Column: CFP fails to make the case for not ranking Michigan #1
Michigan's 45-23 win over Ohio State in Columbus is the best win on any team's resume this season. There was debate heading into the College Football Playoff ranking reveal that Michigan would pass Georgia for the #1 ranking on the heels of their blowout win over the Buckeyes. Boo Corrigan, CFP Chair, agrees it was a blowout win, but not until later in the game.
"It was talked about in the committee room that going into really early in the fourth quarter the game was still close," Corrigan said. "That being said, you can't completely dismiss the way the fourth quarter ended with Michigan kind of taking over the game there late."
Does Georgia have a case to be ranked #1? Of course, does Michigan have a case? Absolutely. The issue isn't with the rankings themselves, it is once again the logic. Here, Corrigan is arguing that while the game ended with Michigan winning convincingly, they also noted the game was close going into the 4th quarter. So the committee is willing to break down the best win of the college football season into quarters, but then he also says this.
"We're looking at everything and looking at the full body of work."
The full body of work, the entire resume, should be part of the conversation. But are you looking at the full body of work when you are also downgrading Michigan's win over Ohio State because it was close going into the 4th quarter? We've seen this already where Michigan's win over Penn State has been seemingly downgraded because the Wolverines essentially beat the Nittany Lions by too much. The win was so dominating, it lowered the perception of Penn State which is now ranked #8 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The committee is not downgrading their perception of Ohio State from this loss either, the Buckeyes had won every game this season by double digits before losing to the Wolverines.
"There's a lot of respect for Ohio State in the room and the wins they've had this year, so again, taking the full body of work, it was certainly something we looked at, but it wasn't, it's a blowout, let's move on."
Despite his call to move on another reporter asked again, what went into the decision to keep Georgia ahead of Michigan when Georgia was not superb against Georgia Tech?
"Georgia did nothing against Georgia Tech for people to look at that game in a way that it was a watershed moment, if you will, for Georgia. Georgia over the entire season, the win over Oregon, the win over Tennessee, the win over South Carolina and Mississippi State gives them four wins over teams ranked in the top 25, and Michigan, even with that win, has a win over Ohio State as well as a win over Penn State, two great wins, but the four wins versus the two wins, taking over the whole body of work, we ended up with Georgia No. 1 and Michigan No. 2."
The full body of work, again. Georgia has four top-25 wins while Michigan only has two. Michigan's two wins of course are over 11-1 Ohio State, now ranked #5 and previously ranked #2. And 10-2 Penn State, now ranked #8 with its only two losses coming against Michigan and Ohio State.
Georgia's wins are over 9-3 #15 Oregon, who has lost to Washington and Oregon State in the last three weeks. #19 South Carolina and #24 Mississippi State are each 8-4. Of course, their big win of the season was over now ranked #7 Tennessee. The Volunteers were ranked #1 in the first CFP rankings while Georgia was #3. With the win, the Bulldogs jumped to #1.
"The recency bias is something we do talk about on a regular basis."
Again, the issue is not necessarily the rankings, it's the logic. So recency bias prevents Michigan from going to #1 with the biggest win of the season, but it did not stop Georgia from jumping Ohio State when they beat Tennessee.
Georgia also gets extra credit for wins over 8-4 South Carolina and Mississippi State, who they have ranked in the top 25, but Michigan doesn't get credit for a win over 8-4 Illinois because they chose not to rank them. Or wins over 7-5 Iowa and Maryland who played 9 conference games compared to SEC opponents who play 8. With those extra games South Carolina played 3-9 Charlotte and Mississippi State played 3-8 East Tennessee State. So for as much as the committee focuses on Michigan's 3-game non-conference schedule where they outscored their opponents 166-17, no attention seems to be paid to the extra win the SEC teams get for only playing 8 conference games.
Does any of this matter? When you are taking care of business on the field, maybe not. At this point, Michigan and Georgia are heavy favorites to win their conference championship games, will be favorites to win their semifinal matchups, and are on a collision course for a rematch in the National Championship game. You can only control the things that you can control, for Michigan that is winning the next game.
There is a case for Georgia at 1 and Michigan at 2, but once again the CFP committee fails to make its case and says, "let's move on." So move on we shall, to Indianapolis where Michigan is a win against Purdue away from their first back-to-back outright Big Ten Championships since 1991-92.
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