The Ultimate Guide to Michigan football schedule in 2022

Michigan is looking to build off a Big Ten championship season in 2021 and reach the national championship pinnacle.

To do that, the Wolverines have 12 opponents ahead of them, and there's a lot you probably don't know about them.

Did you know that the first opponent on Michigan's schedule has a top 50 projected defense? How about Maryland having two NFL Draft caliber wideouts and the most accurate quarterback in the country?

12 games. 12 opponents. One place to learn what Michigan must do to beat them and what the opposition could do to challenge the Wolverines.

Here is the Ultimate Guide to Michigan football for 2022.

In this guide, you'll see a lot of numbers and projections, so here's a guide within the guide to know what you're looking at.

PFF: Pro Football Focus has a power rankings system, expected win totals, conference championship chances, strength of schedule, picks for breakout players, key starters, etc. You'll see each team's details from PFF in each game preview.

SP Projections: Started and still carried by Bill Connelly. The SP+ Projections are the most reliable projections system year-to-year in college football. You'll see SP+ Rankings for teams and both offenses & defenses in each game preview.

According to Connelly, SP+ is a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

PFF Rank: 5th

SP+ Team Rank: 6th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 6th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 17th

Projected win total: 9.1 (PFF), 9.6 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: 15.0% (PFF)

Returning Production

Team: 74th (61%)

Offense: 18th (78%)

Defense: 118th (45%)

Strengths: Returning offensive production, cornerback depth chart, NFL tight end duo, elite 1-2 punch at running back, one of the best offensive lines in the country

Weaknesses: Replacing star power on defense, no proven pass rushers, young linebackers, picking a quarterback

Biggest question mark: When will J.J. McCarthy take over at quarterback?

X-Factors: D.J. Turner, Mazi Smith, Ronnie Bell, Blake Corum

PFF Rank: Not ranked (65 teams)

SP+ Team Rank: 96th (-7.6 spots since May)

SP+ Offensive Rank: 109th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 71st

Projected win total: 5.6 (SP+)

Returning Production

Team: 86th (59%)

Offense: 120th (46%)

Defense: 34th (73%)

Chances to win conference: N/A (PFF didn't provide a projection but the Rams are a potential contender in the Mountain West)

Strengths: Defensive returners, pass rushers, the defense was top 50 according to SP+ last season, new head coach Jay Norvell brings over a high-octane offensive playbook, and a ton of transfer additions, including starting quarterback Clay Millen

Weaknesses: Brand new coaching staff in their first game, replacing defensive production with transfers in a new system, not enough talent to stack against a top 30 team, don't force many takeaways, four of five projected starting o-linemen transferred in

Biggest question mark: Can the transfers gel together right away?

X-Factors: WR Troy Horton Jr.

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan's defense will control the line of scrimmage, and its skill players will give Colorado State's defense trouble all day.

Why they will beat Michigan: A miracle from the air raid.

PFF Rank: Not ranked (65 teams)

SP+ Team Rank: 123 out of 130

SP+ Offensive Rank: 101st

SP+ Defensive Rank: 129th

Projected win total: 3.9 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: N/A

Returning Production

Team: 130th (27%)

Offense: 126th (33%)

Defense: 131st (21%)

Strengths: Entirely brand new roster, should be able to air it out with QB transfer, decent WR weapons, good DT Blessman Ta’ala

Weaknesses: Almost every defensive starters graduated or transferred, mostly brand new roster, traveling cross country in the team's second game with new staff

Biggest question mark: Just about everything is a question mark for Hawaii.

X-Factors: DT Blessman Ta’ala

Why Michigan will beat them: The Wolverines offense should be surgical against the Hawaii defense that could very well end up being the worst in the country, currently ranked 129th out of 130, according to SP+.

Why they will beat Michigan: Another miracle but even more so.

