Eyes on the Enemy: Full Maryland preview

Eyes on the Enemy is MBR's weekly preview of Michigan's upcoming opponent.

Finally, Michigan has an opponent we can scout.

Maryland is the first opponent on U-M's schedule without a first-year head coach at the helm, filled with new transfers throughout the roster.

The Terrapins are undefeated, with a ton of offensive experience and a decent group of defensive personnel.

Let's look at the team coming to Ann Arbor for homecoming on Saturday.

Head coach: Mike Locksley (15-18 at Maryland)

Offensive scheme: Pro Spread

Defensive scheme: 4-3

2021 record: 7-6

2022 record: 3-0

Maryland is undefeated, with its best win coming at home over SMU, which they trailed 13-3 with just under five minutes left in the first half before Antwain Littleton ran a touchdown in from the goal line to make it 13-10.

Following the late score in the first half, the Terps' defense intercepted a pass from the Mustangs and set up Taulia Tagovailoa for a 48-yard touchdown pass to Rakim Jarrett the next play.

And this game flow is the epitome of Maryland under Mike Locksley.

SMU would answer with a 30-yard pass that a few plays later turned into an SMU touchdown on a jet pass to a multi-dimensional wideout, Austin Upshaw, who plays a role like AJ Henning's.

By halftime, SMU regained the lead, making it 20-17 before the half; after two touchdowns from Maryland, within two minutes, flipped the score from 13-3 to 17-13.

Maryland was down 27-20, at home, in the fourth before an interception set them up to tie the game and one of many big runs for Maryland RB Roman Hemby put the Terps in the red zone to close the game.

So that's where Locksely's team is at coming into Ann Arbor. Perhaps they were looking ahead, or Maryland isn't that good after all.

We'll find out for sure tomorrow but until then, let's dive in.

Locksley's offense, per usual, is high-octane and isn't afraid to take chances.

Taulia Tagovailoa averaged 36 passing attempts per game in 2021 but only attempted 23 passes against SMU, going for 214 yards with a 74% completion percentage, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.

That was likely by design, considering SMU's rushing defense ranks 117th in the country, allowing over 220 rushing yards per game.

Tagovailoa and this Terrapins offense are still most dangerous when they can pass the ball, but play-action is still the X-factor. Tagovailoa isn't a sprinter, but he has the legitimate running ability to account for in RPO designs, going for nearly 60 yards on the ground against SMU.

The Maryland offense is most dangerous when Rakim Jarrett has the ball in his hands. A slot monster and future pro, Jarrett had a game-breaking play against SMU where he lined up in the slot and ran a crossing route to the opposite hash, where Tagovailoa put it on a dime for a 48-yard touchdown.

After the SMU game, all eyes are on the potential of a balanced attack for Maryland. Still, given the brutality of SMU's Rush D, it isn't easy to buy into that narrative this quickly.

RB Roman Hemby took 16 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown last week.

Against Michigan's enormous front and lockdown defensive backs, how will it work for Maryland's offense vs. Michigan's defense?

Glad you asked.

Maryland scoring offense: 40.3 PPG (18th)

Michigan scoring defense: 5.7 PPG (5th)

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Maryland passing offense: 311.7 (21st)

Michigan passing defense: 91.3 (3rd)

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Maryland total offense: 502.0 (12th)

Michigan total defense: 194 (4th)

Michigan will need to get to Tagovailoa to force errant throws, although he excels at making throws on the run.

Maryland is only allowing one sack per game through three games. Despite Michigan's pass rush numbers or lack thereof outside of Colorado State, the Terrapins' experienced O-line hasn't faced a front nearly as good as one with Mazi Smith and Co. in the middle.

If the front-seven for Michigan can't get to Taulia, that opens up too much time for him to pick apart the defense with options across the board at wideout, namely Jarrett.

Nickel Mike Sainristil has looked great in filling Dax Hill's pressure role, and his story is admirable. I know he has defensive roots, but to look this good, this quickly is something.

We're about to find out just how good Sainristil is because Jarrett will be arguably his toughest assignment of the season in the slot.

Take a look at what Jarrett did against SMU on his deep touchdown.

Editor's note: if the video doesn't automatically do it, start at 3:25

Jarrett is in the slot to the right of the tight end. Maryland has a tight end as an extra blocker to give Tagovailoa as much time as possible to let Jarrett's crossing route open up.

SMU has one single-high safety and staggers 3 linebackers in the middle with three corners, one playing nearly 10 yards off Jarrett.

Off the snap, all the defenders in the box for SMU bite at the Maryland play-action, set up by a massive day on the ground from both the backs and Tagovailoa.

Jarrett isn't 10 yards from the LOS before he's already open, but Tagovailoa elects to wait.

