By the Numbers: Semaj Morgan Breakout to Star in 2024

Last season, Semaj Morgan put together a breakout freshman campaign as part of Michigan's National Championship season. With Michigan's veteran receivers, Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson headed to the NFL, a lot of attention and pressure is headed Morgan's way.

So, what made Morgan's freshman season a breakout? Where was he successful and why? And when we look forward to 2024, do the numbers show an opportunity for more?

By the Numbers is our data-driven series where we dig deep into narratives or try to project future results but we let the numbers do the talking. This is a premium feature throughout the football season, so if you like this kind of content and aren't a subscriber, be sure to join Maize & Blue Review.

Let's start with overall productivity conversion by snaps.

Morgan, Tyler Morris, Roman Wilson, and Cornelius Johnson were the top 4 wide receivers by snaps, targets, and receptions. I am leaving running backs and tight ends out for most of these comparisons.

Kind of surprised to see Morgan only played 75 snaps where he was running a route. However, he only had 12 routes in the first 4 games and a surprisingly low number, 7 combined, against Penn State, Ohio State, and Washington. Morgan has 8 routes run against Alabama.

What sticks out right away is 6 more targets than Morris and less than half the snaps. In fact, Morgan led receivers with a target on 36% of his routes. His 29.3% receptions per route is nearly identical to Wilson and Johnson combined. This shows high productivity on limited opportunity. Will that theme continue?

Morgan finished the year as WR3 behind veterans Wilson and Johnson. One area where he excelled was after the catch. Morgan led receivers with a 7.1 Yard After Catch per reception. He also had a team-high 8 missed tackles forced on receptions. It's more impressive, considering he had more than Wilson and Johnson combined on a quarter of the receptions.

We saw on multiple plays last season how electric Morgan can be with the ball. People will scoff at anything that sounds like "speed and space" but getting Semaj the ball with room to work pays dividends and will be a massive part of the 2024 game plan.

Another area where Morgan excelled in 2023 was converting routes and targets into productivity. Morgan led receivers with receptions on 81.5% of his targets, he was second to Johnson getting receptions on 75% of his contested targets, 3 for 4. Johnson went 9-11 for an impressive 81.8%.

When considering the potential for more productivity with more opportunities, Morgan's team-leading 2.72 yards per route run stands out. More so when Morgan's average depth of target was more than 10 yards short of Wilson's but with near identical Y/RR. We'll get into Morgan's shorter target depth in a moment, but this shows Morgan maximized his routes and targets last season.

Why does Morgan have such a short ADOT? Because 14 of his 27 targets came behind the line of scrimmage. I have included Donovan Edwards here because both were used with a high ratio behind the line, both converted all targets into receptions and arguably, both have the potential to be bigger weapons down the field in 2024.

73 yards on 14 receptions don't sound strong on its own, but with all targets occurring behind the line, and you see that yardage came from an 8.9-yard after the catch per reception average. We saw earlier Morgan's ability to break tackles, so seeing 6 missed tackles forced is not surprising. 5 first downs on 14 receptions on passes behind the line? Also impressive.

Morgan had a breakout freshman campaign because he maximized his opportunities. It isn't much more complicated than that. He led receivers in yards per route run despite lagging in routes run. He accomplished that by breaking tackles and getting yards after the catch. He had to accumulate much of his yards that way because many of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage.

Maximized productivity on limited opportunities. Lead receivers in multiple efficiency categories. That's a breakout season for a freshman who carved out a role in rotations.

Heading into 2024, Morgan's role has expanded. Along with Morris, he is expected to be a top receiver for Michigan. So, will Morgan's productivity continue to rise with his gain in opportunities? It's fair to assume we will see a drop in conversions, but there is potential for much more.

Slot productivity. Michigan's offensive scheme thrives with slot receivers. Last season, Wilson and Johnson combined for 133 targets on slot routes last season. Morgan had the next-highest total for WRs, with all of his 27 targets coming from the slot. With Morgan the starting slot receiver in 2024, and so much production from that spot gone, we could see a massive jump from the sophomore. Edwards and TE Colston Loveland will continue to get run here as well, but on paper, Morgan could be a force from the slot.

You can't discount Morgan's breakout season, as it is hard to imagine him doing more than what he did with the opportunities he was given. His high productivity will meet high opportunities in 2024. If Morgan can continue to be productive and elevate his game, he could be Michigan's star receiver this season.

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