Buy Or Sell: Dickinson Will Be U-M's Most Important Newcomer Next Season
Of the 12 scholarship players currently slated to be on the Michigan Wolverines' basketball team next year (it's looking more and more like the 13th spot won't be filled), five will be newcomers.
That means 41.6 percent of U-M's scholarship players will be made up of new faces, which begs the question: which of them will be the most important in 2020-21?
Head coach Juwan Howard signed a four-man freshmen recruiting class that was headlined by Hyattsville (Md.) DeMatha four-star center Hunter Dickinson, who is rated as the No. 34 overall prospect nationally and the second best four-star in the country.
He'll likely see the court right off the bat next year due to necessity, but is he the newcomer who is important to the Maize and Blue's success in Howard's second year on the job?
TheWolverine's Austin Fox and Clayton Sayfie discuss below:
Clayton Sayfie — Buy
Hunter Dickinson is the most important newcomer for U-M this season. The biggest reason is that his upside is the highest out of the bunch. If Dickinson’s development is more accelerated than some think it will be, he can boost the ceiling of the entire team, especially considering that he’ll be competing at a thin center position.
Mike Smith would be my second choice, because of the hole left at the point guard spot after Zavier Simpson graduated and David DeJulius transferred to Cincinnati. Even still, it’s hard to expect a whole lot from Smith.
Sure, he’ll have an opportunity to play and has a good chance of starting, but whether or not he can make a large impact at the Big Ten level as an Ivy League transfer remains to be seen.
Of the 50 players who transferred up a level to a high-major program a year ago and took the court this past season, just two averaged more than a dozen points per game, and only three put up more than an average of 10 shots per game, according to Watch Stadium basketball insider Jeff Goodman.
That’s telling. While it’s possible Smith makes a smooth transition to the big leagues, so to speak, I’m in wait and see mode. Eli Brooks has the capability to play the point guard spot if Smith is not ready to take on the starting duties, which provides a level of comfort for the backcourt.
U-M has options at shooting guard in Cole Bajema and Zeb Jackson, if Brooks does have to be the primary point guard. Lead guard and center are the two thinnest positions on U-M’s roster, but I believe the ceiling on a team with Austin Davis playing 20-plus minutes per game — something he has never done in his career — is limited.
So far, Juwan Howard has been unwilling to play Brandon Johns at the five spot for more than short stretches, though he may be forced to do it more often this season due to sheer numbers.
Dickinson’s upside makes him the most important newcomer on U-M’s roster. With a talent like Dickinson, who stands at a legit 7-foot-2, it’s a matter of when, not if, he breaks out and becomes an impact player.
If that’s sooner rather than later, U-M will be just fine next season, especially if stars Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner are on each wing.
Austin Fox — Buy
This one is a tough call, though Dickinson and fifth-year senior transfer point guard Mike Smith are the two most obvious answers to this question, seeing as how their arrivals each occur at positions of need.
We’ll give a slight edge to Dickinson, however, though it could go either way. The 7-2 center may be expected to contribute consistently a bit sooner than originally expected, thanks to the transfer of sophomore center Colin Castleton.
A potential center rotation made up of Dickinson, Castleton and Davis would have allowed Howard to ease the freshman into game action, but will likely no longer have that luxury with Dickinson and Davis slated to be the only two centers on next year’s roster.
Smith is in a similar position in Michigan’s backcourt in the wake of DeJulius’ transfer, with Howard limited on his point guards options next season. This makes the fifth-year senior’s progression and potential contributions all the more important, though it’s fair to be skeptical how significant of an impact he’ll actually have.
Mid-major players grad transfer up to power conference programs all the time nowadays, and almost never make a significant scoring impact at their new school. Here are a few of the primary examples we saw this past year alone: North Carolina forward Justin Pierce averaged just five points per game after tallying 14.9 in 2018-19 with William & Mary, Purdue guard Jahaad Proctor averaged nine points after compiling 19.5 two years ago with High Point, and Louisville guard Lamarr Kimble posted five points after averaging 15.6 with Saint Joseph’s in 2018-19.
Michigan also saw its own example of this with point guard Jaaron Simmons, when he registered 15.9 points per game with Ohio in 2016-17 but only 1.5 with U-M after transferring in for the 2017-18 campaign.
We aren’t suggesting Smith won’t make an impact next season, but just pointing out that it would be wise to temper his scoring expectations (he averaged 22.8 last year with Columbia).
If he can take care of the ball, play solid defense and grab a key bucket every now and then, his one season in Ann Arbor will likely be viewed as a success. The potential Dickinson possesses, meanwhile, could raise Michigan’s ceiling as a whole.
Many view him as a bit of a project and a player who will take some time to develop, but if he can turn into a consistent producer by the middle of the season (similar to the way Mitch McGary gradually progressed in 2012-13), it would take a lot of pressure off of Davis’ shoulders.
We’re not saying Dickinson is going to have the same kind of impact McGary did down the stretch in 2012-13, but he doesn’t need to; simply giving the club productive minutes will help solidify a center spot filled with question marks and will subsequently make him the Wolverines’ most important newcomer next season.
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