Michigan Wolverines Football: Previewing Ohio State With A Buckeye Insider

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Kevin Noon of BuckeyeGrove was kind enough to break down Ohio State prior to this weekend's matchup with Michigan.

He explained what U-M should be on the lookout for on Saturday and gave a final score prediction at the end.

• QB Dwayne Haskins (redshirt sophomore) — His 36 touchdown passes are tied for the most in college football, and his average of 339 passing yards per game check in third. In addition, Haskins' 69.3 completion percentage is the seventh best in the country, and he has thrown for at least 405 yards in four of OSU's last six contests.

• RB J.K. Dobbins (sophomore) — Although he isn't quite posting the same kind of numbers he did last year (1,403 yards, 7.2 yards per carry), Dobbins is still having a respectable year with 915 rushing yards on a 4.7 average. He had his best showing last week against Maryland when he ran for 203 yards, but it was only the third time he had tallied more than 82 rushing yards in a game this season.

• WR Parris Campbell (redshirt senior) — He leads OSU in catches with 66 and is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with nine, but checks in second in yards (711). After posting 60 or more yards in five of the Buckeyes' first six affairs, Campbell has been held to 56 yards or fewer in every outing since.

• WR Terry McLaurin (redshirt senior) — His 30 catches rank fourth on the roster, but his 19.3 yards per catch are the highest mark in the Big Ten. McLaurin's nine TD grabs are also tied with Campbell for the team lead and are the third most in the league.

• WR Johnnie Dixon (redshirt senior) — Like McLaurin, Dixon's reception total (32) doesn't necessarily jump off the page, but his 15.1 yards per catch prove how much of a big-play threat he is. The fifth-year senior's two highest receiving totals of the year have come in two of OSU's last three contests, when he hauled in 96 yards against Nebraska on Nov. 3 and 102 yards last Saturday against Maryland.

• TE Luke Farrell (redshirt sophomore) — He has served as the Buckeyes' top pass-catching threat at tight end, reeling in 17 receptions for 180 yards and a score. Farrell will split reps with redshirt junior Rashod Berry, who serves as more of a blocker (just seven grabs for 73 yards).

• LT Thayer Munford (sophomore) — He left last week's victory over Maryland with an injury and never returned, but is "probable" to play against the Wolverines, according to Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer on Monday. Redshirt junior Joshua Alabi served as the team's left tackle in Munford's absence and would get the start if the sophomore isn't able to go.

• LG Malcolm Pridgeon (redshirt senior) — Despite being a fifth-year senior, Pridgeon is in his first year as a starter after transferring in from Nassau Community College prior to the 2016 campaign. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has tagged him with the second-lowest grade of OSU's starting linemen, with a 70.3 overall mark (64 is considered average).

• C Michael Jordan (junior) — He has incredibly started all 38 games of his collegiate career, playing right guard as a freshman and left guard as a sophomore. Jordan has since been moved to center after starter Billy Price graduated, and has been awarded a team-best 83.6 grade from PFF as a pass blocker.

• RG Demetrius Knox (redshirt senior) — Knox took over as the team's right guard last year after redshirt junior Branden Bowen went down with as injury. Bowen hasn't played this season, and Knox hasn't relinquished the starting job. PFF's grades have revealed he excels as both a pass blocker and a run blocker, with an 80.5 tally in the former and a 71 mark in the latter.

• RT Isaiah Prince (senior) — He has started the last 38 outings and was tabbed as an All-Big Ten third-teamer last season by both the coaches and media. Prince is one of three OSU starting linemen (Pridgeon and Jordan are the other two) to stand 6-7 and weigh at least 310 pounds.

• DE Chase Young (sophomore) — The sophomore has emerged the way many expected him to after being ranked as the No. 8 player in the country out of high school, racking up 10.5 tackles for loss and six sacks. His 83.1 overall grade from PFF is the third highest of any Buckeye defensive player.

• DT Dre'Mont Jones (redshirt junior) — Despite being a defensive tackle, Jones has actually tallied the best statistics of any OSU defender in 2018, leading the club in both sacks (7.5) and tackles for loss (12). His 91 overall mark from PFF is the best of any defensive player currently on OSU's team (former defensive end Nick Bosa, who withdrew from school after getting injured, had the best at 93.1).

