Published Nov 1, 2018
Michigan Football: Previewing Penn State With A Nittany Lion Insider
Austin Fox  •  Maize&BlueReview
Staff Writer
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Fresh off a bye week, Michigan will continue its hunt for a Big Ten title this Saturday against a 6-2 Penn State squad.

BlueWhiteIllustrated's Nate Bauer was kind enough to help us break down the Nittany Lions and explained what U-M fans should be on the lookout for this weekend.

Projected Starters on Offense

• QB Trace McSorley (redshirt senior) — After leading the Big Ten with a 66.5 completion percentage last year, McSorley has posted a 52.8 mark this season, that ranks a disappointing 11th in the league (although he still boasts an impressive 12-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio). McSorley has become a much bigger threat on the ground with 77.1 rushing yards per game, while leading the entire conference in rushing touchdowns with nine.

• RB Miles Sanders (junior) — He has performed brilliantly taking over for the departed Saquon Barkley, with 834 yards (second most in the Big Ten) and eight rushing scores (tied for second). Sanders has averaged at least 4.8 yards per carry in six of the team's eight contests and has compiled at least 118 yards on three different occasions.

• WR K.J. Hamler (redshirt freshman) — Perhaps a bit surprisingly, he has emerged as the team's best receiver, leading the squad in catches (27), receiving yards (497) and touchdown receptions (five). The 5-9, 173-pound speedster's best game came when he tptaled 138 yards and a score on just four receptions against Ohio State Sept. 29 — but he has been a big-play threat all season, evidenced by his 18.4 yards per grab (third best in the league).

• WR Juwan Johnson (redshirt junior) — After bringing in 701 yards through the air last year, Johnson has been a bit of a disappointment so far in 2018, with just 21 catches for 293 yards. He is a mismatch nightmare at 6-4, 231 pounds, but he has been limited with injuries, playing just 39 snaps over the team's last two clashes.

• WR Brandon Polk (redshirt junior) — He has started seven of Penn State's eight tilts, but has made a minimal impact with nine catches for 162 yards. Like Hamler, Polk is also a speedster at 5-9, 179 pounds, but after reeling in 119 yards through the Nittany Lions' first three contests, he has compiled just 43 in the five since.

• TE Pat Freiermuth (freshman) — He claimed the starting job from redshirt junior Jonathan Holland in late September and has made an immediate impact in State College as a true freshman. Freiermuth's 13 receptions rank third on the team and his 171 yards are fourth, and he has collected a touchdown in four of his last five games.

• LT Ryan Bates (redshirt junior) — Bates has graded out as Pro Football Focus' (PFF) best Nittany Lion offensive lineman this year, with a 76.9 overall rating (64 is considered average). While he is above average in both run blocking and pass blocking, he excels in the latter, with an 84.6 mark on the year.

• LG Steven Gonzalez (redshirt junior) — He has become a staple on Penn State's offensive line, starting the last 21 contests at left guard. PFF has tagged him with a stellar 79.3 grade as a pass blocker, but just a 60.3 tally as a run blocker.

• C Michael Menet (redshirt sophomore) — He appeared in 12 clashes last year as a backup, but has entrenched himself as the full-time starting center this season. His overall grade of 69.3 from PFF is the second best of any PSU offensive lineman, behind only Bates' 76.9.

• RG Connor McGovern (junior) — The junior started all 13 showdowns at center in 2017 but has made the transition to right guard this year to allow Menet to become the primary center. McGovern's play is a big reason the Nittany Lions are averaging 225.3 rushing yards per outing, which is 25th in the country.

• RT Will Fries (redshirt sophomore) — PFF has slapped him with the lowest mark of any of PSU's starting offensive linemen, but he has still earned an above-average tally at 64.9. Although Fries has started the last two tilts, he has only averaged 20.5 snaps per contest, while fifth-year senior Chasz Wright has received much of the playing time there.

Projected Starters on Defense

• DE Shareef Miller (redshirt junior) — His 8.5 tackles for loss are the second most on the squad, and his four sacks rank third. Miller is a huge reason the Nittany Lion defense has racked up 65 tackles for loss on the year, which are the seventh most in college football.

• DT Robert Windsor (redshirt junior) — He has compiled six tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks, which rank fourth and fifth, respectively, on the team. Windsor has also been incredibly durable, averaging 65.7 snaps over the Nittany Lions' last four tilts.

• DT Kevin Givens (redshirt junior) — Givens' statistics don't jump off the page (five tackles for loss, one sack), but he has served as an anchor in the middle of Penn State's defensive line. In fact, his 72.5 overall grade from PFF is the second highest of any of the team's defensive linemen, trailing only redshirt sophomore defensive end Shaka Toney's 74.8.

