Keys to the game: Michigan vs. Ohio State
I’m not sure how many times linebacker Josh Ross said that he was tired of talking about the game and wanted to go play it when he met with the media, but it was clear that this team is ready to see if they have the answers for what awaits them on the field. What are the questions, though? With one more day separating Michigan from meeting Ohio State on the Michigan Stadium turf, let’s spend some time digging into the matchups that might swing the game.
Ohio State’s run defense vs. Michigan’s run offense
The Buckeye’s basic stats are daunting: 3.1 yards per rush allowed on 363 attempts, an average of 102.3 rushing yards per game allowed and nine touchdowns ceded this season. Pro Football Focus is seeing something different, though, as they have Ohio State’s run defense scored 63.6, 62.5, and 56.0 over their last three games, respectively. Three of their four worst rushing scores of the season have come in games against Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State; the other game in which the run defense scored poorly was Oregon, but they’ve made structural changes since that which negate that score to a large degree.
For Michigan, they have to sustain blocks long enough to let Hassan Haskins, Donovan Edwards, and (presumably) Blake Corum get to the line of scrimmage. That’s what Michigan’s offensive line has done all season, so considering the way Ohio State’s trending and Michigan’s okay (but not great) PFF run blocking scores, this is a matchup that could determine whether Michigan can grind out drives and thus clock.
Ohio State’s edge rushers vs. Michigan’s tackles
Michigan needs offensive balance, and it can’t get that if it's constantly behind the sticks and having to throw deep to bail out of bad situations. As noted above, Michigan might be able to run the ball a bit on Ohio State’s front. It doesn’t seem likely that it will be getting explosive plays from the run game--Jim Harbaugh noted this week how quickly OSU’s front closes holes that look like they should be open--but a few yards to keep Michigan on track works so long as Michigan can put the ball in Cade McNamara’s hands with the luxury of a relatively short depth of target.
On Ohio State’s side of the line are edge rushers Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith. Harrison has the higher PFF pressure score (87.3) but fewer overall pressures than Smith. Harrison has 26 overall pressures on 460 snaps; he has four sacks, four QB hits, and 18 QB hurries. Smith has 31 total pressures on 350 snaps which can be broken out as three sacks, 10 QB hits, and 18 QB hurries. The wildcard in this matchup is defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, who has a 85.1 pressure score and 20 total pressures (six sacks, two QB hits, 12 QB hurries) on just 164 snaps.
On Michigan’s side of the line are tackles Andrew Stueber and Ryan Hayes. Stueber has graded particularly well this season, allowing just nine total pressures all year including no sacks with a 78.1 pass blocking grade. Hayes has a 66.6 pass blocking score this season and has allowed a team-high 22 pressures. If Michigan is going to have a chance the tackles will have to be excellent, and the guards will need to raise their games as well; between Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, and Chuck Filiaga, none have above a 55.1 pass blocking score.
Michigan’s secondary vs. Ohio State’s passing game
It’s not hyperbole to say that this wide receiver group and quarterback are the best Michigan has had to defend not only this season but in recent memory. Quarterback CJ Stroud has put up video-game-on-easy-like numbers, passing for nearly 3500 yards, 36 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 346 attempts with a completion percentage of 71.1. If you watched the Michigan State game you saw how quickly he gets the ball out, and his deep ball is particularly lethal. Of his three most frequent throws--short center [24.8% of attempts], intermediate center [14.1%], and deep center [6.1%]--his passing grades are 68.6, 94.9, and 90.6. Yes, he grades out better throwing the ball 10-15 yards downfield than he does 0-10 yards downfield. On those intermediate throws he averages 12.6 yards per attempt and has thrown for seven touchdowns, his second-best category outside of--you guessed it--deep center throws, on which he has six touchdowns and averages 18.6 yards per attempt.
PFF uses a color-coding system in which excellent scores are either a blue-green mix or, in the best cases, blue. Ohio State’s three receivers with the most targets all have an overall grade that is either blue-green or blue. Chris Olave has the most targets (89), but Garrett Wilson (86) and Jaxon Smith-Njiba (84) are not far off. Smith-Njiba is as lethal a slot threat as exists in the nation, and his stat line is the most impressive of the three. He is catching 82.1% of targets for an average yards per reception of 16.4 despite an average depth of target of 8.8 yards. He has only dropped 6.8% of passes targeting him this season and has gone 4-of-4 on contested catches.
Olave, whom you probably need no introduction to if you recall the 2018 game, is Stroud’s deep-ball target, with his average depth of target 14.9 yards downfield. Olave has 58 catches on 89 targets (65.2%) and 13 touchdowns. He has dropped 4.9% of targets this season and completed eight of 13 contested catches.
Wilson has numbers that are fairly similar to Olave. He has 60 catches on 86 targets (69.8%) for 939 yards and 11 touchdowns. His average depth of target is 12 yards downfield and he has converted four of seven contested catches. The only thing that stands out--and this is not a big thing, but it is technically different than his receiver counterparts--is Wilson’s six drops, which equates to 9.1% of targets being dropped. On the whole, defending three receivers of this caliber and a quarterback that can make every throw is enough to make a defensive coordinator’s head spin.
Michigan’s chances might also improve a bit if they’re able to get pressure on Stroud. He has been under pressure on 22.2% of dropbacks this season and has completed 53.6% of those 69 passes for an average yards per attempt of 9.3. Zooming out a bit to include every snap on which he was blitzed (30.1% of dropbacks), he is 71-of-103 with a completion percentage of 68.9 and yards per attempt 10.2. He doesn’t flinch when defenses bring pressure, and his numbers are still fairly good when pressure gets through, though of course they do drop off some. Whatever Michigan schemes up has to get through to have any chance of impacting Stroud.
Prediction
I think on most drives Michigan attempts to grind out a few yards at a time mixing run and pass in an effort to create double-digit-play drives that keep Ohio State’s prolific offense off the field. I think they will be moderately successful at this, but any slip-up--a poor punt, a three-and-out, a turnover on downs--puts the plan in jeopardy and increases the stress on the defense.
On defense, I think Michigan is in for the fight of its life. The corners and safeties have to keep OSU’s receivers in front of them, and even then you’re looking at the possibility that they could hit 15-yard passes on the regular. Worst-case scenario, Ohio State’s offensive line manages to move Michigan’s front seven and dropping into zones gives room to freshman phenom running back TreVeyon Henderson, who is averaging 4.58 yards after contact per rushing attempt on 149 carries. It’s difficult to look at what Ohio State’s offense did to Michigan State and envision getting the stops necessary to win.
Ohio State 38, Michigan 24
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