Staff Predictions: Michigan Wolverines Football vs. Wisconsin
“They’re what we used to be.”
That’s how one former Michigan All-Big Ten selection described Wisconsin during the Rich Rodriguez era, and it was hard to argue … especially when the Badgers were running the ball down U-M’s throat 136 straight times in the second half of one of those games (we’ve blocked 2008-10 out of our memories).
The Wolverines, however, are starting to get back to their roots. The offensive line still isn’t what it’s been, but the defense is nasty, and they finally have great quarterback play and future NFL receivers.
U-M is a 10-point favorite Saturday, and while that seems high, it also seems like that’s how it’s supposed to be when these two programs are at their peak … and Michigan is still building under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
And to be fair, this isn’t typical Wisconsin. The Badgers are vulnerable on defense, especially, and teams are running on them … even Nebraska (!).
This is a game U-M should win, and had better win. At the same time, Wisconsin is a program with a lot of pride that can still control clock if it runs the ball like it wants to … and you can be damn sure they’re going to try.
Congratulations to last week’s staff picks winners (there were three. Alvin Fox wasn’t one of them (again), and has been asked to return the key to the city of Westphalia).
This week’s winner gets … the key to Westphalia, and a year’s supply of Wisconsin cheddar.
The picks:
Chris Balas:This was supposed to be the start of the gauntlet for Michigan, and it still might be. There are no guarantees, though, this week or next, even though the Wolverines are solid favorites in both.
It’s time to elevate this program where it should be, and it starts today. Michigan 23, Wisconsin 16
John Borton: They’ve played the Big Ten Championship Game seven times at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium, and Wisconsin has been there five of them — thanks in no small measure to a West Division featuring more holes than Swiss cheese. The Badgers will probably be there again.
On Saturday, Michigan desires a precursor to what it desperately hopes will be a rematch. The Wolverines win Round One, but not without a fight. Michigan 27, Wisconsin 20
Alvin (formerly Austin) Fox: Michigan’s task of proving it’s still a legit Big Ten title contender begins on Saturday night. This is not a typical dominant Wisconsin defense we’ve been accustomed to seeing, so Shea Patterson and the rest of the offense should be able to move the ball on them with some success. Michigan grinds out a close one under the lights, and Doug Skene finally starts sipping the Kool-Aid. Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Andrew Hussey:Michigan’s offense under Shea Patterson has been trending up all season long and that continues against an injured Wisconsin defense. Jim Harbaugh’s team knows how big of a victory this is and is prepared to defeat the Badgers. This isn’t as good of a Wisconsin team as recent years and Michigan has played well since losing to Notre Dame. Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17
Doug Skene: The three-week red letter game stretch will begin with a narrow win over Wiscy. Michigan 24, Wisconsin 20
Drew Hallett: This is not the terrifying Wisconsin defense of yesteryear. The Badgers are 55th in Defensive S&P+, can be exploited on the ground or through the air and have a nearly nonexistent pass rush (115th in adj. sack rate). Even if Karan Higdon can't get into a groove, Michigan's offensive line (29th in adj. sack rate) should give Shea Patterson sufficient time to connect with open receivers running through a depleted Badgers secondary. The Wolverines will move the ball well until they near the red zone, which is about when UW's defense tends to buckle down. U-M's offense, which has had issues executing when the field compresses, will then sputter occasionally, leading to four field goals by Quinn Nordin.
Wisconsin, which is 8th in Offensive S&P+, has the scoring power to stick with Michigan, but the Badgers' biggest issue is that what they do best (3rd in rushing efficiency) is what the Wolverines defend best (6th in rushing efficiency).
Presuming U-M has enough healthy bodies on the defensive line, the Wolverines have the ability to slow down Jonathan Taylor and force Alex Hornibrook to win it with his arm, which is the correct strategy. Plus, with all of the questions about whether Michigan can beat a quality opponent, U-M will sprint out of the tunnel under the lights frothing at the mouth, ready to show the world they can. Michigan 26, Wisconsin 14
---
• Talk about this article inside The Fort
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @BSB_Wolverine, @JB_ Wolverine, @AustinFox42, @Balas_Wolverine, @DrewCHallett and @Qb9Adam.
• Like us on Facebook