• DE Yetur Gross-Matos (sophomore) — In his first year as a starter, Gross-Matos has turned into a monster off the edge, leading the Big Ten in tackles for loss with 12.5 and tying for third with six sacks. He put on the best performance of his career last week against Iowa, racking up four TFLs and two sacks.

• LB Cam Brown (junior) — His 42 tackles are tied for the second most on PSU's defense, trailing only freshman linebacker Micah Parsons' 43. Brown has also accumulated five tackles for loss from his linebacker spot, but has registered just one in his last five appearances.

• LB Koa Farmer (redshirt senior) — The stalwart with 20 starts since the beginning of 2017 has seemingly regressed this season, tallying a 58.2 mark from PFF after recording a 66.5 in 2017. On top of that, Farmer has just 1.5 tackles for loss after accumulating 5.5 last year.

• LB Jan Johnson (redshirt junior) — The first-year starter has been a pleasant surprise on the Nittany Lion defense, checking in with a 75.5 grade from PFF (fifth best on the defense). Johnson has only logged 0.5 tackles for loss, but his 41 stops are the fifth most on the unit.

• CB Amani Oruwariye (redshirt senior) — With a grade of 80.1, he has earned the highest praise from PFF of any player on Penn State's defense, and he was named a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe award (nation's best defensive back) on Oct. 22. Oruwariye has picked off two passes, and his 11 pass breakups are the third most in the Big Ten.

• CB John Reid (redshirt junior) — Reid missed all of last season with injury but has bounced back nicely to start all six games he's appeared in (he missed two with an ailment). He has helped limit opposing quarterbacks to just a 53.8 completion percentage this year, which is tied for 19th best in the nation.

• S Nick Scott (redshirt senior) — He saved Penn State's season last week when he picked off Iowa junior quarterback Nate Stanley at the goal line with just 3:20 remaining in the game. Scott has racked up 42 tackles from his safety spot, which are tied for the second most on the defense.

• S Garrett Taylor (redshirt junior) — PFF has awarded the veteran with a 77.9 grade, which is the second best of PSU's defensive starters (trailing Oruwariye's 80.1). The redshirt junior has registered two picks, six pass breakups and 42 stops in 2018.

Projected Starters on Special Teams

• K Jake Pinegar (freshman) — The rookie has seen his share of ups and downs, connecting on nine of his 13 field goal attempts. Pinegar is 6 of 7 from inside 40 yards, though, and has also converted six of his last seven tries.

• P Blake Gillikin (junior) — He has followed up last season's stellar showing (43.2-yard average) with another respectable campaign, posting a 42.3-yard average on 40 punts. Consistency has perhaps been Gillikin's biggest attribute this year — he has recorded at least a 41.8-yard clip in six of eight games this season.

Nate Bauer on Penn State's Biggest Strength on Offense

"I thought I knew the answer to this — that a McSorley-led group had the versatility to keep opponents off balance simply by taking what’s given — but I’m not quite as sure as I’d been a month ago," Bauer admitted.

"For the first few weeks of the season, an improved offensive line helped keep McSorley on his feet and paved the way for Sanders and [freshman running back] Ricky Slade to get the run game going.

"McSorley was as dynamic as he’d been in his previous two years as a starter, and Penn State produced the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense through four games at 55 points per outing. There were cracks showing, though, and PSU's most recent four games have in some ways widened the gaps.

"No doubt, this is still an offense that has playmakers — McSorley being the primary engine — and Hamler and Sanders are also capable of turning touches into touchdowns."

It's obvious the fifth-year senior quarterback misses Barkley (1,271 rushing yards last year) and departed wideout DaeSean Hamilton (857 yards, nine touchdowns), because he has had to shoulder much more of the load as a result.

Make no mistake, though, McSorley is still making plays at a high level.

He has thrown at least one touchdown in seven of eight games, and has rushed for at least 92 yards in three of the eight (including a 175-yard showing in the loss to Ohio State).

The veteran is still the main reason Penn State has posted at least 30 points six times this season, including four of 45 or more.

Bauer on the Biggest Weakness on Offense

"An epidemic of drops from the Nittany Lion wideouts has truly stunted Penn State’s production and the way the offense is meant to work, certainly as a big-play machine but also in simply managing to extend possessions beyond three-and-outs," the analyst explained.

"At this point in the season, what might have seemed to be a one-off or isolated incident has turned into enough of a trend that McSorley’s game has fundamentally adjusted to it. He's now eighth among the Big Ten’s top rushers for the season, but also only eighth in passing yards per game.