PFF Rank: Not ranked (65 teams)

SP+ Team Rank: 128th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 129th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 122nd

Projected win total: 2.5 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: N/A

Returning Production

Team: 43rd (68%)

Offense: 65th (62%)

Defense: 36th (73%)

Strengths: Good linebacker play, Penn State QB Ta'Quan Roberson transferred in, plenty of transfers who will play

Weaknesses: Both the offensive and defensive lines, new coaching staff and relatively brand new roster

Biggest question mark: The trench play

X-Factors: QB Ta'Quan Roberson

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan is ranked well over 100 spots higher than UConn on both sides of the ball and overall. On paper, it should be a 40-to-50 point deficit.

Why they will beat Michigan: Uhhhh. No.

ALERT: Trap Game, First Test

PFF Rank: 52nd

SP+ Team Rank: 54th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 29th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 89th

Projected win total: 5.5 (SP+) 6.7 (PFF)

Chances to win conference: 3.4%

Returning Production

Team: 41st (68%)

Offense: 12th (81%)

Defense: 101st (55%)

Strengths: Offense, offense, offense. Two NFL wideouts and an NFL-caliber quarterback with elite accuracy and efficiency numbers at a high volume.

Weaknesses: Defense, defense, defense. Maryland is projected to be one of the bottom 40 defenses in America. 121st in Havoc Rate (PFF), 99th in Pressure Rate, and 88th in 3rd Down Conversion Rate. Maryland's personnel didn't improve, either. Expect a bad defense to play second fiddle to a prolific offense.

Biggest question mark: The defense's ability to compensate for its poor pass coverage with pressure on the quarterback.

X-Factors: QB Taulia Tagovailoa, WR Dontay Demus Jr, WR Rakim Jarrett

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan will sacrifice 14-17 points defensively, but the Wolverines' offensive line should knock Maryland's trench play around and create holes in the second level for the backs. Additionally, the skill players for U-M will put the Maryland defensive coordinator in a scheming nightmare.

Why they will beat Michigan: The Terps will use their offense to take an early lead, then play a bit of ball control, giving Michigan a taste of their own medicine.

ALERT: Most Challenging Road Game Outside of Columbus

PFF Rank: 22nd

SP+ Team Rank: 27th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 63rd

SP+ Defensive Rank: 8th

Projected win total: 7.6 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: 5.7%

Returning Production

Team: 27th (71%)

Offense: 24th (75%)

Defense: 53rd (68%)

Strengths: Defensive back play, linebacker play, creating turnovers, ball control, elite tight end play, should get to the passer

Weaknesses: Offensive line struggled for the first time in years, quarterback play is bottom-barrel of Big Ten, skill players are a tier below

Biggest question mark: Who will be the quarterback?

X-Factors: Turnovers. If Iowa can keep the pace it had last year, it will continue to win games it shouldn't (see: Penn State last year).

Why Michigan will beat them: The same way Michigan beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game last year. The Wolverines have no problem game-planning against a team like Iowa using their offensive skill players to create two 60-plus yard plays in a 42-3 win last season.

Why they will beat Michigan: Bully ball and ball control. Doing what Michigan did to Washington last year by using powerful offensive line play and stifling defensive play to shut down the Wolverines and be comfortable winning marginally with a low-scoring output on both sides.

PFF Rank: 76th

SP+ Team Rank: 86th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 98th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 67th

Projected win total: 3.4 (SP+), 4.8 (PFF)

Chances to win conference: 0.7%

Returning Production

Team: 107th (54%)

Offense: 110th (49%)

Defense: 88th (59%)

Strengths: Tied for sixth in the country with transfers (13) after poor 2021 season. Replacement at running back is former Auburn back Shaun Shivers, who should be a difference-maker. Secondary should be much better given multiple starters are healthy after injuries last year, including Tiawan Mullen.

Weaknesses: Limited quarterback play even with a transfer, offense will struggle with lack of playmakers, offensive & defensive lines

Biggest question mark: The offense as a whole.

X-Factors: CB Tiawan Mullen

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan's trenches were its strength last year, and while the defensive line needs some retooling, it's in a much better spot than Indiana's o-line, arguably its biggest weakness. Indiana's secondary may challenge U-M's passing attack, but its defensive front is no match for Michigan's o-line and running back tandem.

Why they will beat Michigan: Dinking and dunking with blitz counters and underneath passes on offense while the defense showcases the ball-hawking ability of Mullen and the safeties in an upset effort in Bloomington.

