Michigan’s first three games of the season were viewed as underwhelming wins. Last week’s victory against Bowling Green raised concerns after a difficult game from starting QB JJ McCarthy who had been the star of the first two games. Michigan faced Rutgers Saturday and after a surrendering a quick touchdown the Wolverines would dominate the rest of the way. Scoring 31 unanswered points through the air, ground, and on defense.

Michigan saw the return of Jim Harbaugh to sidelines and star defenders Will Johnson and Rod Moore to the secondary. The defense has been elite all season while the offense has been efficient but with limited possessions this season, not high scoring. That combination according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly makes Michigan the #1 team in the nation.

Connelly puts together the SP+ rankings for ESPN, and this week he has Michigan at the top. The rankings according to Connelly are meant to be a data based predictive measure, based on the most predictable elements of college football.

Connelly’s model ranks Michigan’s defense first in the country, by a pretty wide margin. The Wolverine offense ranks 13th. Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington round out the top 4.

Connelly’s model now gives Michigan a 28% chance to win the Big Ten compared to 24% for Ohio State. The Buckeyes actually slipped slightly after a close victory against Notre Dame.

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