Vegas Signals Favoring Michigan to Cover vs. Penn State

Michigan football hosts Penn State on Saturday, and there's a clear side to bet, according to the signals.

Vegas and the oddsmakers that populate Sin City are the gatekeepers of expected outcomes in all sports.

When spreads, totals, props, and all the rest are set, it is the universal reference for the "this or that?" questions.

Sports fans are no longer asking if teams will win. They're asking if teams will cover. Whether on your local news channel, ESPN, or your buddy's basement podcast, sports forever changed when sports betting normalized.

Vegas, or "The Book," is winning more than ever because of its ability to outsmart all of us more & more since its legalization.

So, how does it see Saturday's top 10 matchup in Ann Arbor playing out?

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Michigan (6-0, 3-0) will beat Penn State (5-0, 2-0) by a touchdown or more, according to the -7 line favoring the home.

Let's dig deeper.

Before we start, here are some relevant trends:

- James Franklin is 1-3 at Michigan Stadium, with the lone win coming in 2020

- James Franklin's teams are 8-9 after a bye week

- Penn State is 7-3 ATS (against the spread) in its last 10 road games dating back to last season

- Michigan is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games

- Michigan is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Big Ten games

All trends via VegasInsider.com

When Vegas moves a spread early in the week, it's because of the money on one side or a professional bettor(s) placing a large wager on a side.

However, this number hasn't moved, having been frozen at 7 for most of the week with hook moves each way.

When the line doesn't move, it's a frozen line. Despite an alarming amount of money/bets on one side, Vegas won't budge on its line and may kick the line out the opposite of the wagers.

Earlier this week, the Penn State spread had upwards of 75% of the money. Still, Michigan remained a 7-point favorite.

Throughout the week, it's been all maize & blue as, at the time of writing, U-M has 37% of the money after having less than 25% a couple of days earlier.

Friday nights are always significant in Vegas -- typically, oddsmakers will get sensitive information about a game -- game plan, injuries, locker room turmoil, etc. -- before the weekend, and it will instantly impact the line.

Michigan remains a touchdown favorite, and pro bettors are siding with the Wolverines, according to The Action Network's signals, nearing game day's witching hour. Additionally, Vegas is giving Penn State bettors (-108) more bang for their buck than Michigan (-113).

Oddsmakers are wrong every week, like when Alabama beat Texas A&M at home by four as 24-point favorites. But they can also be impressively accurate, like when the Michigan/Hawaii total finished at 66 when the total was set at 67.

Vegas' telltale signals in this game are clearly on one side: the Wolverines.

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