Eyes on the Enemy: Iowa vs. Michigan Preview

Eyes on the Enemy is MBR's weekly preview of Michigan's upcoming opponent.

The training wheels are off and Big Ten play is moving along as Michigan travels to Iowa for a conference crossover battle.

Kinnick Stadium is where “top 5 teams go to die,” as U-M head coach Jim Harbaugh said during his weekly press conference.

The only other time a Jim Harbaugh-led Michigan team traveled to Iowa was in 2016.

Similar to this team, they were undefeated and ranked inside the top 5.

Can the No. 4 Wolverines escape Iowa City with a win? Or will the magic of Kinnick strike again?

Head coach: Kirk Ferentz (181-111)

Offensive scheme: Pro

Defensive scheme: 4-2-5, some 4-3

2021 record: 10-4

2022 record: 3-1

Before we dive into the breakdown, the details are simple.

Iowa’s offense is amazingly bad while its defense is extraordinarily good.

QB Spencer Petras refuses to lose his job despite being one of the worst pure passers in the conference.

Against Iowa State, the Hawkeye offense didn’t score. When they finally got near the goal line, they fumbled at the 1-yard line.

Iowa’s offense is what you think it is — old-school, pro-style, double tight end sets. Run to set up the pass and vary the run fit by running inside & outside the tackles.

The run game is the only remotely creative feature of Iowa’s 98th-best scoring offense.

Usually priding itself on offensive line play, that’s one of the offense’s weaknesses, struggling to protect Petras.

Averaging just over 20 points per game, the Hawkeye offense failed to score a touchdown at home against Iowa State and didn’t score until the 3rd quarter at Rutgers last weekend.

How will it match up with Michigan’s defense?

I've said all week that this matchup is the X-Factor.

Since last year’s Big Ten title game, Iowa’s offense has only become worse by losing players, still rolling out Petras, and the play designs.

Michigan’s defense still has the speed and lockdown coverage to counter anything Iowa tries to do. Most important, U-M has Mazi Smith in the middle and the duo of Mike Morris & Taylor Harrell to defend anything Iowa tries to do in the run game — inside or outside.

I see this matchup going marginally better than last year’s matchup for the Hawkeyes, at best. It may be worse.

Establishing the run is a contingency for Iowa’s offense to work, and I don’t like that matchup for Ferentz’s crew.

Michigan’s defense has too much going well to say its lack of pass rush numbers will hinder its success — Aidan Hutchinson & David Ojabo combined for one sack in a 42-3 win for U-M last year.

U-M hasn’t had cornerback play like it’s getting from DJ Turner & Gemon Green since Jourdan Lewis, Channing Stribling, and David Long.

The speed of Michigan’s second-level will be the difference.

When your defense has more touchdowns than your offense, that’s not a sustainable statistic to win ball games.

Iowa’s offense hasn’t been creative all season. If Saturday’s the day it decides to be, it’s difficult to see it going well enough to beat Michigan.

Phil Parker’s 4-2-5 is an Iowa staple and for good reason.

It hasn’t missed a beat, allowing 6.7 points per game through four weeks, the second-best scoring defense in the country.

Iowa feasts on turnovers and in the world of NIL, any money the Hawkeye offense makes should immediately be wired to Parker’s personnel because it’s carried this team to a 2-1 record.

Against Iowa State, between the defense and special teams, the Hawkeyes blocked two punts, forced two turnovers inside its own 10-yard line, and still lost the game because the offense couldn’t capitalize on any Cyclone mistakes.

The defense gave up some chunk plays to Rutgers and in the first half against Iowa State. It allowed 5 20+ yard plays in the first half against ISU, but forcing two turnovers in the red zone made the unit look unstoppable on paper.

It’s a good and talented defense but if it doesn’t force turnovers, it’s bending, not breaking, playing aggressive, and depending on a big defensive play to finish drives.

Michigan’s second-best scoring defense goes up against Iowa’s second-best scoring defense.

Every football fan’s dream!

Rutgers put some underneath screens and spacing plays on tape that worked against Iowa. Due to the 4-2-5 Parker runs, I’d imagine we’ll see a game plan similar(ish) to Michigan’s against UConn, who runs a similar scheme.

Sophomore QB J.J. McCarthy has a low turnover worthy play percentage of 4.3 but that number sky-rocketed after he had three of those plays against Maryland — two fumbles recovered by U-M and an interception in the end zone caught out of bounds.

His completion percentage still sits over 80% and he’s shown the consistent ability to make throws underneath without error.

The quick screen plays should be drive-starters.

Where Iowa’s defense excels is reading misdirections and being disciplined with the ball. Michigan likes to run a lot of motions at the LOS, mixing in jet sweeps, touches, and reverses to a few of its many skill players.

How Iowa defends Matt Weiss’ pre-snap movements could dictate a lot because, of course, it’s impossible to ignore Blake Corum and Michigan’s run game, coming off a day where the junior had 244 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading U-M to a tough win over Maryland.

Iowa gives up 86 rushing yards per game but where it struggled last season against U-M was any run off tackle. Michigan’s wideouts block as good or better than any group in the country.

With the potential of Donovan Edwards coming back, if Michigan’s run game is established, it should roll, theoretically.

McCarthy, despite his free play style, has zero interceptions this season. If he can walk out of Iowa City still with zero, Michigan’s loss column will remain blank, too.