Michigan Football top 5 in ESPN SP+ 2024 preseason rankings

In recent seasons, one of the better analytical predictors in college football has been the SP+ model run by Bill Connelly at ESPN.

The model utilizes metrics from returning to production, recent recruiting, and historic indicators to rank teams and predict outcomes. With the dust largely settled from the coaching changes and first transfer window, Connelly has released his first preseason SP+ rankings, and those predicting doom for Michigan Football may be surprised by Connelly's analysis.

College football's preseason SP+ rankings and takeaways

Georgia ranks #1 as the only team to rank top 5 in offense, defense, and special teams. They are followed by Ohio State who edges out Michigan by .1 for the #1 ranked defense. Oregon is #3 thanks to their #1 ranked offense. Texas is 4th thanks to a top 5 offense and expected improved defense. The Wolverines round out the top 5 with that 2nd ranked defense.

Michigan plays Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State this season.

Other Big Ten teams were ranked as following (Michigan opponents in BOLD:
#7 Penn State
#23 USC
#25 Wisconsin
#26 Iowa
#29 Washington
#37 UCLA
#39 Nebraska
#41 Minnesota
#43 Rutgers
#45 Maryland
#55 Northwestern
#62 Illinois
#79 Michigan State
#86 Purdue
#90 Indiana

When Connolly compares his rankings to Mark Schlabach's updated Way-Too-Early 2024 Top 25 he says Michigan is an obvious "buy", coming in 13th in Schlabach's rankings and 5th in his SP+ model.

Connolly says;
"Be on the lookout for this scrappy, overlooked underdog! Kidding. The defending national champs are going to look awfully new in 2024 - new head coach (Sherrone Moore), new quarterback, new offensive line, new linebacking corps - and that could indeed cause a decent amount of slippage. But the recent history component of SP+ obviously smiles on the Wolverines, and recruiting numbers are solid too. Their ceiling is still going to be pretty high."

Michigan will indeed have a new head coach in Sherrone Moore next season and many new faces on offense, but with the brain trust of the offensive coaching staff back on offense and talented depth, the Wolverines should be expected to be good enough on offense. On the defensive side, they are still among the elite defenses in the country. A new defensive staff led by Wink Martindale will coach up a talented group that includes Rod Moore, Will Johnson, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and more.

Michigan faces a difficult schedule next season, but with the expanded playoff, Michigan could go 9-3 or 10-2 and make the 12-team playoff. Michigan currently projects to be near two-touchdown favorites in every game except for their matchups with Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State. Connelly's belief in Michigan's ceiling makes sense with those projections. If the Wolverines can steal one from their big 3 games, they project to be 10-2 and easily a top-10 team. If they can win two or all of those games, they are Big Ten and National Championship contenders once again.

That said, numbers are fun for predicting, but there is a reson games are played. Michigan has big questions to answer on offense, including who is starting at quarterback, but if you are looking to buy or sell Michigan ahead of the 2024 season, at least ESPN's SP+ model says you should be buying the Wolverines as a contender for a 4th straight season.

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