Michigan State was fortunate to beat Penn State last Saturday in Happy Valley and, despite its shortcomings, isn’t dead yet in the Big Ten East.
MSU is banged up on the offensive line, has one really good receiver and an inconsistent quarterback who can move, but not much more on offense. Its defense sells out to stop the run, placing it near the bottom in pass defense nationally (117th with 286.3 yards allowed per game) and middle of the pack in pass efficiency defense (55th).
And yet there’s still plenty of angst among Michigan fans that head coach Mark Dantonio will have his guys breathing fire and playing their best game against the Wolverines Saturday — probably because they always do.
MSU had no business beating the Nittany Lions. At the same time, the Spartans shouldn’t have lost at home to Northwestern, either. U-M is the more talented team, has Playoff aspirations and appears to be as focused as ever heading into Saturday’s game in East Lansing … and yet, as we’ve found out too many times, there are no guarantees.
Here’s what the Wolverines need to do to beat the Spartans:
Maintain gap integrity and rush lanes, and contain quarterback Brian Lewerke when he scrambles: Michigan State barely did anything offensively last year in a 14-10 victory in Ann Arbor, but the Spartans moved the ball enough early to jump out to a lead before the monsoon came (news flash: there’s a pretty good chance it’s going to rain again Saturday, so getting off to a good start is probably a good idea).
Lewerke threw for only 94 yards in last year’s game, but he scrambled for a 14-yard touchdown and kept other drives alive with his feet. Defensive coordinator Don Brown doesn’t generally like to spy the quarterback, so it’s up to the defensive linemen to make sure Lewerke is contained in the pocket and doesn’t escape to pick up huge chunks of yardage.
It wouldn’t stun, either, if MSU put the ball in Lewerke's hands more on designed run plays. He’s capable, and the Wolverines need to be wary of this threat.
Don’t let receiver Felton Davis beat them: The 6-4, 200-pound Davis is one of the Big Ten’s top receivers, as we saw last week when he dominated Penn State’s secondary with eight catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winner. He’s put up 474 yards and four touchdowns and averages 15.3 yards per catch on the year as the Spartans’ one true receiving threat, and Dantonio can be expected to frequently call his number the way he did Aaron Burbridge in the 2015 game.
Burbridge was MSU’s MVP that year, and when the Spartans couldn’t run the ball, they opted to try to negate Michigan’s advantage up front by attacking cornerback Jourdan Lewis with a number of quick deep balls to Burbridge. Many of them worked, and that — along with the flukiest play in the history of the rivalry, a dropped punt snap that led to the winning touchdown — doomed U-M.
Expect plenty of Davis Saturday in man coverage. Safeties coach Chris Partridge said he didn’t expect defensive coordinator Don Brown to give Davis added attention, so whoever is covering him needs to be on his toes.
Expect the unexpected: There’s been a play in each of the last several Michigan State wins that catches the Wolverines off guard. Two years ago, it was a leak out to the fullback for a long touchdown after U-M had grabbed control of the contest. Last year, it was a screen pass to an area of the field in which there were several white jerseys, no blue.
U-M can’t “chase ghosts,” as Partridge put it Wednesday, but the Wolverines have to be ready for anything and everything. They should treat each kick as though it’s going to be a fake — Dantonio plays as though he has nothing to lose there, because he’s rarely criticized when it doesn’t work — and rely on their technique and their eyes when they see things they haven’t seen before.
We know it’s coming.
The Breakdown: Michigan has better players on both sides of the ball and seems to be peaking, but Dantonio is 10-0 against the spread in the last 10 meetings with U-M for a reason. This is a guy who has gone on record as saying he’d rather see Ohio State beat Michigan, even if it meant keeping his team from a championship. So yeah … the hatred runs deep.
The Wolverines haven’t been able to match that intensity over the last several years, and it’s time that changed. There’s a great opportunity Saturday, Harbaugh said — and it’s well past time U-M seized it and took back a rivalry it should own.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 23, Michigan State 17
Michigan is the better football team at almost every position, has a quarterback this year, is playing good football … and still won’t win Saturday if it doesn’t figure out how to match the intensity of a program that feeds off unbridled hatred for its rival. Expect another tight one in East Lansing.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 27, Michigan State 17
Michigan takes the fistfight to the brass knuckles boys.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 31, Michigan State 17
Michigan is better talent wise, but that’s almost always the case with Michigan State, and we know how that’s played out recently. The Wolverines are rolling right now though and will do so again on Saturday.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Michigan State 21, Michigan 17
There is no reason Michigan should lose this game — the narrative that it can’t win big games on the road has gotten incredibly old, but until it actually does …
TheWolverine.com Writer Andrew Hussey: Michigan 24, Michigan State 10
The Wolverines have the far superior team to the Spartans. Michigan’s defense won’t let Michigan State get going, and Shea Patterson and U-M’s offense rolls.
TheWolverine.com columnist Drew Hallett: Michigan 20, Michigan State 14
The Spartans will be prepared, ready to upset a top-10 team in back-to-back weeks, but Michigan's top-ranked defense will be the reason U-M wins this low-scoring duel.
TheWolverine.com Contributor Adam Ghabour: Michigan 31, MSU 17
Donovan Peoples-Jones catches a touchdown pass.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 24, Michigan State 21
Michigan State knows how to play this rivalry football game, and Michigan has not shown the ability to match the violence of the Spartans. But this year, the Wolverines find a way to come up with three more points.
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