Regional Preview: How Oregon will challenge Michigan
Michigan baseball is heading to the NCAA Tournament, and on Friday, it opens up with Oregon in the Louisville regional.
Assuming all of you are like me and woke up Sunday knowing absolutely nothing about Oregon baseball, let's dive in and learn about the Ducks together.
Here is everything you need to know about Oregon before Friday's first pitch.
Where are the Ducks at now?
Oregon had the opposite conference tournament performance compared to Michigan, seemingly locking a spot into the NCAA tournament before the conference tournament began and losing both games to Arizona and Arizona State.
The Ducks are prone to streaky runs, similar to the Wolverines. Before losing both games in the conference tournament, Oregon won seven-of-eight games. Before that streak, it lost 9-of-11 games. And before that? Winners of 8-of-9.
Having lost two in a row, Michigan catches Oregon on the right "streak," according to the trends this season.
The offense
Oregon's offense is excellent at the bat-to-ball, with a team batting average ranking 18th overall at .306. However, its on-base (68th) and slugging percentage (65th) rank marginally lower than Michigan's.
So while the batting average is encouraging, there isn't a ton of run production. Oregon ranks 54th in runs with 423. In that statistic, Michigan is higher than the Ducks, ranking 24th with 467.
Shortstop Josh Kasevich holds down the defense at shortstop and ranks in the top-100 MLB Draft prospects. At the plate, he's hitting .303 with 40 RBIs.
In Oregon's lineup, the most impactful bat is Anthony Hall, a power bat in the 2022 MLB Draft class who feasts on weaker pitching such as Michigan's. Hall has a gaudy .623 slugging percentage, a team-high 14 home runs, and can change the game in one swing.
The Ducks have two batters with at least 50 RBIs, two more with over 40, three with 10+ home runs, and two with slugging percentages over .600.
Oregon's offense isn't as prolific as Michigan's, but it's loud. The bats will be successful against the Wolverines' struggling arm farm, coming from a conference that unequivocally has stronger arms than the Big Ten.
U-M will need to play clean defense and minimize what the Ducks can do with runners in scoring position. Eric Bakich's crew will need to be comfortable allowing runs without allowing those innings to extend. There's a big difference between a two-run inning and a four-run inning. Be comfortable with allowing a couple and keeping the game within striking distance because the "Wolves" can hit.
The arms
Michigan's arms are its weakness, with an ERA ranking 236th, which isn't shocking considering the rotation allows 6.81 runs per nine innings.
Oregon, on the other hand, allows 4.6 runs and ranks 55th. The staff has been OK, but it pitches to contact. They rank 196th in strikeouts per nine innings, so they rely on the defense to make plays, which works well since the Ducks rank 18th in fielding percentage.
Michigan's offense kept them afloat this season. It's one of the most potent lineups in college baseball, with 82 homers (39th) and 58 doubles (11th). Oregon's pitching approach to using arms that rely on movement to produce weak contact rather than racking up strikeouts could prove problematic or genius.
The Wolverine bats have scored 10+ runs in four out of their last six games and 17 overall. Oregon's rotation hasn't given up double-digit runs since March 13 against No. 3 Stanford.
It's the perfect battle between power (Michigan's offense) and old-school, pitch to contact, let the defense work behind you baseball (Oregon's defense).
This duel will go one of two extremes -- either Michigan will score 13 runs (which isn't abnormal), or they'll score three and leave a ton of runners on base.
These are the games we play.
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