Michigan Football Keys To The Game: Purdue
Through three games, Purdue is one of the nation’s biggest surprises, and probably the country’s most improved team from a year ago. New head coach Jeff Brohm has brought an exciting offense and a new attitude to West Lafayette, and the Boilermakers are playing hard — and, just as importantly, with confidence.
There are a lot of new faces in the way of junior college players and transfers, but the togetherness has been evident on Saturdays. They took a solid Louisville team to the wire, pounded a decent Ohio team and manhandled Missouri last weekend. Granted, the Tigers are awful, but going on the road and taking care of business is still a feat.
Brohm does seem to know this is a different animal, however, after watching the Wolverines on film.
“Now we’re on to the meat of the schedule and it starts off with a doggone good opponent,” Brohm said. “Early in the week, you watch and wonder, ‘Holy cow, how are we going to score?’ They’re fast and athletic. ... We’re going to have to study all week and figure something out. They’re good.
“... Right now, I have to let optimism build.”
It’s Michigan’s job to take it away early. The crowd will be into it — there’s more excitement about Purdue football in West Lafayette than there has been since a football Saturday didn’t conflict with the preseason Gold vs. Black basketball scrimmage — so letting the Boilermakers hang around would be a mistake.
Here are U-M’s keys to victory Saturday:
Get the momentum, keep the momentum: In three straight games now, Michigan has gotten off to fast starts and played extremely well for the first 10 minutes or so. Turnovers — back-to-back pick-sixes against Florida, a muffed punt against Cincinnati and a fumble versus Air Force — killed the momentum each time and turned what should have been blowouts into tighter than expected games.
Avoiding turnovers is step one. Not having to rely on the defense to change momentum back each time would be No. 2. Redshirt freshman punter Will Hart has had opportunities to help get it back a couple of times, but he shanked a few kicks that kept the ball rolling downhill. The offense can move the ball, but stagnates when it matters most.
The Wolverines need to put together a complete game on offense to match what they’ve accomplished on defense, and that means eliminating the mental mistakes that have cost them in the first three weeks. Teams can and have improved dramatically as seasons go on, of course, and there’s no reason why this one can’t. It starts with playing as well in the second (and third) quarters of games as they have in the first and fourth. Michigan has outscored its competition 56-13 in the first and final quarters combined and not allowed a fourth-quarter point yet this year, while the point differential is a much-closer 42-31 in the middle two frames.
It also means capping drives with touchdowns in the red zone rather than field goals. One out of 10 (so far) isn’t going to cut it.
Make the Boilermakers one-dimensional: Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown said Wednesday that for all the talk of Purdue’s passing game and how much the Boilermakers liked to air it out, he saw a team on film that was relatively balanced. Sophomore running back Tario Fuller has averaged 6.1 yards per carry and racked up 261 yards in three games — granted, he was held to 29 on six carries in the only “tough” game, a loss to Louisville, but he’s a capable back.
Quarterback David Blough has completed 51 of 67 passes for 597 yards, a remarkable 76.1 percent. But the Boilermakers also threw three picks against Louisville when everyone knew they had to take to the air to move the ball.
This Michigan defense is better than Louisville’s … much better. The Wolverines’ defensive backs match up very well with Purdue’s receivers, much the way they did when they shut down most of former coach Joe Tiller’s more explosive offenses back in the day. If the Boilers are in unfavorable down-and-distance situations, the Wolverines will have a huge advantage.
Limit big plays: We saw only one last week, a 64-yard touchdown pass on which the Wolverines were lulled to sleep a bit by the Air Force rushing attack, but this Purdue team will take a few more shots. To date, they’ve managed a 62-yard touchdown pass, along with 31- and 26-yarders, and a long run of 39 yards.
This Michigan defense is tough to move against. Sustained drives should be few and far between, even with Blough’s improvement, so preventing the big play is paramount. Florida had a few against the Michigan defensive backs, and even Cincinnati just missed on a few deep shots that could have changed the game.
U-M especially needs to keep an eye on the tight ends in this one. Junior Cole Herdman is the team’s leading receiver with 200 yards, averaging 28.6 yards per reception. They’ll try to target him Saturday.
The Breakdown: Purdue has been fun to watch through three games, and the turnaround has been remarkable. Michigan, though, still has better athletes at most positions, and the Wolverines’ coaching staff is tough to out-scheme. That’s not to take anything away from what Brohm and his staff have accomplished, either … Brohm would be the early favorite for Big Ten Coach of the Year, as Jim Harbaugh noted earlier this week.
The Wolverines are overdue for a complete game. The start of the Big Ten season is a good time to put it all together.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 30, Purdue 13
Michigan finally finds some consistency on offense and puts some points on the board, even with leading receiver Tarik Black home (broken foot) watching on TV.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 27, Purdue 17
It won’t be easy, but Michigan gets it done in West Lafayette.
(Bonus pick: Michigan 24, Ohio State 20)
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 31, Purdue 13
I just think Michigan still has way more talent than Purdue, and it’ll show on Saturday.
TheWolverine.com Writer Austin Fox: Michigan 27, Purdue 17
Michigan’s defense holds Purdue in check, and the offense finally starts to play a little better than it has been. The Wolverines win a tough one.
TheWolverine.com Writer Andrew Vailliencourt: Michigan 30, Purdue 17
There’s been a lot of hype surrounding Purdue and its new coaching staff, which by all means has done a nice job so far turning things around. However, rarely are programs rebuilt entirely in one year and I think Michigan will put Purdue back in its place — at least for a week.
Michigan will work out some of its offensive kinks, but not all, and the defense will take away the Purdue run game.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: TBD
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