With the Big Ten Media Days just a few weeks away, the start of the college football season is right around the corner.
Here’s what is being said about Michigan in the beginning of July:
If ... Josh Gattis brings some pep and unpredictability to Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh hired offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from Alabama to clean off the rust and ossification that had beset the Michigan attack at times. The Wolverines were both predictable (22nd in standard downs run rate) and plodding (123rd in adjusted pace). And despite their run-heavy approach, the Wolverines couldn't actually run the ball all that well. They were 84th in rushing marginal efficiency, and in three losses Michigan backs averaged just 3.8 yards per carry.
If ... Shea Patterson finds a No. 1 receiver. Patterson's full-season numbers were decent (65 percent completion rate, 12.4 yards per completion, 82.0 QBR), but that's mostly because he torched lesser opponents. In games against more evenly matched opponents, the passing game was harmless.
Against five opponents that finished the year ranked, Patterson still completed 62 percent of his throws, but at just 11.3 yards per completion. It was 10.3 in three losses. Donovan Peoples-Jones averaged 18.4 yards per catch against unranked foes and 8.7 against ranked. Be it Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, a finally healthy Tarik Black, or someone else, the Wolverines need a playmaker against the teams with the strongest pulse.
If ... blitz downs are a bit less all-or-nothing. Don Brown's defense was again mostly dominant in 2018, ranking ninth in Def. S&P+. UM has been in the top 10 in all three of his seasons in Ann Arbor. But while his attack usually worked, it failed at key times. On blitz downs (which I define as second-and-super-long and third-or-fourth-and-5 or more), Michigan ranked a solid 15th in success rate and fifth in sack rate. But the Wolverines also gave up 20-plus yards on 8.5 of blitz downs, 69th overall. Florida enjoyed gains of 53, 30 and 28 on blitz downs, and Ohio State enjoyed big gains on both blitz downs and regular downs.
• Tom Fornelli of CBSSports.com says that Michigan will win 9.5 games next season.
“I'm high on Michigan heading into the 2019 season,” Fornelli writes. “So high that friends and colleagues have begun joking about me getting a Michigan tattoo soon. But do I like the value on taking the over 9.5 here? Actually, yes. I'm not thrilled at the idea of paying -168 here, but I don't see this Michigan team losing three games during the regular season unless it suffers a ton of attrition at crucial spots. In my opinion, even if Michigan isn't the most talented team in the Big Ten (that's still Ohio State), it enters the 2019 season with fewer question marks than any other team in the conference. Take this over. I'm confident Michigan will have already reached 10 wins before it faces Ohio State to end the regular season.”
• ESPN’s Chris Lowe ranks Michigan’s nonconference as the No. 7 hardest in the nation.
“Had all three of Michigan's nonconference games not been at home in the Big House, the Wolverines could have easily made a case to be even higher on this list,” Lowe writes. “All three of their opponents played in the postseason a year ago, and who wants any part of Jeff Monken's Army squad and that flexbone offense? Michigan will close out October by facing Notre Dame a week after playing at Penn State.”
• Isiah Hole of Wolverines Wire gives some summer notes.
“FIVE-STAR SAFETY DAXTON HILL IS AS ADVERTISED.
I’m told that the most anticipated member of the 2019 class has arrived and is looking the part of what was envisioned of him as the nation’s top safety. He is moving around a little, playing at various spots to maximize his dynamic athleticism, even getting some time at nickelback (I’m told he’s the third nickelback as of current).
Obviously, there’s a long way to go until fall camp, and going through the paces there, but this is a good sign that Hill could be an early contributor.
MIKE SAINRISTIL HAS PICKED UP WHERE HE LEFT OFF.
The early-enrollee true freshman and former three-star surprised many when he established himself as a spring starter. Granted, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins didn’t participate, but the dynamic athlete cemented himself as a likely early contributor this year by virtue of his spring performance.
I’m told that he’s continued to make the most of his situation, and has continued to embody the ‘speed in space’ of it all, making plays in the 7v7 format and looking the part of a big-time playmaker.
---
• Talk about this article inside The Fort
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @BSB_Wolverine, @JB_ Wolverine, @AustinFox42, @Balas_Wolverine and @DrewCHallett
• Like us on Facebook
