Michigan will take advantage of the weapon he has already been. Can Loveland be WR1 for Michigan in 2024? He already is.

---

Discuss this article with our community on our premium message boards

Not a subscriber to Maize & Blue Review? Sign up today to gain access to all the latest Michigan intel M&BR has to offer

Follow our staff on Twitter: @JoshHenschke, @Berry_Seth14, @TrevorMcCue, @DennisFithian, @BrockHeilig, @JimScarcelli, @Jerry_Diorio

Subscribe to our podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify

Check out Maize & Blue Review's video content on YouTube

Follow Maize & Blue Review on social media: Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram