Michigan Football Keys To The Game: Michigan State
What was billed this summer as a potential showdown for a leg up in the Big Ten East Division championship race has become a David vs. Goliath matchup for Michigan State against Michigan.
There aren’t many slingshot rocks in David’s pocket for this one, either — mainly just pebbles, a gum wrapper and maybe some lint — which is why the Wolverines enter as a 23- to 24-point favorite to handle the 2-5 Spartans in East Lansing.
Michigan hasn’t beaten MSU by double digits on the Spartans’ turf since 1997, a 23-7 victory that would have been worse had U-M not gone into an offensive shell. Michigan State’s only touchdown came on a fake field goal pass to a wide-open receiver in that one, and many believe the Spartans could have to resort to such trickery Saturday to score against the nation’s No. 1 defense.
On paper, this one isn’t close. Michigan State has lost five straight, only one of them to a ranked team (Wisconsin, a 30-6 setback), and is coming off a 28-17 loss at Maryland. But this is U-M’s first road test in a hostile environment — Rutgers doesn’t fit that bill — so we’ll see how the Wolverines respond.
This week’s keys to the game:
Handle Michigan State’s array of blitzes: This is an area in which Michigan State has owned the Wolverines in recent years, especially in East Lansing. MSU had seven sacks in a 28-14 win in 2011, seven more in a 29-6 victory in 2013 and two with four quarterback hurries in a 35-11 victory in 2014.
The Spartans’ A-gap blitzes (on either side of center) have been problematic for the Wolverines over the years, but this veteran offensive line seems to be better equipped to deal with it. Michigan is tied for 29th nationally, allowing 1.57 sacks per game, and four of the five starters — all but freshman left guard Ben Bredeson — have started two-plus years.
Michigan State is tied for 119th out of 128 teams in sacks this season with one per game. Standout defensive end Malik McDowell has only managed 1.5, and those came in the last two games.
If MSU somehow gets consistent pressure on redshirt sophomore quarterback Wilton Speight, this game could be tighter than expected. A sack and an early fumble return for touchdown by Colorado set the tone and made things uncomfortable for the Wolverines in an eventual 45-28 win earlier this year.
Eliminate Michigan State’s run game: The Spartans showed signs of life in this area Saturday at Maryland in rushing for 270 yards. MSU also ran for 260 yards in a 36-28 road win at Notre Dame, and while the Fighting Irish aren’t good, that’s still an accomplishment.
Michigan State’s top two backs, LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes, are averaging 5.0 and 4.9 yards per carry, respectively. Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke has proven to be elusive, as well, in averaging 6.9 yards per rush, many of them on scrambles. U-M will blitz, so maintaining rush lanes will be important. Central Florida had success against the Wolverines earlier this year when their quarterback escaped the pocket.
If the Spartans are one-dimensional, their game plan will likely be similar to last year’s in Ann Arbor when quarterback Connor Cook threw a number of passes up for grabs in man coverage. MSU receiver Aaron Burbridge was the target then (nine catches, 132 yards), and he’s gone — there’s nobody on Michigan State’s team that’s a similar threat.
Maintain composure: There are often extra-curriculars in this emotional game — a few years ago, MSU’s William Gholston was throwing haymakers and twisting then-quarterback Denard Robinson’s helmet at the bottom of the pile. Last week at Maryland when the game started to go south, MSU linebacker Riley Bullough picked up three personal foul penalties and a targeting call to get ejected.
That’s a game Michigan can’t play Saturday. The Wolverines need to take a business trip mentality, and play hard and with emotion but under control. Like turnovers, penalties can be an equalizer. Get off to a fast start and the Spartans’ will could easily crumble … give them unnecessary yardage and it allows them to hang around.
The Breakdown: This is not a very good Michigan State team. At the same time, not-so-good MSU teams have given the Wolverines fits in East Lansing over the years, even prior to head coach Mark Dantonio’s arrival. There is some talent on this MSU team, and if they get any momentum — and the crowd behind them — the Spartans could make this a game.
Then again, this is a veteran Michigan team, and most have been pointing to this game since the fluke 27-23 loss last year during which punter Blake O’Neill’s dropped snap was returned for a touchdown on the last play. MSU usually has the chip on its shoulder heading into this one, but the intangibles are with the Wolverines this time around.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh will have his team prepared.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 34, Michigan State 13
The Spartans still have some players, but this is a bad match-up for them. There’s arguably not one area in which they’ll have an advantage Saturday, and the biggest mismatch — MSU's offensive line vs. U-M’s defensive line — isn’t where you want to be deficient.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 41, Michigan State 9
It ends here.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 42, Michigan State 10
Based on how things have played out this season, Michigan State could be in for another pounding at the hands of the Wolverines. Michigan is just a far better team right now, and it will look that way Saturday.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 35, Michigan State 14
This will not be a walk in the park for Michigan.
TheWolverine.com Intern Leland Mitchinson: Michigan 45, Michigan State 10
Michigan gets revenge for last year and beats MSU handily.