"Seemingly unable to cobble together the type of complete game offensive explosion that became standard practice in each of the past two seasons, the elements have all flashed to create the sense that at some point, it just might happen.

"But until it does, it’s hard to describe Penn State’s offense as the strength of the team that it’d recently been."

Bauer touched on how drops have plagued the Nittany Lion receivers, and it's been obvious how much it has hindered the production from several individuals in the group.

Johnson's regression and fifth-year senior DeAndre Thompkins has followed a similar path — he reeled in 28 receptions for 443 yards and three scores last year, but has only compiled 12 grabs for 183 yards and a lone touchdown in 2018.

Underwhelming play from the receivers has been a contributing factor to Penn State's passing attack dropping from 290.2 yards per contest in 2017 to 234.1 this year.

Bauer on the Biggest Strength on Defense

"Penn State’s defense has been a week-by-week evolution this season, so what might have been the strength at the beginning of the season probably isn’t the same as what I’d describe as the strength now," Bauer noted.

"Earlier, I might have said that Penn State’s secondary was the strength, having come up with some crucial takeaways and generally holding down opposing quarterbacks. Not to say that the secondary isn’t still a strength, but the progression of Penn State’s line has really started to produce the positive impact throughout the defense that the Lions’ coaching staff anticipated from the start.

"At defensive tackle, Givens and Windsor have been more disruptive and are getting into the backfield more. The ends — Miller, Gross-Matos and Toney especially — have been on a tear, helped largely by what the tackles are doing in the interior of the line.

"As a team, PSU now leads the Big Ten in sacks at 28 for the season and 3.5 per game. And in a lot of ways, that has trickled downhill to Penn State’s linebackers.

"Even so, the arithmetic is fairly straightforward with this defense. Holding back the run or producing negative plays on first and second down creates a highly effective third-down situation in which Penn State likes to be aggressive. Make those plays, and Penn State is going to find itself with some takeaway opportunities and will largely prevent offensive explosions."

The Nittany Lions' defensive front has done a good job at getting in opposing backfields all season long. Six different players have logged at least five tackles for loss, while four have garnered 3.5 sacks or more.

An aggressive front seven would have spelled doom last year for a Wolverine offensive line that yielded 36 sacks (114th nationally), but U-M has done a much better job of taking care of its signal-callers this time around.

Michigan has surrendered just 13 sacks all year (37th in the country), while also decreasing its tackles for loss allowed from 83 in 2017 (6.4 per game) to 43 so far this season (5.4 per game).

Bauer on the Biggest Weakness on Defense

"At some points this season, I don’t think anyone would argue the linebackers were the defense’s biggest weakness due to the inexperience of its youth and athleticism of its veterans," the PSU insider observed.

"Now, arguably, the side of the ball that began the season as the biggest question mark has become much more dependable than the offense..

"On the flip side, largely in conjunction with some of the offense’s struggles to stay on the field, particularly in late-game situations, an overworked, over-repped Penn State defense can be exploited if the timing is right."

Although PSU's defense obviously does several things at a high level, its overall statistics are not good. It is yielding 386.8 yards per contest — 64th in college football — and has given up 389 yards or more on five separate occasions.

The rush defense checks in at 69th (161.3 yards allowed per game), while the pass defense ranks 66th (225.4 yards surrendered a contest).

The unit as a whole is allowing 22.3 points per game (34th), but has given up at least 24 five times, including a season-worst 38 to Appalachian State in the opener.

Bauer's Final Score Prediction

"I know teams change, but just given some of the expectations going into that game last year and how it ultimately played out, I do think there’s reason to believe Penn State can play with Michigan," Bauer revealed.

"McSorley, with a decent offensive line in front of him, should be able to find at least some limited success moving the ball against a Michigan defense I would venture hasn’t seen an offense with as much explosive play potential as Penn State since at least Notre Dame. And PSU's defense has gotten better all season, putting it in a good enough spot to hold the Wolverines around their season scoring average of 36 points per game.

"In Ann Arbor, though, the likelihood of rectifying already existing trouble spots, putting together a complete game in all three phases — including special teams, which are simultaneously the most explosive and most fundamentally unsound aspect of this team — might be a bit too heavy for these relatively inexperienced Nittany Lions to accomplish.

"As has been the case in recent weeks, a close one could again be on the docket, but the edge has to go to the home team, in this case, riding a wave of momentum.

"Like last year, for both teams, I’m leaning toward more scoring than what might be expected coming into this one — Michigan 38, Penn State 34."

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