Michigan Football Keys To The Game: Wisconsin
It’s a top-10 battle this weekend in Ann Arbor with a couple of heavyweights going toe to toe, and we’re about to find out just how good these teams — No. 4 Michigan and No. 8 Wisconsin — really are.
Michigan State flinched last weekend in its showdown with the Badgers, getting pummeled at home in a 30-6 beating that wasn’t as methodical as it appeared. Wisconsin scored 14 points on a fumble return for a touchdown and a five-yard drive set up by a blocked punt — otherwise this was a hard-hitting contest decided by a few plays, as well as the play of the two quarterbacks.
The Badgers averaged only 3.0 yards per rush at MSU, but redshirt freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook shined with a number of third down throws (including a couple of big plays in the passing game) to keep drives alive. Wisconsin finished 7 for 16 on third down and 2 for 2 on fourth down, including one inside the Michigan State five-yard line, to keep drives alive.
Wisconsin has now beaten a pair of top-10 teams, having handled LSU earlier this season, and would have to receive consideration as a top-three team with a win in Ann Arbor. Here are the keys to a Michigan win Saturday:
Continue Third-Down Dominance: The Wolverines lead the country in opponent third-down conversions through four games, allowing success on only 12 percent of the attempts. Wisconsin’s offense comes into the game ranked 44th nationally at 45.16 percent.
Advantage: Michigan.
Hornibrook was impressive in his starting debut, completing 16 of 26 passes for 195 yards with one touchdown, but he also had one picked off and had another interception dropped. And while he picked up a few third-and-longs against the Spartans, he probably won’t be as comfortable in the pocket against a Michigan team that is tied for first in the country with 17 sacks.
On the flip side, the Badgers are 11th nationally in opponent third-down percentage (23.91), while Michigan is seventh in success offensively (54.39).
Whoever wins these battles Saturday will likely win the game.
This will be the biggest test of the year for U-M’s offensive line, especially against pass rushers Vince Biegel and T.J. Watt, and they’ll need to be at their best. Biegel recorded 10 quarterback hurries and Watt notched 2.5 sacks in the win at MSU.
Pressure Wisconsin Quarterback Alex Hornibrook: Getting to the quarterback this week probably won’t be as easy as it’s been in the first four games. Wisconsin’s line is a bit banged up, but left tackle Ryan Ramczyk is ProFootballFocus.com’s third-highest graded offensive tackle in the FBS through four weeks.
“He is at the top of the tackle heap in terms of run blocking and did not yield his first pressure of the season this past weekend against Michigan State,” they wrote. “This puts him third in the country in pass blocking efficiency — a remarkable feat considering Wisconsin has already played the likes of LSU (and Arden Key, our fourth-highest graded EDGE player) and Michigan State.”
But Michigan fifth-year senior Chris Wormley and true freshman Rashan Gary are also among the site’s top 20 edge defenders, and senior Taco Charlton returned last week with five pressures and a sack. Wormley has recorded 14 pressures in the early going, while Gary has notched at least three pressures each of the last three games (11 total for the season), and ranks “toward the top” of PFF’s run defenders at his position, as well.
If the Badgers can control the edge with one guy, they’ll have a better chance of slowing the Wolverines’ other blitzers. Michigan’s corners will play a role, too. At least two of last week’s sacks were coverage sacks.
Slow Wisconsin’s Run Game: The Spartans did, limiting talented running back Corey Clement to 2.3 yards per rush on 23 carries. LSU also at least held him in check, allowing him 86 yards on 21 carries (4.1 per rush). Dare Ogunbowale, his backup, has been productive, as well, so it’s not just a one-man show. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry in a 16-14 win over LSU and 6.1 against the Spartans, both on nine carries.
Michigan’s front seven has yet to face a downhill run game like Wisconsin’s, a run-it-at-you focus behind a big, physical line. While the Wolverines are strong up front and seem capable, this is a game in which they could use beefy redshirt sophomore Bryan Mone in the middle next to fifth-year senior Ryan Glasgow. However, he’s unlikely to go Saturday.
Limiting the Badgers’ running game would effectively limit the play action Wisconsin loves and force the inexperienced Hornibrook to make throws — and decisions — against an aggressive defense. That’s where it starts.
The Breakdown: This matchup is reminiscent of the good old days, when even very good Wisconsin teams had a hard time against Michigan’s better athletes. U-M handled eventual Heisman winning running back Ron Dayne and the Badgers three years in a row, holding them to 16, 10 and 16 points in games from 1997-99 … this one has a similar vibe.
Make no mistake, though — the Badgers are extremely physical, confident, well coached and capable of winning Saturday if the Wolverines don’t play well. Asking them to win two in a row on the road in the state of Michigan, though, is a tall order.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 14
Michigan won’t pick up huge chunks of yardage between the tackles, relying again on the edges and play action to score points, but there are good match-ups in the passing game if redshirt sophomore quarterback Wilton Speight has time to throw.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 17
Wisconsin arrives in Ann Arbor undefeated, but doesn’t leave that way.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 23
Michigan, playing at home, with everything on the line, will be better prepared than the Badgers and will win easier than most people think.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 31, Wisconsin 17
Michigan’s offensive line has heard enough of the questions and criticism.
TheWolverine.com Intern Leland Mitchinson: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Michigan and Wisconsin is a strength vs. strength match-up, with both teams preferring to run the ball and play good defense. Both quarterbacks will struggle to get anything going through the air. U-M's defense will force the Badgers' redshirt freshman quarterback to make mistakes, and the Wisconsin linebackers will put pressure on Wilton Speight.
Special teams will yet again be the difference in the game for the Wolverines, and the team will have better starting field position throughout the day. Despite the tough sledding, Michigan will pull out the win in its most challenging game until November.