With conference tournaments wrapping up across the country over the next week, Michigan Hockey's path to the NCAA tournament has gotten smaller.

With a handful of days until the field is set in stone, 12 teams are locks to make the tournament, whether they win their tournament or qualify as an at-large. With the remaining automatic qualifier bids available from winning a conference tournament, Michigan is out if any of the teams currently outside the top 16 win their tournament.

Using Pairwise rankings and probability, let's take a look at how the field currently shakes out.

After missing the tournament in the 2020-21 season due to positive Covid cases on the team, Michigan has made three straight Frozen Fours. If they miss the tournament this year it would be the first time under head coach Brandon Naurato.

Michigan is currently ranked 14th with a 27% chance to make the tournament. What Michigan needs to worry about is a team currently on the outside of the top 16 earning an automatic qualifier and taking their spot.

Currently, 12 Quinnipiac, 13 Penn State, and 14 Michigan are on the bubble, while 16 Arizona State, 18 North Dakota, 19 Cornell, 20 Clarkson, 22 Dartmouth, and 23 Northeastern could make the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament.

15 Minnesota State has already earned an automatic qualifier bid in the CCHA because they play St. Thomas who is not yet eligible for the tournament.

That drops Michigan down to the 15th team.

24 Bentley and 25 Holy Cross will face each other in the AHC final, with the winner earning an automatic qualifier spot in the tournament, so that's at least one team that will jump Michigan.

That drops Michigan down to the 16th and last teams in the tournament.

Among the bubble teams, only Quinnipiac controls its own destiny, as they are still playing in the ECAC tournament. It takes on 19 Cornell in one semifinal, while 20 Clarkson takes on 22 Dartmouth in the other. Michigan will be rooting hard for Quinnipiac, who will be given a 50% chance to make the field as an at-large if they lose, meaning the Wolverines won't jump them. Quinnipiac likely only misses the field if two unexpected teams win their conference tournament.

Any of the other teams winning would jump Michigan with an automatic qualifier. Pairwise gives Cornell a 17% chance, Clarkson 22%, and Dartmouth 20%.

In the Big Ten, 2 Michigan State will play 10 Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship on March 22. Both teams will make the tournament regardless, and the Spartans are likely the No. 1 seed if they win. 4 Minnesota lost but will make the NCAA tournament.

13 Penn State has an 85% chance to make the tournament and will only miss if three unexpected teams win their conference.

1 Boston College is no longer playing, but they are locked to be the top seed or No. 2 behind MSU.

3 Maine, 6 Boston, 7 UConn, and 23 Northeastern are still playing in the Hockey East tournament. The top 3 teams are in the field regardless, so Michigan needs Northeastern to either lose to Maine in the semifinal or in the final. Pairwise gives Northeastern a 7% chance of winning.

In the NCHC Tournament, 5 Western Michigan will play 18 North Dakota in one semifinal while 16 Arizona State will play 9 Denver in the other. Western Michigan and Denver are locks to make the tournament, so that will be Michigan's rooting interest. North Dakota with a 12% or Arizona State with a 18% would jump Michigan as an automatic qualifier if they were to win the tournament.

So, Michigan fans, who should you be rooting for the rest of the week?

Quinnipiac to win the ECAC tournament.

Any one but Northeastern to win the Hockey East Tournament.

Western Michigan or Denver to win the NCHC Tournament.

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