PFF Rank: 16th

SP+ Team Rank: 13th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 48th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 6th

Projected win total: 7.1 (PFF) 8.2 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: 5.9%

Returning Production

Team: 69th (63%)

Offense: 38th (69%)

Defense: 98th (57%)

Strengths: Defense is filled with future pros, right personnel to thrive in man coverage, blitz designs matched with defensive back play equals explosive defensive play, good WR core, experienced quarterback play

Weaknesses: QB Sean Clifford is good but can be wildly turnover friendly at any given moment, weak pass rush and pressure rates (92nd overall), how will blitz-heavy scheme work against a balanced attack that can run successfully against the blitz?

Biggest question mark: Creating pressure on the passer defensively and being explosive on offense. The run game.

X-Factors: WR Parker Washington

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan gets them at home, where Harbaugh has delivered knockout blows to James Franklin over the years despite Franklin's team getting the better of Harabugh's in 2020. Michigan's rushing attack will find gaps on designed PSU blitzes and utilize the RPO to counter the blitz-heavy scheme and allow their speedy skill players to work underneath. Defensively, shutdown corner D.J. Turner will keep Parker Washington at bay, and the disguised blitzes will force Clifford into a costly turnover late.

Why they will beat Michigan: Parker Washington will excel in space against a Wolverine defense that prides itself on limiting plays after the catch but still isn't enough to scheme against a weapon like Washington. Clifford plays as close to clean as he can, and the run game does enough to keep U-M honest on play action. Michigan, still rolling with McNamara, is too patient and never takes a shot at the dagger to separate the game. Penn State falls behind early, but U-M stays too patient, and when it's time to start taking shots, PSU's pressure and elite coverage prove to be the difference.

ALERT: Rivalry Game, Revenge Game

PFF Rank: 17th

SP+ Team Rank: 15th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 20th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 20th

Projected win total: 8.2 (SP+) 7.5 (PFF)

Chances to win conference: 6.5%

Returning Production

Team: 33rd (70%)

Offense: 55th (65%)

Defense: 31st (75%)

Strengths: QB Payton Thorne is back with dynamic wideout Jayden Reed, defending the run, interior defensive line, top 30 pressure rate last year, 8 more transfers to replace various positions including running back and in the secondary

Weaknesses: Pass coverage was abysmal, every position group gets worse on offense, the 8 transfers MSU brought in combined for 6,833 snaps (17th most among teams who used the portal) but -0.36 FBS wins in 2021, the worst rate in the country; defending third down (77th nationally in 2021)

Biggest question mark: Can Michigan State defend the pass?

X-Factors: The trio of Payton Thorne, Jalen Berger, and Jayden Reed

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan's skill players will have a field day against a Michigan State secondary that, despite a dip into the transfer portal with former SEC players, didn't improve nearly enough. The Wolverines will use a 2 QB system and J.J McCarthy's arm talent will be on display, sparking a debate if he should take over as the season winds down. Offensively, Michigan State QB Payton Thorne struggles to find Reed open in all-day shadow coverage from D.J. Turner. The Spartans can't keep up with the U-M pace and after the maize & blue jump out to a 17-0 lead with an aggressive offensive approach to begin the game, U-M turns to the run to slow the game down. MSU climbs back with its rush D holding Corum & Edwards, but at home, the Wolverines let the arms loose enough to win it 42-21.

Why they will beat Michigan: Payton Thorne's versatility is underlooked and he showcases it in the Big House that day by using his legs to extend plays with his plethora of speedy skill players. Jaylen Reed finds open ground and shines after the catch, while Kenneth Walker's replacement, Jalen Berger, gives MSU the balanced attack it needs to keep Michigan's defense guessing. Defensively, the MSU secondary plays inspired and forces McNamara to throw it deep when he's in, then forces McCarthy to make short throws when he's in. Can one or both of the quarterbacks handle a defense forcing them out of their strengths? The Spartan run defense is as advertised and contains Corum & Edwards, forcing the Wolverines to get even more creative offensively. Still, the Spartans need a high score to come out on top, similar to last year, because its defense won't contain U-M long enough to win with less than 24 points.

