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By the Numbers: Michigan's plan to stop Jalen Milroe

The Michigan offense is misunderstood. In an era of wide-open explosive passing offenses, Michigan's offense can be viewed as boring to most observers. The lack of explosive plays instead traded in for ultimate efficiency.

Led by a quarterback that is dynamic and refuses to give up on any play. The ability to extend and create while still managing the game. Less than average deep throw attempts, but best in the nation results. A quarterback who can do it all but is asked to do just enough. McCarthy doesn't throw many touchdowns because the offense can rely on the best short-yardage back in the nation once it gets inside the red zone. McCarthy also doesn't throw many interceptions, and the offense rarely turns the ball over.

The offense itself is not risk-adverse but calculated and risk-aware. It takes chances, but at the right time and without a wide range of outcomes. They are one of the best 4th down conversion teams in the country. There are not many trick plays, but they are often successful or the failures not as damaging. Possibly a lesson learned from the early 4th down call against TCU last season.

Most importantly, why this offense is a perfect match for the defense and special teams. A true team dynamic where all three phases take advantage of each other's strengths. A push-and-pull dynamic where the only desired outcome is winning games. This Michigan offense may be changing the way we look at what makes an offense great in modern college football.

Jim Harbaugh in 2021 in many ways returned to an ideology that may be considered old school. But he also furnished a community approach that allowed for fine tuning. He brought in young, energetic, and innovative coaches. Allowed each one to add value by implementing their strength and vision. A perfect balance of that old school football mentality and the new school knowledge from analytics.

Let's start with that balance of efficient offense and shutdown defense.

Michigan leads the nation in Net Points per Drive. Texas is the only other playoff team in the top 10.

Take how many points a team scores per drive in a game, subtract the points the defense gives up per drive, and that is your net. What jumps out right away is the Michigan defense giving up less than a point per drive. Michigan's defense does not let you score. More impressive, they also lead the nation in defensive points scored with 5 defensive touchdowns.

Still, the offense is slept on. While the defense is #1 by a wide margin, Michigan's offense ranks 5th in points per drive. This puts them in the neighborhood of Oregon, LSU, Georgia, the teams you typically think of when you think of the best offenses in the nation. Some will say the offense is so efficient because of the defense, and some will say the offense sets up the defense. In reality, it's both, which makes Michigan so good.

So you understand why it matters how elite Michigan is in Net Points Per Drive. In the last seasons, National Champions Georgia led the nation in NPPD. Alabama was 2nd in 2020, LSU was 4th in 2019, and Clemson was 2nd in 2018.

Alabama would have the lowest NPPD of any National Champion since 2007. Texas and Washington would be the lowest since Clemson won in 2016.

I saw someone say Michigan is just Iowa maxed out. At first, people may find that an insult, but it's not too far off. Imagine Iowa's defense but with one of the best offensive lines in the country, one of the most efficient quarterbacks, and the leading touchdown scorer at running back.

Let's deep dive into what that efficiency really means.

At 31 seconds per play, the only team in the nation that takes more time than Michigan is Air Force by .1 seconds. Michigan takes its time, and with the new clock rules that keep the clock moving on first downs, the Wolverines are running only 63 plays per game.

Yet, they have the widest scoring margin in the country at +27.2. Shutdown defense paired with an offense that scores at a ridiculous clip with low yardage output. Michigan gets 1 point for every 10.4 yards gained. As we've seen in Michigan's games against Ohio State, they simply do not care about winning the yardage battle.

The battles they win are big indicators of who wins or loses a football game. A big reason Michigan can score with low yardage is because of turnovers. As we said, Michigan's defense forces turnovers and scores. Michigan's offense does not turn the ball over, 4th fewest per game. That gives them a +1.3 turnover margin per game, trailing only Penn State at +1.5. Michigan is also the least penalized team in the country, so not a lot of free yards for their opponent.

