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Previewing Michigan State With A Spartan Insider

Paul Konyndyk of SpartanMag.com was kind enough to swing by this week and break down Michigan State’s football team prior to its weekend showdown with the Michigan Wolverines at The Big House.

The analyst provided a preview of which MSU players fans should keep an eye on this Saturday, while also giving a final score prediction and a forecast of how he thinks the game will go.

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Michigan State Spartans running back Elijah Collins
Michigan State Spartans running back Elijah Collins ran for 27 yards on 12 carries last year against the Michigan Wolverines’ football team. (AP Images)
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Michigan State’s Projected Starters On Offense

• Redshirt junior QB Rocky Lombardi — Lost in the shuffle of Michigan State’s ugly 38-27 loss to Rutgers last week was the fact that Lombardi posted pretty solid passing numbers against the Scarlet Knights (excluding his two interceptions), completing 31 of 43 throws (72.1 percent) for 319 yards with three touchdowns. The criticism surrounding his week-one performance, however, stemmed from the fact he had several clear miscommunications with his receivers and that he turned the ball over three times.

• Redshirt junior RB Connor Heyward — He received the start last weekend against Rutgers, which Konyndyk admitted was a “bit of a surprise given that [redshirt sophomore Elijah] Collins finished 12 yards shy of 1,000 yards as a redshirt freshman.” Heyward tallied just 18 yards on seven carries against the Scarlet Knights, with Konyndyk revealing he wouldn’t be surprised to see freshman Jordon Simmons earn the starting nod here, after he “ran hard and showed a burst” last Saturday.

• Redshirt sophomore WR Jalen Nailor — He posted solid numbers in MSU’s loss last week, reeling in six receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Nailor’s 84 yards were a career best, though dampened a bit by the fact he was one of four offensive players to cough up at least one fumble.

• Redshirt sophomore WR Jayden Reed — He sat out last year after transferring in from Western Michigan, and made a bang in his MSU debut by reeling in 11 catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns. Ball security was a major issue for him against Rutgers, though, with the 6-0, 185-pounder losing two fumbles.

• Sophomore WR Tre Mosley — “Mosley left last weekend’s game with a leg injury and is listed as a day-to-day,” Konyndyk revealed, after the sophomore tallied one catch for 11 yards last weekend. If Mosley is unable to play, the analyst said freshman Ricky White will start in his place. White played 30 snaps and caught one pass for five yards in his collegiate debut.

• Senior TE Matt Dotson — He was MSU’s third-leading receiver last Saturday behind Reed and Nailor, compiling five receptions for 50 yards. Dotson shared reps with redshirt sophomore Trenton Gillison at the position, playing 52 snaps while the latter saw 33.

• Fifth-year senior LT A.J. Arcuri — According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he was by far Michigan State’s best offensive player last week against Rutgers. The site awarded him an overall game grade of 76.6 (64 is considered average), which was 7.3 points higher than any other offensive Spartan received.

• Redshirt junior LG Blake Bueter — PFF tabbed him as Michigan State’s second-best pass blocker last weekend, giving him an impressive mark of 74.9 in that department. Despite earning the starting nod in the loss to Rutgers, Bueter split time at the position with sophomore J.D. Duplain, playing 48 snaps while the latter played 38.

• Fifth-year senior C Matt Allen — He entered 2020 as one of the team’s most experienced offensive linemen, having started 16 games over the past two years. Allen’s season debut against the Scarlet Knights did not go well, however, with his 53.9 mark from PFF checking in as the lowest of any of the seven Spartan offensive linemen who saw the field.

• Redshirt junior RG Matt Carrick — His 66.9 grade from PFF for last weekend’s performance was the fourth highest of the 21 MSU offensive players who saw game action against Rutgers. At 320 pounds, Carrick is tied as the second-heaviest offensive lineman on Michigan State’s roster.

• Redshirt junior RT Kevin Jarvis — His 2019 campaign was destroyed by injury, starting the team’s first three games before suffering a leg ailment against Arizona State Sept. 14 and missing the rest of the season. Jarvis is healthy once again and played all 86 snaps against the Scarlet Knights, residing as the heaviest offensive linemen on the Spartans’ roster at 325 pounds.

