By the Numbers: Comparing Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy & MSU QB Payton Thorne

Plenty of focus has been placed on the two quarterbacks in the upcoming rivalry game between Michigan and Michigan State. There seem to be lots of narratives and assumptions about JJ McCarthy and Payton Thorne, and it is impacting what level of expectations fans have.

Let's take a deep dive into the numbers, see where narratives lead to truth and where they lead to fiction. What differences exist and what can we infer will be part of the gameplans for Michigan and Michigan State this Saturday.

J.J. McCarthy currently leads the nation in completion percentage, while Thorne's 65.1% is 7th in the Big Ten. Thorne has more yards but on 65 more attempts, hence McCarthy's yards per attempt advantage. Thorne has thrown 2 more touchdowns, but also 5 more interceptions. McCarthy has had some close calls with 6 turnover-worthy plays, while Thorne has 8, 5 of which came in the Spartan's first three games but so did 7 of his touchdowns. They are remarkably similar here, as each as a TWP on roughly 3% of snaps.

We've discussed McCarty's struggles on deep passes multiple times this season. He has completed multiple elite-level throws on passes 20+ but what sticks out is some of the misses on deeper fly routes to open receivers.

Michigan has largely gone away from the deeper passes in Big Ten play, for a few reasons. Maybe the most obvious is Michigan doesn't need to hit those plays to win games, but defenses have also schemed to prevent a deep shot touchdown. McCarthy has done an excellent job in Big Ten play of taking what the defense gives him, and of course, the Wolverine run game has this offense looking a lot like it did in 2021.

Thorne's chart has some similarities to McCarthy but also pretty obvious differences.

On deep throws, Thorne has a 37% completion rate compared to McCarthy's 35% but with 15 more attempts. 6 of Thorne's touchdowns have come on throws over 20 yards.

Big separation occurs with intermediate throws. Thorne has completed only 44% of his throws of 10-19 yards and has thrown 4 interceptions. It is also the area of the field Thorne targets the least, throwing in that range only 13% of the time.

Throne throws heavily just beyond the line of scrimmage like McCarthy does but what stuck out to me is how many throws are behind the line of scrimmage. 24% of Thorne's throws are short of the line compared to 15% for McCarthy.

MSU appears to rely on the screen with 28 of Thorne's 46 attempts behind the line going to screen passes. Spartan receivers have dropped 3 of those passes. The Spartans have two primary targets behind the line.
- RB Jalen Berger: 15 targets with an -2.7 average depth of target
- TE Tyler Hunt: 17 targets with a 3.2 average depth of target.

Thorne had his best game in the Spartan's last game against Wisconsin. He completed 21 of 28 passes for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thorne threw 6 passes over 20 yards, completing 4 for 107 yards. Both of his touchdowns came on longer throws. Thorne's longtime friend and teammate Jayden Reed appeared to be healthy, getting 9 targets and catching each for 117 yards and 1 of Thorne's touchdowns. The other went to two-sport star Keon Coleman.

McCarthy's success in play action is well documented. JJ has had a perfect or near-perfect passer rating on play-action throws throughout the season. With Michigan's powerful run game and McCarthy's quick legs and ability to throw on the run, it is pretty obvious why the sophomore is so successful. Michigan has only run 32 play-action snaps. but many anticipate that number to rise in the back half of the season.

McCarthy has a ridiculous 14.3 YPA on play-action plays, nearly double the rest of his throws.

Michigan State runs a larger percentage share of play action but does not have the clear statistical advantage that Michigan has with McCarthy.

His completion percentage is nearly identical and only has a slight YPA advantage, 8.9 in play action. Thorne also doesn't have any sort of TD/INT benefit in play action either with 5% of PA throws being TDs and 3.5% being interceptions. Compare that to McCarthy's 12.5% TD rate on play-action throws and 0 interceptions.

You would expect a quarterback to have better passing numbers when kept clean in the pocket, you hope there isn't much of a disparity.

JJ is surprisingly consistent regardless of pressure. There is a 16% drop off in completion percentage, but given McCarthy completes nearly 4 out 5 passes when clean, you would expect. What is surprising is the yards per attempt are only separated by a yard and that both of McCarthy's interceptions came from a clean pocket.

Playing by Michigan's offensive line is an obvious benefit, as McCarthy only sees pressure on 1 out of 5 dropbacks. McCarthy's ability to escape and extend plays allows receivers to adjust and find open spots on the field for JJ to throw to. Along with his impact on the run game, this may be one of the better measures of McCarthy's ability to bring the offense to another level.

Obviously, there are risks when a defense has to send a blitz to create pressure, so if you have a quarterback who struggles under pressure and you can create that pressure with 4-man fronts, you have a massive advantage.

This, paired with Michigan's corners finding success in man coverage, is arguably the key to the Wolverines' pass defense on Saturday.

Thorne completes only 51.2% of his throws when under pressure for 5 yards per pass attempt. The other obvious number that sticks out here is the 4 interceptions. 6.5% of dropbacks being intercepted creates an obvious target for Michigan. Thorne is a very good scrambler, escaping the pocket 12 times for 94 yards and 9 first downs. He has been sacked 13 times this season, but Michigan's pass rush will want to get home and not allow Thorne to escape.

Michigan State throws the ball more, not shocking, but this hasn't led to more success in the passing game. McCarthy is significantly more efficient at raising his yards per attempt.

While McCarthy and Thorne have both been inconsistent on deep throws, Thorne has shown flashes of success, especially with a healthy Jayden Reed. McCarthy thrives on intermediate throws, and it is Thorne's weakest rage. MSU has a lean to screen passes and plays behind the LOS but they aren't getting breakaway yards on those plays.

In play action, McCarthy is nearly perfect and shows significant stat increases across the board in those plays. Thorne runs a larger share of play-action plays but his stats are similar regardless of concept.

When it comes to facing pressure the most obvious disparity arises. Both QBs are mobile enough and good enough scramblers to evade pressure, but Thorne has faced far more behind a less talented offensive line. He is also far more inaccurate and throws more interceptions and takes more sacks.

For Michigan, the key with JJ will be the same as it has been all season. Taking what the defense gives you and execute play action with an established run game. Michigan State is weak in pass coverage, so there may be an opportunity for McCarthy to look deep more in this one. Coaches have done a great job of dialing up the shots, JJ just has to connect.

Michigan State will be focused on keeping Thorne clean against a Michigan pass rush that has evolved. Running the ball is essential to winning in this rivalry, but even if MSU is able to establish a run game it doesn't appear there will be a strong benefit to the play-action game. Expect Thorne to look to stretch the field with Reed and Coleman if Michigan isn't able to make him uncomfortable in the pocket.

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