• DT Robert Landers (redshirt junior) — Even though he has played 276 snaps this year, Landers has only compiled 16 tackles and three TFLs, and is still seeking his first sack. Meyer has rotated redshirt junior Davon Hamilton in at defensive tackle quite often, evidenced by his 286 snaps played.

• DE Jonathan Cooper (junior) — He hasn't been quite the force off the edge that Young has been, but has still registered 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks of his own. Cooper's 67.7 mark from PFF is actually the second lowest of the 11 Buckeye defensive starters (sophomore safety Brendon White's 61.8 is the lowest).

• LB Tuf Borland (redshirt sophomore) — He has accumulated very impressive numbers from his linebacker spot, checking in third on the team in both tackles (48) and stops behind the line of scrimmage (nine). PFF has not been fond of his pass coverage abilities, though, slapping him with a 58.8 mark in that department.

• LB Malik Harrison (junior) — His 57 tackles lead the team, and he has also logged 6.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Harrison has been incredibly consistent in the OSU linebacking corps, playing at least 55 snaps in all but two contests he has appeared in this year (he missed one game with an injury).

• LB Pete Werner (sophomore) — The first-year starter's 47 tackles and 7.5 TFLs are the fourth most on the squad. His 70.2 season-long grade from PFF is impressive, but is just 14th among OSU defenders who have seen the field this season.

• CB Kendall Sheffield (redshirt junior) — He has picked off two passes in 2018, and his six pass breakups are tied for the team lead. Meyer has used a heavy rotation at cornerback this year, though, with sophomore Jeffrey Okudah and redshirt freshman Shaun Wade often seeing time as well.

• CB Damon Arnette (redshirt junior) — Like Sheffield, Arnette has also been subbed out at times for Wade and Okudah, evidenced by the fact he has played more than 43 snaps just once in the team's last four outings. With that being said, though, his 73.5 tally from PFF is the highest of any Ohio State cornerback.

• S Jordan Fuller (junior) — Michigan fans likely remember Fuller best for his game-saving play in last year's matchup, when he picked off quarterback John O'Korn late in the fourth quarter when the Wolverines were starting to mount a game-winning drive. PFF has tagged the junior with a 77.4 grade, which is the fifth highest of any OSU defender and the best of any defensive back.

• S Brendon White (sophomore) — He has been forced into a starting role due to an injury to sophomore Isaiah Pryor and has struggled mightily. His 61.8 grade by PFF is 26th among OSU defensive players who have seen the field this year.

• K Blake Haubeil (sophomore) — He became the team's primary kicker due to an injury to fifth-year senior Sean Nuernberger,. Haubeil has made seven of his nine field goals on the year, but is 3 of 5 between 30 and 50 yards (he has not attempted any longer than 50).

• P Drue Chrisman (redshirt sophomore) — He has punted 46 times for a 42.5-yard average, which ranks fifth in the Big Ten among 10 qualified punters. Chrisman has struggled as of late, though, averaging just 37.8 and 36.5 yards per punt in his last two games, respectively.

"The numbers would show that Ohio State's passing game has been its biggest strength, with Haskins breaking the single-season passing records for yards and touchdowns just through 11 games this year," Noon explained. "That is a combination of having a strong-armed quarterback who is confident in the throwing game and a group of receivers that are deep and diverse within the offense.

"That does not mean that the throwing game has worked in 11 out of 11 games — it did not work against Michigan State in a matchup that really bogged down on both sides, and it did not work against Purdue despite Ohio State putting up 73 pass attempts when the rushing attack was not there at all."

At first glance, OSU's passing game is one of the best in the country. It ranks third in both yards per contest with 363.5, and in completion percentage at 70.1 percent.

However, as Noon noted, it has had its struggles at times.

It only completed 56.3 percent of its throws in a 36-31 win over Nebraska on Nov. 3, and 56.4 percent in the one-point win at Penn State on Sept. 29.

On the flip side, Michigan's secondary ranks as the best in the country, yielding just 123.2 yards per contest and an 88.74 passer rating, marks that both lead the country by a fairly significant margin.

