College football's marquee matchup this week features the 16th-ranked Michigan Wolverines (5-1, 3-1) and the seventh-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0, 3-0). This game could have a lot to say in deciding who will be the Big Ten east division champion come December. Both teams play undefeated Ohio State in November, and the winner of this week's game will have a good chance of playing the Buckeyes in what would be a de facto division title game.
Needless to say, there's big implications on the primetime game that PSU decided will be its annual "white out" game of the year. We examine how U-M and PSU match up based on various analytics and look at what matchups to focus on when the Wolverines and the Nittany Lions do battle in Happy Valley.
Comparison: ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI)
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Michigan: 15th nationally with a 15.0 FPI score
Penn State: 8th nationally with a 22.9 FPI score
The Nittany Lions edge out the Wolverines in FPI and in on both sides of the ball, according to ESPN Team Efficiency scores.
Michigan
Overall: 38th in team efficiency with a score of 66.1
Offense: 73rd in offensive efficiency with a score of 47.6
Defense: 18th in defensive efficiency with a score of 78.5
Penn State
Overall: 7th in team efficiency with a score of 88.1
Offense: 8th in offensive efficiency with a score of 80.5
Defense: 14th in defensive efficiency with a score of 80.9
Analysis: PSU is certainly the stronger and more efficient team according to these measurements. The strength on strength matchup will be the PSU offense going against the U-M defense.
U-M's offense has been plagued by turnovers and mistakes through six games and if that doesn't change against a very good PSU defense, it won't score many points Saturday night.
Comparison: Football Outsiders' SP+ Rankings
SP+ Rankings are compiled based on what Football Outsiders' Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives; a fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.
Here's how the two teams stack up:
Michigan: Ranked 13th with a SP+ score of 18.8
Penn State: Ranked 6th with a score of 24.4