Michigan State’s Projected Starters On Defense

• Senior DE Jacub Panasiuk — He racked up six stops and half a tackle for loss in MSU’s opener while playing 52 snaps. Panasiuk is perhaps best remembered by U-M fans for a late hit he laid on Wolverine quarterback Shea Patterson in last year’s game, which the officials deemed flagrant and ejected him for as a result.

• Fifth-year senior DT Naquan Jones — PFF tabbed him as the club’s best run defender last week, giving him a 79.5 grade in that department. At 340 pounds, he is the second-heaviest player on MSU’s entire team.

• Redshirt sophomore DT Jacob Slade — He received a 74.4 mark from PFF for his performance last Saturday, which was the fourth highest of any Spartan defensive player. Despite playing 55 snaps in the opener, Slade did not record any statistics.

• Fifth-year senior DE Drew Beesley — PFF pegged him as Michigan State’s best pass rusher against Rutgers, with his 89.4 tally slotting in 23.1 points higher than any other MSU player in the pass-rushing department. Beesley’s one sack tied for the team lead, while his 2.5 tackles for loss checked in as the second most.

• Senior LB Antjuan Simmons — His 11 tackles and three stops behind the line of scrimmage both led Michigan State’s defense in its loss to the Scarlet Knights. Simmons is likely best remembered by Michigan fans during his high school days, signing with the Spartans in 2017 as a four-star prospect out of Ann Arbor’s Pioneer High School.

• Redshirt junior LB Noah Harvey — His nine tackles last week were the second most on MSU’s defense, with the Spartans primarily playing just two linebackers — Simmons being the other — all game long (redshirt sophomore Chase Kline was the only other player at the position to see the field, but he only played three snaps). PFF awarded Harvey with a solid 70.5 overall grade and a 75.2 mark as a run stopper against Rutgers.

• Redshirt sophomore CB Kalon Gervin — He played 63 snaps in last week’s opener, but was given a subpar 62.3 grade from PFF for his performance. Gervin attended Cass Tech High School in Detroit, but believe it or not, is not former teammates with any current Wolverines (Michigan doesn't have anybody on its roster from Cass Tech).

• Redshirt sophomore CB Chris Jackson — Saturday was his first extensive action on defense but it did not go well, per PFF. His 56.0 overall grade was below average, while his 53.2 mark in coverage was the third lowest among the Spartan defenders who played against the pass.

• Redshirt junior NB Shakur Brown — PFF named him Michigan State's best defensive player against the Scarlet Knights, tabbing him with an elite 87.2 overall grade. His 87.4 mark in coverage, meanwhile, was 16.9 points higher than any other Spartan.

• Junior S Xavier Henderson — He is one of the most experienced players on MSU’s defense, having played in all 26 games from 2018-19 and starting all 13 last year. PFF graded Henderson as the Spartans’ best tackler last weekend, giving him an 83.1 mark in that area.

• Senior S Tre Person — He posted an impressive stat line last Saturday, compiling six tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss and one pass defended. Person was the cornerback in coverage against former Wolverine wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones when he hauled in his 79-yard touchdown reception late in the third quarter in Michigan’s 21-7 victory at MSU in 2018.

Michigan State’s Projected Starters On Special Teams

Fifth-year senior K Matt Coghlin — He connected on each of his two field goals (from 45 and 48 yards out) and all three of his extra points in last week’s season opener. Coghlin converted 22 of 32 field goal attempts (68.7 percent) last season.

• Redshirt junior P Bryce Baringer — He averaged 50.5 yards on two punts last weekend, including a booming 55-yarder. Baringer punted 15 times in 2018 as well, but only averaged 32.4 yards per boot that year.

Michigan State’s Biggest Strength On Offense

“Based on what I saw in week one, the potential strength for Michigan State on offense is its starting wideouts Jayden Reed, Jalen Nailor and Tre Mosley,” Konyndyk noted. “Reed is a guy that we’ve heard rave reviews about since he transferred into the program after distinguishing himself as a Freshman All-American at Western Michigan in 2018.

“Reed showed impressive potential in his first game as a Spartan with 11 catches for 128 yards and two touchdown grabs, including a 50-yarder. Reed was also humbled in the opener with a pair of costly fumbles.

