Staff Predictions: Michigan vs. Washington

Michigan didn't get this far to fall short and the same argument will be made for Washington but one team has to lose on Monday. I believe this matchup plays to Michigan's strengths well and I am starting to buy into this "team of destiny" talk the more I read about this game from a statistical standpoint.

If the Wolverines can control the clock and limit the Huskies' possessions, I believe the strengths of U-M in the second half will eventually have a stranglehold in the game. It would not shock me one bit if the Wolverines have a big day on the ground and finish the job.

Michigan 31, Washington 20

It has been Natty or bust all year for Michigan and now there is only one game left on the schedule.

This game is a clash of styles and what makes college football great. But some advantages are real and some are misconceptions. Yes, we have the battle of the Washington offense and the Michigan defense. Fans of both sides will tell you that their respective unit’s stats are inflated due to their conferences. While there is some truth to this, opponent-adjusted FEI says Michigan still has the 2nd best defense and says Michigan has a more efficient offense than Washington.

And that’s the biggest factor for me. All year, Michigan’s offense has been misunderstood. The offense and defense have a balanced ecosystem, minimizing possessions, limiting mistakes, winning turnover battles, and maximizing opportunities. Michigan’s offense scores as many points per drive as Washington’s. I don’t think Michigan’s defense will shut down Washington’s offense, but I don’t think Washington will expose Michigan either. So even if you rate that a push, Michigan’s offense has a massive advantage over Washington’s defense.

Defense wins Championships. Run game travels. Whatever cliches you want to use, Michigan is built for this matchup. When it comes to intangibles, Washington can’t match what Michigan has been through this season, the last three years. I am trusting the analytics again, and I am trusting this team. It’s Natty, no bust, Michigan wins the National Championship.

Michigan 35 Washington 23

This is the biggest game many of these players will ever play in. The only game bigger than this would be the Super Bowl, and the odds aren’t great that many of these players ever suit up for that one. Plenty of the Michigan players have already talked about how they would become legends if they win this game, so they know the importance that it has. It’ll be interesting to see how each team comes out and begins this game. I think Michigan will suffer from a little bit of an emotional hangover from its huge, program-defining win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl, which could hurt the Wolverines if they’re not careful. But I also think that Washington will come out stunned by the speed, strength and physicality of the Wolverines’ defense, and the Huskies will struggle to score early. Michigan will eventually overcome its early struggles, and J.J. McCarthy and the offense will score at will in the second half. Realizing they need to play catch-up, Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies will get a little too aggressive on offense, and Michigan will force a couple of turnovers in the second half. Michigan wins its first outright national championship since 1948.

Michigan 37, Washington 24

Don’t think anything is going to stop them now. I’m not a believer in team destiny because if it was true there were a few Michigan basketball, football and hockey seasons that should’ve ended with a championship in my lifetime. I do think you need some luck. The Thaw muff was a lucky break for the Maize and Blue and they took advantage and seized the game against Alabama after that play. I do believe in talent and coaching and Michigan has the best on both sides of that equation heading into the title game. Micheal Penix Jr. can really spin it and has the best trio of wide receivers currently in the game. But Michigan has the defense to harass Penix and a back seven that can cover and tackle in space. Keep the big plays of over 20 yards to less than four. Michigan’s offense emptied the playbook in the semifinal versus the Tide. Don’t think they’ll need to be as fancy Monday night. Hopefully, UM’s special teams will perform as it did in the first 13 games of the season and not like they did on New Year's Day. Michigan wins the National Championship.

Michigan 35, Washington 27

After the 2020 season, who could have ever imagined at that time the Wolverines would be playing for a National Championship just a few years later? Yet, here we are, as Jim Harbaugh has gotten the program to the top of the college football world with just one more step on the ladder to climb after getting his team over the hump in the semifinal last Monday against Alabama. The challenge won’t be easy against Michael Penix Jr., Washington’s receiving corps and an offensive line that is elite in pass protection. Michigan’s secondary will have to make the receivers earn everything. But at this point, Jesse Minter has to be trusted to put together a great game plan to have some counterpunches for the Huskies’ explosive passing attack. Offensively, the Wolverines should be able to move the ball and find some balance with the run and pass. If they can chew some clock off within those possessions and control the tempo, which I think they will do, Michigan will bring a title back to Ann Arbor for the first time since 1997.

Michigan 38, Washington 28

It was January 1, 1998, when Michigan beat Washington State in the Rose Bowl to win the 1997 season’s national championship. A Lloyd Carr-coached Michigan squad scored touchdowns in each of the final three quarters after falling behind with a slow start. The Cougars had Ryan Leaf at quarterback, a perceived advantage to the Wolverines’ Brian Griese. Still, Michigan battled to a victory and finished off the season undefeated and 12-0. Now, 26 years later, Michigan is playing in the national championship against a different Washington school. Jim Harbaugh leads his 14-0 Wolverines into NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas with everything on the line, against Michael Penix (the perceived better quarterback). Expect the Wolverines to lean on their identity as they go up against a high-powered offense. After all, the recipe to win a game like this has been proven against the Ohio State Buckeyes in ‘21 and ‘22. Will Johnson gets an interception and Roman Wilson goes for 150-plus yards and a score. With offensive efficiency and a dominant defense, Michigan comes out on top.

Michigan 31, Washington 28

This team is built for this moment. All the guys that turned down the NFL for “one more year”, all the seniors, all the experience on this team, all the stuff they had to deal with off the field this year. They’re battle-tested, and they’re ready for this moment. They have the best defense in the country and a balanced offensive attack that stresses defenses in many different ways. Their special teams have been great all year (minus the Rose Bowl). They’ve been the most complete team in the country since September. Now in comes Washington, also undefeated, with an elite QB and an elite WR core. This game will be a challenge to contain them, but the Wolverines are uniquely equipped for this challenge. I expect them to use a bend but don’t break the gameplan in this game, and pin their ears back to go get after Michael Penix with their elite DL. The Michigan rushing attack will be the key to killing TOP, and this Washington defense can be run on. The Wolverines will set a physical tone early, but Washington’s offense is good enough to keep pace for a while, as I think it’ll be close for the first 2-3 quarters. The Wolverines' depth and physicality will wear on the Huskies all game and it’ll start to show in the 4th qtr when the Wolverines take control of the game for good. I fully expect the Wolverines to with the National Title for the first time since 1997.

Michigan 38, Washington 27

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