PFF Rank: 78th

SP+ Team Rank: 80th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 96th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 56th

Projected win total: 4.7 (PFF) 4.2 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: 0.4%

Returning Production

Team: 76th (61%)

Offense: 44th (68%)

Defense: 102nd (55%)

Strengths: Coverage corners on the outside, wideouts are talented, transfer impact includes starters at WR and OT, safeties are good in run support, 3rd down defense was 11th in the country

Weaknesses: Trench play, slot coverage, quarterback competition is undecided; offense as a whole: 129th in the country in Explosive Play Rate (7.9%), 124th in 3rd down conversion rate, 81st in pressure rate allowed

Biggest question mark: Will Noah Vedral keep his job despite his limitations? Or will Greg Schiano bet on former four-star recruit, sophomore Gavin Wimsatt?

X-Factors: WR Taj Harris (Syracuse) transfers in who has consistent catchability concerns, but is one of the best wideouts after the catch in the country, breaking the second most tackles (49) in the country at the position in 2021.

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan's trench play is yet again a difference-maker and continues to be the reason it's so hard to pick a team to upset the defending Big Ten champions. Taj Harris may give U-M scares after the catch and in space, but the Wolverines' offense will have no problem gashing Rutgers' weakness in covering the slot and rushing the ball with an o-line that will bulldoze through the Scarlet Knights' front.

Why they will beat Michigan: The matchup just doesn't give Rutgers much of a shot. However, let's say Schiano hands the ball over to Wimsatt who finally gives Rutgers the type of explosive play ability it desperately needs on offense, while the defense sacrifices points but defends the outside pass and the second level in the run game. It won't be easy but at home, the Scarlet Knights play spoiler and walk out victors.

ALERT: Trap Game

PFF Rank: 60th

SP+ Team Rank: 44th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 53rd

SP+ Defensive Rank: 33rd

Projected win total: 6.3 (PFF) 6.9 (SP+)

Chances to win conference: 3.7%

Returning Production

Team: 95th (56%)

Offense: 89th (55%)

Defense: 99th (56%)

Strengths: Defense finally seems stable with returning production, decent pressure rates, former Texas QB Casey Thompson transfers in and should be better than Adrian Martinez, true No. 1 wideout in Omar Manning, potential lockdown corner in FCS transfer Omar Brown, linebackers are great in pass coverage, spirited program following last year's heartbreaking losses

Weaknesses: Linebackers are bad against rhe run, offensive line (127th in the country in pressure rate allowed 47.3%) didn't improve and could be worse, Thompson is a better pure QB than Martinez but lacks the legs to extend plays/drives, zone coverage will hurt them against experienced quarterbacks with good route-runners

Biggest question mark: Can the offensive line be serviceable enough to allow the offense to reach its potential? Without a scrambling quarterback who can improvise, is there a way this works with a bad o-line?

X-Factors: The defense will have to be the team's X-Factor, which it can be given its experience and star power at corner and edge. Should be excellent at defending the pass, but will have to improve against the run and in pressure rates if the offense struggles to score due to its trench play.

Why Michigan will beat them: Again, trench play. This time it's more specific because, what are Nebraska's strengths and weaknesses? Defensive line is a strength, but it has to go up against arguably the best o-line in the country against Michigan. Offensive line is a weakness and the U-M interior should feast and while the edge-rushers lack snaps, they're more than capable of dominating the Huskers' tackles that day. Michigan's run game goes wild with Corum & Edwards each getting in the end zone, while the Wolverines elite pressure rates give the immobile Thompson problems all day.

Why they will beat Michigan: A spirited Huskers team comes to the Big House with a vengenace following last season's heartbreaker at home against U-M. The defense completely shuts down U-M's passing game and has no issue sacrificing decent run plays in a bend-don't-break effort. Thompson is surgical with his accuracy tools and finds the 6-foot-4 wideout Omar Manning in the end zone twice.

