What They're Saying Ahead Of Michigan's Matchup With Rutgers
Michigan Wolverines football (3-0) is set to open the Big Ten season Saturday afternoon against Rutges (3-0).
Here is a look around the nation at what they're saying heading into the contest.
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While nobody has come out and explicitly stated it, there have been allusions to some disconnect on the staff last season, leading to a lack of cohesion between the coaches to the players and, in turn, the players to each other.
That doesn't appear to be the case any longer.
Harbaugh wasn't willing to take any more chances, hiring coaches who he could trust and who he knew would work well together and with the players. Bringing back Ron Bellamy and Mike Hart made a whole lot of sense, as did hiring Mike Macdonald Macdonald, who came highly recommended by John Harbaugh, quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss, who got his start in coaching under Harbaugh at Stanford, linebackers coach George Helow, who had a strong bond with Macdonald and defensive backs coach Steve Clinkscale, who Harbaugh had admired for some time and tried to hire in the past.
"Coach Harbaugh, the staff that he’s assembled, it’s awesome," Bellamy said. The guys, we’ve meshed well together. We have fun — it’s serious, but fun. We hold each other accountable and that, for me, has been good."
Step one of Harbaugh's attempt to not only stop the proverbial Michigan football train from continuing to go in the wrong direction is done — the culture is better and appears to be excellent. Step two is keeping the culture intact no matter what adversity lies ahead.
And as Harbaugh said this week, "we’re about to find out, that’s for sure," if the Wolverines are up for the task.
Blake Corum already has 407 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on the season. As a Michigan fan, I’m hesitant to fall in love with a September Heisman (see Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson), but what are you expecting from Corum going forward? Is this for real, or has he just been carving up mediocre competition?
— Jeff
This feels more like a question about Michigan in general. The Wolverines have been great on the ground, and their line has absolutely mauled the first three opponents. Michigan has controlled nearly every minute it has played this season.
The question now is what happens when the Wolverines face a capable opposing defense. Can they continue to grind out wins on the ground, or will the passing game have to carry some of the weight? The good news is that if Michigan continues to run the ball even close to as well as it has, that should make throwing easier. So far, QB Cade McNamara has been very efficient. He’s averaging 10 yards an attempt, and defenses are going to have to keep packing the box, so McNamara should have ample opportunity to throw into one-on-one matchups down the field.
As for Corum, he still should be able to pile up numbers. But the football renaissance in the state of Michigan has produced a new question? Who has the best back? Is it Corum, who has averaged 8.5 yards a carry? Or is it Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, who is averaging 8.7 yards a carry and has scored five TDs?
After the way last season went for both programs, this is a fun conversation to have.
• Alex Kirshner, FiveThirtyEight: The Case For Believing In Michigan Football
Michigan has played what looks like a light schedule, but it’s not that hard to look at it in the right light and see something decent. WMU beat Pitt, NIU beat a Georgia Tech team that is probably bad but almost beat Clemson, and Washington looked dysfunctional but has one of the more talented rosters in college football.
Whatever you think of this schedule, Michigan has pulverized it to an unusual extent. Forward-looking projection systems tend to believe, even if lots of humans aren’t there yet. Bill Connelly’s SP+ and ESPN’s FPI, two opponent-adjusted systems, each have Michigan No. 6 overall. In SP+, the Wolverines rank 12th on offense, eighth on defense and second on special teams. In the AP Top 25, Michigan is 19th, which is fair for now and may turn out to look low.
The Big Ten might be ripe for the picking, too, or at least more so than usual. The conference has a lot of interesting teams that weren’t at all interesting last year. Penn State looks like a serious contender. Iowa has a punishing defense, Michigan State seems to be getting back to some of its mid-2010s ways, and even Maryland and Rutgers are presently undefeated. But the league’s biggest hoss looks more vulnerable than usual. Ohio State is 37th in Defensive SP+ and has already taken play-calling responsibilities away from its defensive coordinator.
The Game is in Ann Arbor this year, and that combined with a slightly reduced OSU gives Michigan one of its best chances in a while. Predicting a Michigan win would be foolish, but for a rare change, so would be dismissing the possibility out of hand that the Wolverines give their much more successful rival a lot to handle.
