Michigan football hosts Penn State for Week 7 matchup between two top-10 teams.
The No.5 Wolverines (6-0, 3-0) are hot off a 31-10 road win at Indiana (3-3, 1-2), while the No. 10 Nittany Lions (6-0, 3-0) are coming off a bye week following a 10-point home win over lowly Northwestern (1-5, 1-2).
James Franklin & Jim Harbaugh are always a treat individually, but together, on the same field, it can be a spectacle for many reasons.
Here are five key storylines to know before Michigan & Penn State clash.
Michigan's DL vs. Penn State's OL
Rather than individual performance, this matchup could ultimately be the X Factor.
Michigan's defensive line is again surging and playing at an elite level with the beef of its Big Ten schedule approaching.
Against Indiana last week, the defense totaled 7 sacks and 10 tackles for loss, most of that pressure forced by DE Mike Morris' breakout performance. The senior captain had an 83.8 overall pass rush grade and an 86.5 grade in true pass rush sets, both a team-high. His 7 tackles, 4 hurries, 2 QB hits, and a sack justify the grade.
Michigan is getting routinely strong performances from DT Mazi Smith, whose numbers would be absurd if not for the attention he draws from double teams. Forcing teams to scheme around Smith, arguably Michigan's best talent on defense, is opening the door for others, like Morris & transfer DE Eyabi Okie, to shine in more advantageous matchups.
Penn State's offensive line has two solid linemen, but the rest do a miserable job protecting QB Sean Clifford, especially on passing downs.
Michigan's defensive pressure could be a drive-ruiner for James Franklin's offense all day.
And for all the talk surrounding Penn State's talented running back room, its 58.9 run block grade (80th) is an obvious advantage for Michigan's defensive line, the second-highest graded run defense grade (92.0) in college football.
What will Michigan's offensive script look like?
We've seen Michigan's game plan go various ways on offense this season.
Co-coordinators Sherrone Moore & Matt Weiss can be unpredictable and very predictable. There's no in-between. While we know since they like to scheme around the mismatches, their playbook has weekly variables. But against Indiana, whose pass defense went into the game ranked below 100th, QB J.J. McCarthy averaged under 9 yards per target.
Having your expected future superstar gunslinger throw underneath all day against a Hoosier defense that was shelling to sell out on the run is arguable, especially considering the talent is there.
If you take a step back, despite his obvious talents, it's not shocking to see McCarthy attempt fewer deep throws, considering how many he's missed through five starts.
Big Time Throws- a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window- is a resourceful metric to see which QBs are making the most difficult throws.
McCarthy has only six, 74th-most among starting QBs.
There's no debating his raw talent, but the sophomore's play remains a ways away from his ultra-high ceiling.
Now, Michigan's play-calling could do him favors. McCarthy's 128 dropbacks are 110th among QBs. In his limited opportunities to throw the ball, he's been tremendous with precision and accuracy, evidenced by his 78.3% completion percentage, the best in the country. But he hasn't made the BTTs, almost exclusively by overthrowing open targets.
After throwing his first interception of the season last week, McCarthy completed his subsequent 10 passes, including two touchdown throws. He had season highs in pass attempts (36) and yards (304).
Is Michigan unlocking him? Or will it rely on Blake Corum to have another 30-plus carry day against a Penn State defensive line with an excellent pass rush?
Is Penn State's defense good?
It sounds like a simple question, but it isn't.
Penn State DC Manny Diaz's defense is aggressive with adjustments after a QB makes his pre-snap read, forcing McCarthy to check at the line, which he's shown an ability to do but not against a front as fearsome as Diaz's.
On Friday, you can read a deeper breakdown of the Nittany Lion scheme in our opponent preview, Eyes on the Enemy.
For now, let's look at some matchups. All grades are from PFF.
Michigan's 6th overall Run Offense Grade (90.6) vs. Penn Stae's 96th overall Run Defense Grade (67.3)
Michigan's 64th overall Pass Offense Grade (70.0) vs. Penn State's 36th-best Coverage Grade (83.5).
Michigan's 31st overall Pass Block Grade (73.4) vs. Penn State's 6th-best Pass Rush Grade (86.9)
While Penn State's defense is excellent in some areas (86.9 Pass Rush), it's vulnerable in others (67.3 Run Defense).
Michigan will have to protect McCarthy against a legit Penn State pass rush, especially when he's on his legs, where he's proven prone to fumbles this year, against a defense that forces the sixth-most turnovers nationally.
Perhaps more telling than any grade, though, is Penn State's troubling 48.7 Tackling Grade, which is the 14th-worst in college football and 3rd-worst among Power 5 teams. Meanwhile, Michigan's 91.0 grade is the best in the country.
The Wolverines excel in the run game and have a Heisman candidate in Blake Corum, whose 90.2 Run Grade is second-best nationally. If Penn State couldn't tackle before, it's hard to believe Saturday will be the day it does.
Corum's ability with the ball in his hands will give any team issues, but his 12th-most Yards After Contact is a game-breaker in matchups like this.
If Penn State opts to sell out on the run, similar to Indiana, then it'll have to count on CB duo Kalen King (88.9 Coverage Grade) & Joey Porter Jr. (79.5) in a lot of man-defense situations with the safeties dropping into Zone.
With McCarthy's talent, he can undoubtedly expose a defense that solely chooses to defend the run. But can he handle the pressure Penn State brings regularly?
So far, the Nittany Lions haven't faced an offense close to Michigan's, which scores 43 points per game, 5th nationally.
Here's a look at the scoring offenses Penn State has faced:
vs. Purdue (62nd)
vs. Ohio (61st)
vs. Auburn (117th)
vs. Central Michigan (92nd)
vs. Northwestern (114th)
Is Penn State's defense good?
We'll get a hint against Michigan.
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