Where the Computers Rank Michigan Football, Week 10
Michigan football is in the middle of an odd week for an 8-0 team.
The season couldn't be going any better on the field for the Wolverines, but the aftermath of Michigan State's assault in the tunnel overshadows last week's victory. Not to mention, the College Football Playoff Rankings debuted this week and left the Wolverines at No. 5, despite both human polls agreeing on U-M at 4th.
Various rankings come out each week, including the AP & Coaches Polls.
In this weekly segment, we'll get away from human polls, go into the computers, and see what the various analytical-based rankings had to say about U-M each week.
With a road trip to Rutgers on the clock, here's where the computers rank Michigan ahead of Week 10 in college football.
ESPN FPI
What is FPI?
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Rank: 4th
Previously: 4th
Top 5: Ohio State (1st), Alabama (2nd), Georgia (3rd), Michigan (4th), Tennesse (5th) Texas (6th)
Michigan has wins against: Penn State (10th)
Michigan will play: Ohio State (1st), Illinois (22nd)
ESPN SP+
What is ESPN SP+?
In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Rank: 4th
Previously: 4th
Top 5: Ohio State (1st), Georgia (2nd), Alabama (3rd), Michigan (4th), Tennesse (5th)
Michigan has wins against: Penn State (15th)
Michigan will play: Ohio State (1st), Illinois (24th)
Sagarin
What (who) is Sagarin?
Jeff Sagarin made a rating and predictive system, then named it after, well, himself! It's an excellent way to look at ratings and determine scores in games by how closely or not close two teams rank. Sometimes, it can predict closer games in lopsided matchups or blowouts in closer games on paper.
Rank: 5th
Previously: 4th
Top 5: Ohio State (1st), Alabama (2nd), Georgia (3rd), Tennesse (4th), Michigan (5th)
Michigan has wins against: Penn State (14th)
Michigan will play: Ohio State (1st), Illinois (22nd)
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