Eyes on the Enemy: Breaking down Illinois

Michigan will clash with a lesser version of itself in Illinois on Saturday.

Once a Big Ten darling on a 7-game win streak, the Fighting Illini are losers of two straight, continuing the trend of "who can ruin Michigan's strength of schedule the most this week?"

For Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines, looking ahead isn't even a thought -- or so they say. And while I believe it to be genuine, every team -- even the wisest -- is vulnerable to looking ahead at the shadow of the beast.

Ohio State's footsteps are near, but if Chase Brown is healthy, so is his.

Many moons ago, Michigan had a chance at perfection in The Shoe, only to end the season with two losses.

In 2022, history will either repeat itself or forge a new path through the backwoods of an age-old rivalry that one foe has manhandled for two decades.

Take care of business & it's all on the line next week.

Who's in the way? Let's take a look at Illinois.

Game: Saturday, November 19; @ Michigan Stadium, 12 PM

Spread: MICH -17.5 (as of 11/18)

Total: 41.5

Picks: ILL +17.5, over 41.5

Head Coach: Brett Bielema

Record: 7-3 overall, 4-3 Big Ten

Key Wins: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa

Losses: Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue

What to know: Illinois won seven straight after losing its opener to Indiana. The wheels have fallen off the last two weeks with subsequent losses to Michigan State & Purdue. Chase Brown might play, but he's not 100%, and without him, there may be no offense from the Illini. Bielema's defense is playing at a national level -- No. 2 in rush success, No. 6 in Line Yards, No. 7 in Defensive Pass Success, No. 3 in Havoc, and No. 2 in Finishing Drives. However, Purdue put up 31 on them at home.

Illinois -- despite Chase Brown's exceptional season -- is a defensive team.

The offense is 76th in Rush Success, 82nd in Line Yards, and 111th in Finishing Drives.

Brown is a star, leading college football with 1,442 rushing yards, but faces his most daunting challenge this week against Michigan (6th in Defensive Rush Success).

Transfer QB Tommy DeVito garnered a lot of preseason skepticism, but he has more touchdowns (15) than J.J. McCarthy (14), passing yards (2,083 yards to 1,744), and a higher completion percentage (70 % to 69%). And with a running back who has 280 carries -- 42 more than any other back in the conference and 53 more than Blake Corum.

Still, the offensive success doesn't match up, and while Michigan's offense is unequivocally better than Illinois', DeVito isn't incapable of dropping back more if Brown is banged up.

Illinois will have success again this season, but against a Michigan defense that counters their attack with a stout front in the run game & a well-designed back-end that's blending man & zone with a top-five coverage defense holding offenses to a 20% Success Rate on Passing Downs & only 31% overall.

Michigan has three No. 1 corners in D.J. Turner, Gemon Green, and Will Johnson, and one of the best nickels in the conference in Mike Sainristil. The defensive line remains its strongest unit, with Mike Morris & Mazi Smith playing exceptionally well.

It's a group Illinois hasn't seen anything close to this season, having not played Penn State or Ohio State.

The team total for Illinois is 10.5, so that's how Vegas sees this matchup going.

This is where Illinois matches up evenly with Michigan in many departments.

The Illini defense holds offenses to 2.6 Points Per Opportunity with a 24% Havoc Rate, a 22% Success Rate on Passing Downs & 30% overall.

Michigan is madly efficient & has the second-least turnovers in college football, so they will counter what Illinois does to cause chaos.

Illinois is giving up 0.9 second-level yards per rush, so big runs will be a challenge, though you can argue that Blake Corum cancels out any team's rush defense metrics.

Illinois' ability to limit explosive runs is most concerning for Michigan but similar to the offense, Corum is their toughest matchup yet.

Michigan needs to get some things right before it takes a business trip to the Middle of Ohio next week.

Last year, the Wolverines did that, beating Maryland 59-18 after a 21-17 win over Penn State & a 29-7 win over Indiana.

This feels familiar.

Against an inferior opponent, Michigan once again rolls and successfully forces some things in the air with McCarthy, who has the talent but could use some more usage (28% on Standard Downs).

Hold your breath, and try not to think about Ohio State until the clock shows four zeroes.

Michigan 35 Illinois 7