How much success Haskins and the OSU aerial assault have on the U-M defensive backs may be the biggest key to Saturday's game.

"I would say the biggest weakness on offense is a lack of discipline, in terms of penalties," the analyst noted. "Ohio State has shot itself in the foot more than any team in recent memory with false starts, holds and other penalties that act as drive killers.

"The penalties are really on both sides of the ball, but it just seems to be even more noticeable on offense when the Buckeyes have seen promising drives cut short due to a bad decision."

Ohio State is actually one of the most penalized teams in all of college football, committing 7.8 infractions per game (which ranks 113th nationally). The Buckeyes have had three different affairs where they committed 10 offensive penalties, and one where they committed 11.

On the flip side, Michigan is one of the most penalized clubs in the country as well, enduring an average of seven infractions per game (96th).

The Wolverines have cleaned up their act as of late, however, committing a total of just six over the last two weeks.

"If you look at some of the defensive numbers, you might be hard pressed to say that anything has been strong this season, at least once this team got to Big Ten play," Noon admitted. "By process of elimination, I will give it to the defensive line, but even that unit took a major hit with the loss of Bosa in game three of the season. The team has to often blitz and bring more than four to get a pass rush, where it was able to get to the quarterback with four when Bosa was playing.

"It is not that the defensive line has played poorly this year, but it has not been as much of a game-changer as it has been in other seasons."

Ohio State's TFL numbers are still impressive (80 on the year, which is the second most in the Big Ten), and its 31 sacks are tied for the second most in the league.

The front seven has not been good at stopping opposing rushing attacks, though — they rank 63rd in college football, allowing 161.2 yards per game.

Six of the Buckeyes' 11 opponents have rushed for 178 yards or more, including a whopping 340 yards and a 7.2 average last week from Maryland.

U-M, meanwhile, contains ground games at a high level, giving up just 111.6 yards per contest (14th nationally).

If Dobbins and redshirt junior running back Mike Weber aren't able to have success running the ball against Michigan, it would cause the OSU offense to become even more one-dimensional than it already is.

"It would be easy to pick either the linebackers or the defensive backs here, but I am going to go to the next level and say that it is the coaching," the insider revealed. "The defensive coaching has not been good, especially from a scheme and play-calling standpoint. The Buckeyes were slow to react when teams had finally solved their press-man defense to run more zone action to combat that.

"Ohio State still insists on walking its linebackers to the line and often hanging them out to dry in doing so, and the other mistakes have been very noticeable — Ohio State is just slow to react with changes on the fly.

"Yes, they have been decimated with early entries into the NFL and just being young in the back seven, but ultimately it has been some curious decisions on defense that have been more detrimental to the cause than the youth."

As a whole, OSU's defense checks in at 70th nationally, surrendering 398.6 yards per game.

Those numbers are obviously alarming when considering the unit has finished as one of the nine best in the country each of the last three years.

Greg Schiano is listed as the club's defensive coordinator, while Alex Grinch — who is in his first year with the program after being brought in from Washington State — is tabbed as co-defensive coordinator.

Whether there is a disagreement in philosophy among the defensive coaches is unknown, but most are in agreement the unit is underachieving immensely when considering how much talent the Buckeyes have on that side of the ball.

"I have gone around and around on this one," Noon admitted. "There are 100 reasons to pick Michigan in this game and maybe a dozen reasons to pick Ohio State. At the end of the day, Ohio State has won these games lately and Michigan has not.

"I understand this 'revenge tour,' but [U-M fifth-year senior defensive end] Chase Winovich seems as if he might not be able to answer the curtain call this week, and that will be a big hit. Ohio State has plenty of pressure on it, but Michigan and Jim Harbaugh have more pressure for many reasons.

"Michigan is not as much of a home-run team as some others that Ohio State has played, and that fits better into what Ohio State's defense is successful at defending. Will Jim Harbaugh go out and do what Michigan does best, or try and incorporate too much of what he feels Ohio State is worst at defending?

"I think he might try and tinker too much in this game, and that ultimately will end up being what derails Michigan's efforts in the end."

Ohio State 28, Michigan 25

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