ESPN's FPI Projects Michigan Football To Win 10.5 Games

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With the Big Ten Media Day just over a week away, preseason projections and rankings continue to be unveiled.

ESPN recently released its Football Power Index metric for 2019, which is its analytical measure of each college football team.

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season,” ESPN says on its website. “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the Wolverines to win 10.5 this upcoming season and slots Michigan fifth in its rankings. The only teams ahead of Michigan heading into fall camp are Clemson, Alabama, Georgia and LSU, in that order.

Michigan will play five teams in the current top 25 of the FPI rankings, with Notre Dame coming in at No. 7, Penn State at No. 12, Ohio State at No. 13, Michigan State at No. 14 and Iowa at No. 23.

ESPN gives Michigan a 8.2 percent chance of winning every game this season and a 48.2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten. In 11 of 12 games, FPI gives Michigan a 60 percent chance or better to win the game. The only game below that mark is at Penn State and FPI projects that Michigan has a 58.3 percent chance to win that matchup.

The Wolverines have five games — Middle Tennessee, Army, Rutgers, Illinois and Maryland — that FPI gives them over a 90 percent chance of winning.

The rankings currently think the Wolverines have a 76.6 percent chance of beating Ohio State and a 62.9 percent chance of beating Notre Dame this season. The Buckeyes are only projected to win 8.7 games this fall, while the Irish are projected to win 9.4.

Last season, Michigan finished fourth in the country in ESPN’s FPI with a rating of 83.6, which trailed only Alabama, Georgia and Clemson.

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