Published Oct 18, 2018
Michigan Wolverines Football: Previewing MSU With A Spartan Insider
Austin Fox  •  Maize&BlueReview
Staff Writer
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Matt Charboneau of The Detroit News dropped by to help us break down Michigan State, and explained what the Wolverines can expect to see Saturday in East Lansing:

Projected Starters on Offense

• QB Brian Lewerke (redshirt junior) — After posting a 20-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season, he has followed it up by tossing seven picks through the team's first six games (to go along with eight touchdowns). Granted, his 264.5 passing yards per outing are impressive, but it's clear Lewerke is not playing at the same level he did in 2017.

• RB Connor Heyward (sophomore) — He has assumed the starting role in the wake of senior running back L.J. Scott's injury, and has racked up 191 yards and three touchdowns on 50 carries. The sophomore, however, is only tallying 3.8 yards per touch and has failed to eclipse 48 yards in a game this season.

• WR Felton Davis (senior) — He has consistently been one of the best wideouts in the Big Ten in 2018 with 31 catches for 474 yards and four scores. Davis has the potential to be a mismatch problem for defenses at 6-4, 200 pounds, and has reeled in at least three grabs and a minimum of 64 yards in every contest.

• WR Brandon Sowards (fifth-year senior) — Injuries to sophomore Cody White, redshirt junior Darrell Stewart and redshirt sophomore Cam Chambers have thrust Sowards into a starting role the last two weeks, despite the fact he has just nine catches for 121 yards on the year. White will miss Saturday's game with a broken hand, Stewart is questionable and Chambers exited last week's Penn State tilt with injury but returned with his hand heavily wrapped. Expect Sowards to start once again if either of those latter two aren't able to go.

• TE Matt Sokol (fifth-year senior) — At 6-6, 260, he is much more of a blocker than a pass catcher, hauling in just four grabs for 45 yards on the year. Though Sokol has started the team's last four outings, sophomore Matt Dotson is actually MSU's leading pass catcher at tight end (five catches for 52 yards and a score).

• TE Chase Gianacakos (fifth-year senior) — Despite playing 101 snaps this season, the fifth-year senior has yet to haul in a pass — he's never caught one in his entire career. At 6-6, 296 pounds, Gianacakos is basically a sixth offensive linemen head coach Mark Dantonio likes to use from time to time.

• LT Cole Chewins (redshirt junior) — He has been banged up consistently throughout this year, but started for the first time since the season opener last week and played 88 snaps (his previous high had been 50). His pass blocking ability is crucial to MSU's offensive line — Pro Football Focus (PFF) has graded him as a 71.6 or higher (64 is considered average) in two of the three contests he's played at least 21 snaps in.

• LG Tyler Higby (redshirt junior) — He has started every showdown this year, albeit at three different spots — three at left tackle, two at center and one at left guard. Like Chewins, Higby is a much better pass blocker than run blocker, with PFF grading him out over the last two weeks at 69.6 and a 72.7, respectively, in that department.

• C Matt Allen (redshirt sophomore) — After coming off the bench for the first two clashes of 2018, Allen has started the last four at center and has played at least 70 snaps in each. His play has been below average, though, evidenced by his overall 61 grade from PFF.

• RG Blake Bueter (redshirt freshman) — He has begun the last two games at left guard and right guard, respectively, after tallying just 18.7 snaps through MSU's first four contests. Bueter's play has been subpar, though, and has contributed to the Spartans' rushing struggles, with PFF tagging him with just a 54.1 overall grade.

• RT Jordan Reid (sophomore) — The sophomore has been the only Michigan State lineman who has started all six games at the same spot, beginning each contest at right tackle. Like both Chewins and Higby, Reid is a much better pass blocker than run blocker, grading out as a 72.5 by PFF in the former and a 59.1 in the latter.

Projected Starters on Defense

• DE Kenny Willekes (redshirt junior) — He is one of the best players in MSU's outstanding front seven, already totaling nine tackles for loss this season (fifth most in the league), after compiling 14.5 in 2017. Willekes has also gotten to opposing quarterbacks at a high level, checking in third in the Big Ten with five sacks.