Michigan has been viewed as a run-heavy team since Jim Harbaugh arrived, and more so in the last few seasons. Heading into 2023, there was talk of Michigan wanting to open things up more, be more explosive, and run close to a 50/50 run-and-pass split. What happened is Michigan has not been explosive and instead focused on efficiency. Still, the perception of their dedication to the run is that of being an outlier, yet they are very similar to Alabama in terms of split and output.

And despite the perception that MIchigan's run game is way down, their yards per game are higher than Alabama's on fewer carries. Michigan is playing a shorter game. More time off the clock, fewer plays, shorter fields, less yardage, and, most importantly, more points than their opponents at the widest margin in the country.

Are you surprised by this? Again, perceptions of these two teams' offenses, Michigan doesn't throw the ball, and Alabama can take the roof off. No one is saying this is the Alabama offense we are used to seeing in terms of scoring, but they are viewed as a big-play offense, arguably because that's all they have.

This is where Michigan's game plan truly comes together. While Bama and Michigan's passing stats are remarkably similar regarding usage, attempts, and output, how they get to these numbers is very different. In my By the Numbers piece on Jalen Milroe's matchup with the Michigan defense, we discussed this quite a bit.

By the Numbers: Michigan's plan to stop Jalen Milroe

Michigan completes 73.97% of its passes, while Alabama completes 62.23%. Michigan gets fewer yards per attempt, but it's more reliable. So where things get difficult for opposing offenses is you will get fewer plays. Between playing the nation's best defense and dealing with less time because of the second-slowest offense, your attempts and output are down. Fewer opportunities for big plays and more chances for turnovers. It's like falling into Michigan's trap.

With McCarthy, he does everything this offense needs and more. The term game manager can sometimes carry a negative connotation, but I don't think it should. I think of JJ as a game manager plus. He is accurate and completes a high percentage of his passes. He doesn't turn the ball over by avoiding mistakes. But he goes to another level with his ability to extend plays with his legs, whether scrambling or getting out of the pocket to make a throw. He also has the ability to make NFL throws, whether on difficult routes or in fitting the ball into a tight window.

Last season against TCU, Michigan did not play its game early and was forced into a shootout.

First, not getting points on the opening drive after a failed 4th down attempt inside the 5-yard line. Then, after forcing a three-and-out, McCarthy threw an interception that was taken back for a touchdown. Michigan followed up with a three-and-out of its own, followed by the defense giving up a 12-play 76-yard touchdown drive that finished with 3 short runs inside the 5-yard line.

TCU beat Michigan at its own game to start. Michigan's offense needs to do what it has been doing all season. Kicking the field goal or running with Corum on that 4th and goal. McCarthy not throwing an interception, but maybe leading a scoring drive thanks to short starting field position. In that scenario, Michigan is up 10 or 14 to 0.

College Football, sports in general, are entertainment. Fans are used to high-scoring shootouts in an era of explosive offenses and soft defenses. For some fans, what Michigan does may be boring, taking few risks on offense and preventing big plays on defense. The problem is thinking Michigan's offense is bad because it's not as fun for you to watch.

Michigan's offense is elite. Elite in nearly every category that affects what matters the most, scoring more points than your opponent.

They score more points per drive than anyone in the country. A Net Points per Drive metric that historically indicates they are in line with past National Champions. They are slow and methodical, but they maximize scoring opportunities while forcing mistakes while rarely making their own. Yes, they are still run-heavy, but again, the lower yardage is a mirage because of the rate at which they score. McCarthy is perfect for this offense, and Bama will try to match their efficiency with their explosive.

Michigan's offense has avoided mistakes against three of the five best defenses in the country, winning the turnover battle 5-0 in those games. Alabama's defense has players, but as a unit, they rank 19th, far below Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa. It's fair to expect Alabama to keep Michigan below season yardage averages, but better than Iowa did? Can they force enough turnovers to win the margin battle when the top three defenses couldn't get one? I say no.

Michigan's offense is elite, it won't take special tricks against Alabama. Michigan needs to show it learned from the mistakes against TCU, and just be Michigan.

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