Updating ESPN's FPI projections for Michigan Football in Week 9

Michigan is headed out of the bye week with a date against Michigan State under the lights looming on Saturday.

As for ESPN's FPI ratings, the Wolverines retain the No. 4 overall spot despite being off last week.

Before we look at the FPI projections for U-M the rest of the way, what is FPI exactly?

ESPN describes it as the following: FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.

It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams.

Let's break down U-M's FPI schedule for each remaining game on the schedule.

Michigan State

Previously: 90.3%

Chances of Michigan winning: 90.2%

Rutgers

Previously: 94.5%

Chances of Michigan winning: 94.1%

Nebraska

Previously: 96.1%

Chances of Michigan winning: 96.0%

Illinois

Previously: 88.6%

Chances of Michigan winning: 88.2%

Ohio State

Previously: 24.9%

Chances of Michigan winning: 24.3%