• DT Mike Panasiuk (junior) — The veteran has racked up three tackles for loss through six outings, and although the statistics may not be all that enticing, he is the anchor of the MSU defensive line. PFF has labeled him with an overall grade of 77.6 this season, including a 78.4 mark against the run.

• DT Raequan Williams (redshirt junior) — His six tackles for loss are the second most on the team, only trailing Willekes' nine. The Chicago native has received high praise from PFF in 2018, achieving an 81.6 overall grade and a 91.5 against the run.

• DE Jacub Panasiuk (sophomore) — The lone youngster among the starters in the front seven, Panasiuk has tallied eight tackles and 1.5 stops for loss through five games. He is subbed out more than the other starting defensive linemen, however (averaging 30.8 snaps per contest), with redshirt freshman Jack Camper also seeing plenty of snaps at the spot (tallying an identical 30.8 snaps over his last five contests).

• LB Joe Bachie (junior) — He is the leader of the linebacking unit, acculating 43 tackles (leads the team) and 3.5 stops for loss so far. Bachie's tackling numbers have dipped in the last three outings, however — after averaging 10 through the first three clashes of 2018, he has recorded just 4.3 per tilt over the last three.

• LB Andrew Dowell (senior) — His 41 tackles are the third most on the roster, while his four stops for loss also rank third. PFF has tagged him with an impressive overall grade of 80 through the first six showdowns.

• LB Tyriq Thompson (redshirt junior) — Although he is a redshirt junior, Thompson is actually one of the most inexperienced starters on Michigan State's defense, having played just 153 career snaps prior to this year. He has accumulated just 11 tackles through five games and no stops behind the line of scrimmage.

• CB Justin Layne (junior) — MSU's secondary has had major issues in 2018 (118th nationally, yielding 286.3 yards per game), but Layne has not been part of the problem. His 42 tackles are the second most on the squad, and he has earned a 70.9 mark from PFF in pass coverage.

• CB Tre Person (sophomore) — Expected starting cornerback Josiah Scott was injured in fall camp and hasn't played this year, while an injury to his replacement, redshirt junior Josh Butler, has thrust Person into a starting role. At 5-10, 165 pounds, the youngster has held his own and has helped the team surrender an average of just 187 passing yards in the two contests he has started (Central Michigan and Penn State).

• S David Dowell (redshirt junior) — He has racked up 28 tackles and an interception this season, after registering five picks last year en route to first-team All-Big Ten honors by the media. Dowell has been subpar in pass coverage in 2018, though, evidenced by his 63.8 overall grade from PFF.

• S Khari Willis (senior) — His two interceptions are the most on the roster, and his 36 tackles are the fourth highest. Willis has also broken up five passes from his safety spot and has earned an outstanding mark of 83.2 from PFF.

Projected Starters on Special Teams:

• K Matt Coghlin (redshirt sophomore) — He has been perfect in both extra points and field goals this season, making all 17 of the former and all eight of the latter. Coghlin has a 49-yard field goal on his resume, but his seven other makes have all come from within 40 yards.

• P Tyler Hunt (redshirt freshman) — With the season-ending injury to fifth-year senior Jake Hartbarger, Hunt has assumed the role of the team's primary punter but has struggled. He has punted 25 times for a 39.4 average, while pinning 11 of them inside the opponent's 20-yard line.

Matt Charboneau of The Detroit News on the Biggest Strength on Offense

"When Lewerke has had time, he’s typically looking for Davis, the obvious strength of this offense," said Matt Charboneau of The Detroit News. "In fact, the receivers as a whole were the strength until White was lost to a broken hand and Stewart slowed by an ankle injury.

"Even short-handed, though, Davis has thrived with four touchdowns in the last two games, including the winner last week at Penn State."

Davis will be, without a doubt, the focal point of Michigan's secondary.