“Nailor added six receptions for 84 yards, including a 34-yard touchdown. Nailor also made some mistakes. He screwed up a route against zone coverage that resulted in a Rocky Lombardi interception.

“He also muffed a punt return that led directly to a key Rutgers touchdown in the second half.”

Michigan State’s Biggest Weakness On Offense

“The biggest weakness during week one was ball security,” the analyst explained. “I can’t remember covering a game where Michigan State had seven turnovers. And the crazy thing about those turnovers is that they occurred despite a major emphasis on ball security.

“The fundamental weakness beyond turnovers last weekend for Michigan State’s offense was in the run game. Two fourth-down stoppages in short-yardage situation summed up the struggles that Michigan State had on the ground.

“Rocky Lombardi had a good game at quarterback, but he hasn’t shown himself capable of winning a one-dimensional football game. If Michigan State is unable to run the ball effectively this weekend, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Spartans against the Michigan defense.”

The Spartans’ seven turnovers last week were their most in a game since they also committed seven in a 1981 win over Minnesota. It’s also worth noting that last weekend’s performance came against a Rutgers squad who forced just 10 turnovers all of last year.

Michigan State’s Biggest Strength On Defense

“Michigan State has good leadership on defense with linebacker Antjuan Simmons and safety Xavier Henderson,” Konyndyk said. “These guys are good football players and they both care deeply about their program.

“With Simmons and Henderson leading the way, Michigan State is going to compete fiercely on defense. The Spartans lost a lot off the front seven from last year including a trio of impact players on the D-line. That said, the guys on the D-line that are technically first-year starters are also players that have logged hundreds of game snaps prior to this season.”

Simmons, Henderson, Panasiuk, Brown, Harvey, Slade, Beesley, Jones and Person all played at least 206 snaps on last year's MSU defense, which finished as the No. 19 unit in the nation.

Additionally, eight of the nine aforementioned players are juniors or older (Slade is the lone exception as a redshirt sophomore) and all of them have been present on two defensive units that finished ranked inside the country's top 20 (No. 19 last year and No. 10 in 2018).

Michigan State’s Biggest Weakness On Defense

“Michigan State is running a different defensive scheme this year under coordinator Scottie Hazelton,” the analyst revealed. “The Spartans will be in a 4-2-5 throughout the game.

“Presumably, it will be a bigger challenge for Michigan State to stop a physical rushing offense with its current scheme than it was with the program’s traditional 4-3. Many of the routes that opponents could exploit in the middle of the field against Michigan State’s old 4-3 defense are not available.

“That said, there are still some growing pains with the new defense. Leverages are different in the back end, and there are differences in run fits. If Michigan State is going to keep this game competitive, the defense has to do a better job defending third down than it did last weekend.

“That said, Michigan State’s defense faced a whole lot of adversity last weekend due to a flood of sudden-change scenarios. As far as weaknesses go, Michigan State players are still getting acclimated to their new scheme.

“They just haven’t repped it enough to master the defense they’re playing. Spring football would have helped a lot in that regard.”

Konyndyk’s Final Score Prediction

“My gut tells me that this game is going to be more competitive than Las Vegas thinks,” Konyndyk said. “Truthfully, it really wouldn’t take much for the game to snowball in Michigan’s favor if the Spartans are unable to run the football effectively.

“Michigan State’s defense is better than the 38 points that Rutgers scored as the result of seven turnovers. This group, however, is susceptible to wearing down over the course of the game.

“Playing an entire game in a nickel defense is going to make Michigan State susceptible to being ground down over four quarters. Although I like what I saw from Rocky Lombardi throwing the football in the opener, I don’t have confidence that he is going to be able to carry this Michigan State team in a one-dimensional football game against Michigan the way Brian Lewerke did in 2017.

“Michigan State has good athletes at receiver, but we still don’t know how they’re going to stack up to the physicality they’ll face against Michigan defensive backs. Lombardi will have a lot on his plate.

“He will have to put the ball in the air with the confidence that his receivers will make 50/50 plays. He is also going to have use his legs effectively. I can see Michigan State stringing together a couple quality scoring drives, but this isn’t a team that can win playing one-dimensional football.

“Until I see it, I expect the run offense to struggle against quality defenses. Michigan State could keep this game close for a while, but eventually things will snowball.”

Michigan 34, Michigan State 10

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