Michigan enters the third game of its three-game, midseason “gauntlet” at 5-0 in the Big Ten, having disposed of Wisconsin and Michigan State with relative ease.
Like the Badgers and Spartans, Penn State (Saturday’s opponent in Ann Arbor) isn’t the team many predicted it would be in the preseason. The Nittany Lions have improved since nearly losing to Appalachian State in the season opener, but the they lost at home to a banged-up Michigan State team, should have gotten beat by Iowa last weekend and aren’t the same team without running back Saquon Barkley.
Frankly, nobody should have expected them to be. Barkley was a once-in-a-decade talent, and while running back Miles Sanders is solid, he’s not Barkley.
PSU still has dynamic quarterback Trace McSorley, and he’s a threat (even if he is completing only 52.8 percent of his passes this year). He’s become more adept with his feet, and yes, that makes him a dual threat. They also have what Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh calls the best defensive line the Wolverines will have faced this year, though the Nittany Lions are 69th nationally in rush defense, allowing 161.4 yards per game.
Here’s what the Wolverines need to do to beat Penn State:
Maintain gap integrity and rush lanes, and contain quarterback Trace McSorley in the run game: This was one of the keys against Michigan State, as well, and the Michigan defense was up to task. Spartan QB Brian Lewerke’s long run was three yards, and he finished with a negative-11 total.
McSorley hurt his knee against Iowa last week, but he returned and ripped off a 51-yard touchdown on a designed run. It’s not just read-option he’ll beat you with or scrambles, though. He ran for over 100 yards against Ohio State on designed runs and draws on which he simply followed a blocker and picked up chunks of yardage.
U-M needs to remain disciplined and not over-pursue like they did at times last year (including on Barkley’s first big touchdown run). It remains to be seen how mobile McSorley is, but be certain — they’re going to try to use him as a weapon in the run game.
Bring all the “tools” on defense: Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown said Wednesday the Penn State game was one of his biggest regrets from last year. He felt his guys weren’t adequately prepared, and part of it was because he didn’t put more “tools in the toolbox” to counter what PSU was doing on offense.
McSorley picked on U-M’s safeties (especially) in coverage, and while some of the throws were on the money to receivers with only a step on the defenders, that’s been a point of emphasis this year. The Wolverines have adjusted well, and Brown will need to have a plan for shifty slot receiver K.J. Hamler, especially. Hamler has made 27 grabs for 497 yards and five touchdowns through the season's first eight games.
Penn State isn’t nearly as explosive on offense as it was a year ago, but the Nittany Lions will try some of what worked last year. Bank on it. But also bank on Brown being better prepared with his adjustments.
Win the early downs on both sides of the ball: A couple of the stats that stand out the most heading into this game — Michigan is 11th in third-down percentage, converting 47.8 percent of the time, while the Penn State offense ranks a dismal 102nd (35.8 percent). U-M is ninth nationally in opponent third down percentage (28.7 percent converted), while PSU is a respectable 29th (33.1).
Advantage (on paper) to Michigan, but especially if the Wolverines can force some third-and-longs and get into some third-and-shorts on offense to keep the Nittany Lions off balance and guessing defensively. Penn State is 66th nationally in passing defense (225.4 yards surrendered per game), but only gives up 5.55 yards per attempt, which is tied for fifth nationally.
Avoid big plays and force McSorley to throw on third down, and the Wolverines should be able to control this game defensively.
The Breakdown: Of all the games on the Wolverines’ 2018 Revenge Tour, this one might be second only to Michigan State when it comes to motivation factor. The Nittany Lions were hurrying and trying to score once more a year ago when they were already up 42-13, laughing and high-fiving on the sidelines, and the Michigan players remember. Brown made sure they did, bringing out the film last week to remind them.
PSU is a solid football team on both sides of the ball, and McSorley is one of the Big Ten’s most dangerous quarterbacks. This will be a test, but Michigan’s defense is the best the Nittany Lions will have seen so far, and the Wolverines appear to be on a mission.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 30, Penn State 14
A gimpy Trace McSorley against a Michigan defense frothing at the mouth isn’t a good combination for the Nittany Lions. PSU will have a tough time moving the ball on the Wolverines, and the offense will continue to improve.
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 27, Penn State 13
The Revenge Tour rolls on, without a Trace of doubt.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 27, Penn State 13
Don Brown and several Michigan players have been talking about how bad they want this one after what happened at Penn State last year. The Revenge Tour continues…
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Michigan 28, Penn State 17
It will be tightly contested throughout, but Michigan will pull away in the fourth quarter and continue to cement itself as one of the best teams in the country.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Andrew Hussey: Michigan 24, Penn State 14
Michigan’s offense has found another level and with Trace McSorley coming off an injury, Michigan’s defense will be too much for Penn State to handle.
TheWolverine.com Columnist Drew Hallett: Michigan 28, Penn State 17
Karan Higdon dashes through and around PSU's defense in an unforgettable performance as Michigan has another successful stop on its Revenge Tour.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Adam Ghabour: Michigan 34, Penn State 17
Donovan Peoples-Jones scores again.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 31, Penn State 14
Red-letter game three of five will have this team seeing red by kickoff. Look for Michigan to pick up where it left off in East Lansing.
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