ESPN's FPI Projections Expect Michigan To Drop 4 Games In 2020

ESPN recently released its Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2020 football season, and projects the Michigan Wolverines to only win eight games, pegging them to drop road contests at Washington and Ohio State and home affairs against Wisconsin and Penn State.

The outlet's FPI formula also tabs U-M as the No. 19 team in the country heading into 2020, and has placed generated percentages for the Wolverines to win each of their 12 regular-season games.

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The Huskies will be in a state of transition heading into this one, featuring a new head coach in Jimmy Lake and a new quarterback in likely starter Jacob Sirmon (former head coach Chris Petersen stepped down in December and 2019 starting quarterback Jacob Eason announced an early departure to the NFL). The trip to Seattle won't be easy for head coach Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines, however, seeing as how the Huskies own a 23-4 record at home since the start of the 2016 season.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 28

Projected win Percentage: 46.2%

Michigan's last meeting with Ball State was a memorable one (if you're a Cardinals fan), with the crew from Muncie, Ind., coming into Ann Arbor and giving a 9-0 and No. 2-ranked U-M squad all it could handle in 2006, before falling 34-26. Ball State has fallen on hard times since then, however, and hasn't experienced a winning season since 2013.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 109

Projected win Percentage: 94.8%

Harbaugh has had his way with non-conference opponents inside Michigan Stadium, holding a 13-0 record against them since he arrived in 2015. Arkansas State has been one of the Sun Belt's most consistent programs over the last decade, however, tallying winning seasons every year since 2011.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 102

Projected win Percentage: 94.3%

The home team has dominated the series in recent years, owning a 9-1 record since 2005 (the one road win during that span was when Wisconsin won at The Big House in 2010). The Badgers lose record-setting running back Jonathan Taylor early to the NFL, but redshirt sophomore Nakia Watson may be ready to emerge as the next great Wisconsin rusher, while ultra-efficient quarterback Jack Coan (69.6 completion percentage in 2019) returns for his senior year.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 4

Projected win Percentage: 27.3%

The home team has owned this series in recent years as well, with a 9-2 record since 2007 (the two exceptions during that span were when Michigan won at Happy Valley in 2015 and Penn State won in Ann Arbor in 2009). The Nittany Lions are losing star wideout K.J. Hamler early to the NFL, but still return a plethora of other offensive weapons in redshirt junior quarterback Sean Clifford, junior tight end Pat Freiermuth and junior wideout Jahan Dotson, while possessing one of the league's best backfields thanks to the presence of redshirt junior Journey Brown and sophomores Noah Cain and Devyn Ford.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 7

Projected win Percentage: 28.5%

Michigan has won three of the last four in the rivalry and its last two trips to East Lansing, after not having won there since 2007 prior to Harbaugh's arrival. The Spartans appear to be in a major transition phase with former head coach Mark Dantonio departing and Mel Tucker stepping in, with the latter being tasked with finding a new quarterback to replace Brian Lewerke as well as replacements for last season's top two pass catchers in Cody White and Darrell Stewart.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 67

Projected win Percentage: 78.2%

Trips to Minneapolis have been rare for Michigan as of late, with the program having only played there twice since the start of the 2009 season (victories in 2012 and 2015). The Gophers experienced a successful 11-2 breakthrough campaign under head coach P.J. Fleck in 2019, and return several of the offense's key cogs in redshirt junior quarterback Tanner Morgan, redshirt junior running back Mohamed Ibrahim and arguably the league's best wideout in junior Rashod Bateman.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 30

Projected win Percentage: 51.7%

Meetings between Big Ten West foe Purdue and Michigan have seldom occurred lately, with the two programs having met just once since the start of the 2013 season (a 28-10 U-M victory in West Lafayette in 2017). After a wildly successful debut season in 2017 for head coach Jeff Brohm that saw the Boilermakers go 7-6, the wheels have fallen off a bit with a 6-7 campaign in 2018 and a disappointing 4-8 season last year.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 47

Projected win Percentage: 79.4%

The Maize and Blue have made a living off of annihilating the Terrapins since Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor, going 5-0 during that span and winning by the following scores: 28-0 in 2015, 59-3 in 2016, 35-10 in 2017, 42-21 in 2018 and 38-7 in 2019. Second-year head coach Mike Locksley will have his work cut out for him once again in 2020 after a rough 3-9 debut, with his top two leading rushers in Javon Leake and Anthony McFarland both leaving early for the NFL.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 79

Projected win Percentage: 90.7%

Like the aforementioned Maryland series, U-M has owned this matchup since Harbaugh's arrival, outscoring the Scarlet Knights by a combined score of 256-37. Rutgers has been known for its lack of offensive threats in recent years (among other things), but first-year Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano will actually have two capable play makers to work with in 2020 in junior running back Isaih Pacheco and senior wideout Bo Melton.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 82

Projected win Percentage: 80.2%

Indiana has come incredibly close to beating Michigan several times over the last decade (a 42-35 loss in 2010, a double-overtime 48-41 setback in 2015, a 27-20 overtime defeat in 2017, etc.), but nonetheless has not been able to do so and remains winless against the Wolverines since 1987. Head coach Tom Allen's 2019 Hoosiers went 8-5 and were the best IU team the program had seen in decades, and return three of the offense's most important contributors in redshirt sophomore quarterback Michael Penix and senior wideouts Ty Fryfogle and Whop Philyor.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 23

Projected win Percentage: 62.4%

Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, and will attempt to do something in 2020 only one opposing club has done since the start of the 2016 season — win at The Horseshoe (Oklahoma won there in 2017). Ohio State returns junior Justin Fields at quarterback and brought in OU transfer Trey Sermon to help ease the loss of J.K. Dobbins at running back, but could be facing a bit of a rebuilding job on defense after co-defensive coordinator and turnaround extraordinaire Jeff Hafley (helped take OSU's defense from 71st nationally in 2018 to first in 2019) departed for Boston College.

Opponent FPI Rank: No. 2

Projected win Percentage: 8.3%

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