• Bill Connelly, ESPN.com: College football bold predictions after three weeks bordering on chaos
Two Big Ten teams will make the CFP ... and Ohio State won't be one of them
Back in the early days of Jim Harbaugh's time at Michigan, his Wolverines wouldn't just beat overmatched opponents, they would make examples of them. They allowed 14 points in a five-game stretch of blowouts early in 2015. They humiliated Hawaii, Rutgers and Maryland by a combined 200-6 in 2016. They've still seen some blowout wins since, but the edge, the outright willingness to offend, was not quite the same.
On Saturday, we got the clearest impression yet that Harbaugh's 2021 Wolverines have regained their edge. That they blew out an outmanned Northern Illinois team wasn't in itself very telling; the lack of mercy they showed, however -- even while emptying the bench -- might have been. Up 28-3 late in the first half, Cade McNamara went deep to Cornelius Johnson for an 87-yard score. Running backs Blake Corum and blue-chipper Donovan Edwards scored on romps of 51 and 58 yards, respectively, in the third quarter. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on their first nine possessions, and after driving 72 yards for a field goal in the first quarter, NIU gained just 61 yards over its next eight drives. Final score: UM 63, NIU 10.
Michigan is 3-0 and has rocketed up to sixth in SP+. From a numbers perspective, the Wolverines have been unassailable. Corum and receiver A.J. Henning give them both versatility and genuine speed on the edge. Hassan Haskins remains a powerful option in the backfield, and Edwards (15 carries for 117 yards this year) might command more playing time soon. That McNamara went 8-for-11 passing for 191 yards on Saturday might have assuaged at least some of the "what happens when they actually have to pass?" concerns that swelled through two games, and Johnson's long touchdown dropped hints as to who will step forward in the receiving corps with leader Ronnie Bell out for the season.
For those who remain Michigan skeptics despite the strong start, that's fine. Sensible, even. With the disappointing ways the Wolverines' seasons have tended to end -- three losses in four games in 2016, three losses in a row in 2017, two in a row in 2018 and 2019, four in five games in 2020 -- they still face the burden of proof. They have a battery of tests ahead, too, with a Week 4 visit from 3-0 Rutgers and road trips to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska before Halloween. But they've looked the part so far. They're not alone.
• Darin Gardner, PFF: College Football Betting 2021: Best Week 4 spread picks
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -18.5 VS. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Projection: Michigan -21.7
Here’s something Wolverine fans have waited for years to read: Michigan’s offense has graded as one of the best in the country so far this season. Michigan blew out out its first three opponents 141-34 and has an offense that ranks fourth in overall grade, second in rushing grade and sixth in EPA per play. Two of the three games have come against MAC teams, but regardless this unit has really impressed early on in 2021.
The ground game has been the backbone of this team so far, and Michigan has enjoyed very good play from both the offensive line and the ball carriers in that regard. The Wolverines currently rank third in yards before contact per attempt, and individually running backs Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins currently rank second and 13th in the nation in rushing grade, respectively. The Wolverines have the third-highest rushing rate in the country as well and managed 47 points per game so far despite quarterback Cade McNamara throwing just 37 total pass attempts in three games.
On the other side of the ball, Rutgers quarterback Noah Vedral enters the game ranked 107th in passing grade out of 121 quarterbacks with 50 or more dropbacks — and he has the lowest average depth of target in the country. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 but rank just 105th in yards per play, despite a very soft schedule. Expect Michigan to keep it rolling in its first game of conference play.
The Wolverines won a 48-42 triple-overtime experiment against Rutgers last season, which was immediately branded the most mortifying victory in program history. Harbaugh eventually removed his defensive staff and vowed never to speak of it again. Speaking of unexpected returns, look at Greg Schiano, leading Rutgers to 3-0 for the first time since the school invented college football in 1869. I’m not sure if a team can exact revenge after beating someone, but Michigan surely will try. Pick: Michigan 34-17
You can argue that there's some skill involved when it comes to forcing turnovers. The numbers show that when it comes to fumbles, there's a lot of luck involved. Basically, any time the ball hits the turf, it's a coin flip which team will recover it. So, theoretically, the more fumbles you force, the more you'll recover, but coming into this week, Rutgers has forced six fumbles on defense and recovered each one. That's awesome, but it's also fortunate, and I just can't see Rutgers being able to do to Michigan what it's done to Temple, Syracuse and Delaware. The Wolverines have been one of the more impressive teams in the country so far this season and shouldn't have too much of a problem with Rutgers. Prediction: Michigan (-18.5)
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