PFF Rank: 61st

SP+ Team Rank: 79th

SP+ Offensive Rank: 104th

SP+ Defensive Rank: 42nd

Projected win total: 4.4 (SP+) 6.0 (PFF)

Chances to win conference: 2.3%

Returning Production

Team: 103rd (55%)

Offense: 72nd (59%)

Defense: 113th (50%)

Strengths: Run game, offensive line produced seventh-best run blocking grade nationally (PFF), starting RB Chase Brown is back, linebacker play, both offensive tackles are good, 36% conversion rate when defending 3rd down (27th nationally in 2021)

Weaknesses: Returning production, QB transfer Tommy DeVito struggled at Syracuse, secondary has questions, 94th in Explosive Play Rate (11%)

Biggest question mark: How can they create an offensive rhythym without a threat in the passing game?

X-Factors: RB Chase Brown -- 81.0 PFF Grade, T-6th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.14), 18th in Explosive Run Rate (17.1%), T-26th in Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (0.26)

Why Michigan will beat them: Michigan is the better team and its strength on its defense line is in its interior along with how well the linebackers cover the run. It plays directly against Illinois' only offensive strength, and should be enough to keep the Wolverines separated, comfortably, from start to finish.

Why they will beat Michigan: A miracle ... DeVito would need to suddenly have a cannon, or Michigan's trench play needs to be bad enough that day to allow Illinois to run all over them. On the defenisve side of the ball, the Illini secondary plays disciplined and limits mistakes while its linebackers shine in pass coverage, forcing costly turnovers in an upset setting.

ALERT: Toughest Game, Most Decisive Game

PFF Rank: 3rd

SP+ Team Rank: 3rd

SP+ Offensive Rank: 1st

SP+ Defensive Rank: 15th

Projected win total: 10.4 (SP+) 10.0 (PFF)

Chances to win conference: 32.3%

Returning Production

Team: 29th (71%)

Offense: 53rd (66%)

Defense: 28th (76%)

Strengths: Returning production from important positons, elite offense including three of the best at their position in the country in QB C.J. Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and an offensive line with multiple NFL pieces that allowed a 22.9% Pressure Rate last season (16th) and returns the bulk of the unit.

Weaknesses: Defense is still a concern despite no shortage of talent, defensive 3rd Down Conversion Rate (43.8%) ranked 106th, secondary isn't a sure thing, Stroud's ability to extend plays

Biggest question mark: Can the defense not be a liability with a new defensive coordinator? Is the offensive line as good as advertised and equipped to protect the limited legs of Stroud?

X-Factors: Quite literally every offensive starter. It's ridiculous. Fully capable of 50-plus per game. One of the best pure, non-gimicky, offenses OSU has ever had.

Why Michigan will beat them: Shockingly, not the same way they did last year. At least not with five rushing touchdowns. In Columbus, Michigan lets J.J. McCarthy and Cade McNamara both chuck the ball around against an OSU secondary that can't match up with the trio of Ronnie Bell, Andrel Anthony, and Darrius Clemons' mix of size and speed. But the biggest day comes from the tight ends, Erick All and Luke Schoonmaker, who provide both signal-callers with a safety valve that can move after the catch in pass plays. Michigan very likely approaches this game prioritizing the ability to throw the ball at a high rate early in the game since OSU will likely scheme against the run. Once the passing lanes begin to full up, that allows the o-line to push and open up space for the Corum & Edwards 1-2 punch. Defensively, similar to last year, Michigan will have to keep the ball in front of them to limit Stroud & Co. from explosive plays (2nd nationally in 2021). D.J. Turner plays even better than he did in 2021, limiting a lethal wideout trio. The pressure from Michigan's disguised blitzes force Stroud into a late mistake. A shootout in Columbus ends with the maize & blue on top 42-39.

Why they will beat Michigan: Ohio State is pissed after a historically bad loss at Michigan last year after eight consecutive victories in the rivalry. Their NFL offense has a blast and similar to their game against Michigan State at home last year, they fill up the scoreboard. Defensively, there's no stopping Michigan's balanced attack with OSU's talented but suspect defense. However, the prolific offense overpowers Michigan from the jump and it looks a lot like what we were used to seeing before last year. Buckeyes roll 56-38.

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