And it's a good thing he did because Jarrett's speed combined with Tagovailoa's instincts and accuracy allowed them to turn a 10-yard completion into a 48-yard touchdown score.

Not a man in sight.

Maryland's offense, ironically enough, will need to be successful running the ball to be successful in passing the ball if it has any chance against Michigan.

I know this sounds elementary, but the narratives surrounding Maryland as an Air Raid offense shouldn't exist after watching how they schemed against SMU.

Maryland's most successful, game-breaking play against SMU's poor defense came on a play-action cross.

Locksley is clearly confident in this offensive line, and the athletes are making the protection worth it, as Jarrett and Hemby combined for over 200 yards and two touchdowns last week.

It looks like Maryland's head coach finally figured out play-action and how it benefits his strong-armed, quick-legged QB.

Michigan's defense is better and far more athletic than any Maryland will face outside of Ohio State.

I think Maryland has success but not enough.

The Michigan defense's cornerback duo of DJ Turner and Gemon Green may be one of the three best cornerback duos in college football. That should be enough to keep the Terrapins on Earth on the scoreboard.

I have them scoring 27 against Michigan.

Where this g,ame hits the fan is figuring out a way for Maryland's passing defense, which allowed 369 yards against SMU, will shut down J.J. McCarthy and the No. 1 scoring offense in America.

Durell Nchami leads Maryland's edge rushers in snaps with the best pass-rush grade on the team at 66.1. However, Greg China-Rose has had a big start to the year, grading out at 86.1 against the run in 35 run defense snaps.

The interior tackles have been tremendous for Maryland, with an 86.3-run defense grade from LB Mosiah Nasili-Kite. Anthony Booker Jr. is the best of the bunch, with a position-high 76.1 overall grade.

Jaishawn Barham is the name to look for in the backfield as the team's best-graded pass rusher with a 74.0 grade and a 76.4 overall grade.

Still, only one player on the roster has multiple sacks through three weeks, Henry Chibueze, and he's a pass-rush specialist with a 63.1 pass-rush grade.

The pass defense is miserable, and the pass rush doesn't help them.

On 3rd & medium for SMU, Mordecai tossed a nearly 40-yard completion for a first down.

Why? He had all the time in the world as Maryland rushed three, yet his wideout was wide open over the middle.

Look at how much room Mordecai had along with his running back checking & releasing without anyone near him.

The depth of the linebackers here is a concern. Maryland is playing in front of the marker to hold SMU on third.

Showing no respect for Mordecai's arm and ability to go through his progressions with enough time to watch an episode of Game of Thrones while he's in the pocket, Maryland allows a chunk play on 3rd & medium. Not a recipe for success as the schedule gets more challenging.

This matchup is where the rubber meets the road in the Maryland Miracle Project on Saturday in Ann Arbor.

Michigan's O-line hasn't performed as expected, but with health anticipated, it should be the first game the starters get four quarters to mash together.

The defending Joe Moore Award winners should dominate a lackluster Maryland front that will get creative with the usage of pass rushers but can the creativity fool a team running as much misdirection and blitz counters as Michigan?

SMU ran this pistol set jet touch pass against Maryland, resulting in an untouched score.

Michigan fans should know that offensive coordinators Matt Weiss and Sherrone Moore like dialing Jet Touches and Sweeps to Roman Wilson, AJ Henning, and Donovan Edwards.

The underneath game has been a well-oiled machine for the Wolverines so far. Wilson has a 61-yard touchdown on a bubble screen and a touchdown run on a jet sweep, similar to the above design.

While Michigan can still be the ground-and-pound offense that led Blake Corum to five touchdowns against UConn and Hassan Haskins to five against Ohio State a year ago, it's adjusted to a more creative and adaptive offense with McCarthy under center.

Maryland's cornerback room has only one player above a 70.0 coverage grade (Tarheeb Still, 7.5), making another telling mismatch.

Between McCarthy's arm, Michigan's run fits, and the offense's overall versatility, this should be like Field Day for the sophomore QB and the experienced offense surrounding him.

There are too many ways for Michigan's offense to succeed against Maryland's defense to think U-M's unit won't flourish for a fourth straight week.

Maybe the most telling statistic of all is penalties.

Michigan is the least penalized team in the Power Five, while Maryland is the third-most, averaging over 10 per game.

I think the SMU game was ultra-flukey and included a ton of luck going Maryland's way in a game they played undisciplined and without many encouraging designs defensively.

Still, Tagovailoa should succeed, and I believe Jarrett will get the best of Sainristil on the day.

That won't be enough to contain McCarthy and the Michigan offense that is far too good not to pick apart an improved but still below-average Maryland defense.

Expect Michigan's offense to out-design the heck out of Maryland on Saturday in a high-scoring affair that sees the Terrapins hot early and cold late.

Prediction: Michigan 52, Maryland 27

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