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We are approaching game day, the press conferences are wrapping up, the final bows are placed in practice, and tomorrow brings a New Year and the Rose Bowl matchup between Michigan and Alabama.

Whether this month has taken forever or flown by, a month is a month. Michigan has admitted to overpreparing for TCU in last season's playoff matchup. A "paralysis by analysis," as JJ McCarthy called it. McCarthy also admitted to maybe not taking TCU as seriously as they should. Lessons learned and a mistake that can't be made this year.

Michigan is the #1 team in the country and the favorite to win this game. They are even bigger favorites when you look at analytical services, yet the Wolverines feel like the underdog. It's simple, really, Alabama and Nick Saban have been here many times before. Michigan is in their third straight playoff game but has lost the previous two, and we all know the narrative on Harbaugh's bowl record overall.

But this isn't the same dominant Alabama team we have seen in the past. Still a damn good football team, but not unbeatable. And this doesn't feel like the same Michigan team, either. AS McCarthy said, the approach this year has been better, but we'll have to see if it works.

So, how does Michigan win this game? How do they prove the numbers are right and the bettors are wrong? Well, let's see what the numbers say.

Michigan's defense does not give up big plays. Paired with an offense that is slow, deliberate, and efficient at scoring, this is the most crucial piece of the defense when it comes to the balance. Just like if Michigan's offense is not staying on schedule and not giving the defense the long field and rest it needs, if the defense is giving up big plays, the offense has to get into a shootout.

Here is where the Wolverines rank in plays given up by yards.

The rank going down on longer plays is somewhat misleading because, in the case of the 50+, there are just a lot of teams that only gave up 1 or 2 plays of 50 yards or more. The point is only 3 plays of 50+ all season.

The fewest number of plays 10+ yards or longer tests the 'bend don't break' narrative. Truly, this defense doesn't bend much, but it doesn't break.

We got into Alabama quarterback in-depth earlier this week, breaking down his ability as a runner, which we will get to. But what stuck out to me is the dynamic in his deep ball passing vs intermediate throws.

By the Numbers: Michigan's plan to stop Jalen Milroe

Milroe is one of the best deep ball passers in college football and literally one of the worst passers in the 10-19 yard range.

A 50%+ completion on deep throws is elite; having a nearly identical number on intermediate is not. A yard-per-attempt average of 9.5 is lower than the range starting at 10-19.

But these Big Time Throws vs Turnover Worthy Plays are shocking. Pro Football Focus identifies a BTT as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." Deeper throws lend themselves to more BTT, but 25 is a massive number, and 1 is hard to believe.

A TWP is "a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling." I love this metric because sometimes a passer is "getting away with" bad throws that an excellent defense could expose.

Alabama doesn't have Jameson Williams or Devonta Smith this year, so the deep threat is not as terrifying as in years past. But Jermaine Burton is a deep threat. 38.5% of his targets are throws of 20 yards or more with an average depth of a target of 38.3. 5 of his 11 deep receptions are touchdowns.

This will bleed into the next section, but Michigan needs to keep the roof on the defense and not allow any big plays. Milroe's arm won't limit how deep Bama can go, so while corners and safeties need to do their best to stay locked in, the defensive front needs to do them favors and get after Milroe. Pressure, pressure, pressure.

Milroe's legs. You have to contain him, have a spy on him. Yes and no. Michigan has said all week it's 11 vs. 1 when it comes to Milroe. The entire defense needs to be responsible. I'm not saying never spy, but I hate giving Milroe 3.5-4 seconds to stand in the pocket and Bama receivers plenty of time to get away from coverage.

The hope is Michigan can create pressure and sack Milroe by bringing only 4. Their defensive interior has done an excellent job of creating pressure all year. Bama might be susceptible on the line. 33 pressures and 11 sacks have come from freshman LT Kadyn Proctor alone. I think Michigan will use stunts and blitzes on the left side.

C Seth McLaughlin has given up 12 pressures but no sacks. Milroe not getting caught by an interior defender isn't shocking, the EDGE players need to be ready to seal Milroe if Graham, Grant, and Jenkins can move the pocket.

It's not design runs I am worried about. It's Michigan allowing Milroe too much time, and then he scrambles for a big run or it's a receiver deep. The thing with spying is Milroe breaks tackles on scrambles, 17 missed tackles are forced, and 5.68 yards are after contact.

Colson and Barrett have to be huge in this game, there is no way around that, but as Harbaugh and others have said, this needs to be 11 vs. 1. Relentless pursuit and constant communication.

I have a weird feeling this will be an elite game plan from Minter. We saw things against Ohio State we haven't seen all year, and I wonder if this will be the same. Minter has been candid about the TCU game and seems focused on ensuring that it doesn't happen again.

All vibes and talk right now, we'll have to see.

I am a big fan of Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson. There is a good chance a Wilson crossing route or a Johnson sideline grab will be big moments in this game. Semaj Morgan has been electric, and Michigan should find ways to try to get him involved.

That said, I think the focus of the passing game needs to be the non-WR weapons. Colston Loveland, AJ Barner, and Donovan Edwards.

I have been screaming for more deep shots to Donovan Edwards. We got the one against Purdue, but that has been about it. Honestly, Edwards' usage all season has been questionable, but we've beaten that horse to death. Here's a game where the way they have used Edwards might be a perfect matchup.

Here's what excites me about the vulnerability of Bama linebackers in zone coverage. The average depth of target and the yards after catch. Along with Edwards, I have been calling for Loveland and Barner to get more deep seam looks as well. But again, for this game, do your thing, Michigan.

This is just strength vs weakness. The shorter throws allow McCarthy to stay in rhythm, take fewer risks, and live in the range where he is most accurate.

Loveland and Barner, as the Y, could thrive in shallow routes, in and out routes in the middle. That's where they do most of his short damage. We know Michigan loves to "sit" Edwards in the middle and swing him behind the line of scrimmage. Last time, I'll say this: one time, please let that turn into a wheel route.

Michigan will want to get the run game going, but these short passes in the middle can work as short runs that also have a chance to get big yards after the catch. It's the most obvious advantage I see.

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