Junior cornerbacks Lavert Hill and David Long, and fifth-year senior cornerback Brandon Watson haven't seen a wideout of his caliber yet this year, and slowing him down will be vital.

With White out, Davis is the only Spartan receiver who has more than 142 yards on the whole team. Freshman wideout Jalen Nailor is the only other healthy MSU wideout who has caught a score this season.

It's safe to assume the U-M defensive backs will be up to the task, though — the most passing yards they have allowed in a contest was 209 to SMU on Sept. 15, and they have also limited three opponents (Western Michigan, Nebraska and Maryland) to 93 yards or fewer.

Biggest Weakness on Offense

"The offensive line," the analyst confirmed. "Some of that unit’s struggles are because of injuries. Both starting guards — [fifth-year senior] David Beedle and [sophomore] Kevin Jarvis — have been out and will likely miss this game.

"Chewins has also been in and out, and played an entire game for the first time last week, while the rest of the unit has been a juggling act. It has resulted in little success running the ball and has put pressure on Lewerke."

The lack of effectiveness on the ground for MSU has been startling. It ranks 115th in rushing yards per game (123), and has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or fewer in every outing, including a 2.3-yard per rush showing in the loss at Arizona State.

Granted, senior running back L.J. Scott's injury hasn't helped matters, but he was only tallying 3.4 yards per touch on 30 carries before he got hurt.

In fact, freshman La'Darius Jefferson's 3.9 yards per tote is the best mark of the Spartans' top three rushers.

Michigan's rush defense, meanwhile, ranks as the 15th best in the country, yielding 108.8 yards per outing. They have also held four different opponents to 3.1 yards per rush or fewer in 2018.

Junior defensive end Rashan Gary has sat out the last two games with injury and is questionable once again on Saturday, but the unit hasn't missed a beat in his absence.

Biggest Strength on Defense

"The strength of this group is clearly up front, which is obvious considering how good they’ve been against the run," Charboneau noted. "Williams and Mike Panasiuk are as good as it gets, while Bachie is one of the most consistent players in the Big Ten.

"There’s also been a jump this season on the edge as Willekes has been a difference-maker rushing the passer, while Andrew Dowell and [redshirt sophomore linebacker] Brandon Bouyer-Randle have stood out."

MSU's front seven is actually the best in college football against the run, surrendering only 62.3 yards per outing. Perhaps even more impressively, they are allowing opposing rushing attacks to average just 2.3 yards per carry, which is also the best in the nation.

One of the biggest reasons the group is so effective is because it's made up almost entirely of veterans, starting a senior, three redshirt juniors and two juniors..

Penn State racked up 205 yards on the ground against them last week, but no team had accumulated more than 63 prior to that.

Biggest Weakness on Defense

"The weakness is clearly in the back end, though the numbers make it seem even worse," the expert said. "The Spartans are giving up their share of yards but have done well to limit big plays and contained [Penn State fifth-year senior quarterback] Trace McSorley last week.

"The safeties are okay, and Layne has been very good at times, but with [expected starting cornerback Josiah] Scott out, the Spartans are limited on one side of the field."

Scott's injury was a huge blow to the unit — he was named a Freshman All-American by ESPN last year in his debut campaign.

Utah State, Arizona State and Northwestern all tore up the Spartan secondary, with all three programs throwing for at least 319 yards.

MSU has also been yielding scores through the air at a high rate, surrendering eight in its last four clashes.

Michigan's passing attack, meanwhile, continues to improve, thanks in large part to junior quarterback Shea Patterson (69 completion percentage and a 10-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio).

He suffered a cut on his left hand during Saturday's win over Wisconsin and was spotted with a huge wrap on it Tuesday night, but it isn't expected to hinder his performance this weekend.

Charboneau's Final Score Prediction

"I’m picking Michigan to win, 20-17. Both defenses are good, and that usually means a blowout either way doesn’t seem likely. So, in a close game, I still don’t have enough confidence in the Michigan State offense.

"The Spartans got it done last week at Penn State, but there are still far too many empty possessions, something the Wolverines will likely take advantage of on Saturday."

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