Published Aug 9, 2022
Ahead of Schedule: By the Numbers
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Trevor McCue  •  Maize&BlueReview
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Colorado State - 14

Colorado State had only 14 takeaways on defense in 2021. 8 of the turnovers came in 3 games, so the Rams had only 6 turnovers in 9 games.

Michigan was one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over so they should be able to avoid drive killers in the season opener.

Hawaii -  446

The Rainbow Warriors had the worst defense in the MWC allowing 446 yards per game.

The defense has talented players so they should be better, but for an offense as explosive as Michigan they should rack up tons of yards. This game will be early in the season as well, so it might get as ugly as the 2016 matchup that saw Michigan win 63-3.

UConn - 4.83

The Huskies were atrocious on offense last season. Their pass offense was particularly inefficient with a 4.83 yard per pass attempt average.

UConn turns to Penn State transfer Ta’Quan Roberson at quarterback who struggled in limited duty for the Nittany Lions last season. You'd imagine UConn can only get better, but the Michigan defense should be able to stall a lot of drives on September 17.

Maryland - 3,860

Maryland finished above .500 and won a bowl game. They did this beating up on weaker opponents but struggling against better teams.

The Terrapins are led by every writer's favorite breakout pick of the offseason Taulia Tagovailoa. The former Bama QB threw for 3,860 yards last season and many think he can throw for over 4,000 in 2021. Michigan held him to 178 yards in their game last season.

Iowa - 329.1

Michigan fans have a skewed image of what Iowa was last season after beating them in the Big Ten Championship game 42-3.

Iowa had one of the better defenses in the country last season, giving up only 329.1 yards per game. They also forced 2.2 turnovers a game. With the game at Kinnick and Michigan potentially still trying to figure out their identity on offense, expect this game to be way closer than the Big Ten Championship game was.

Indiana - 290

While Iowa had one of the best defenses in the conference, Indiana had the worst offense. Averaging only 290 yards per game in 2021.

The Hoosiers made big changes with its staff and roster on both sides of the ball. With a new OC and new QB in Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak, Indiana will obviously hope to see improvement with the offense. They will have to do it without top receivers Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot.

Penn State - 11

For most of Harbaugh's time in Ann Arbor, there have been comparisons to James Franklin and Penn State. When Harbaugh was expected to bring Michigan back, Franklin was winning the B1G, getting to the Rose Bowl, and winning two NY6 bowls.

The past two seasons have flipped with Michigan winning the Big Ten and Penn State winning only 11 of 22 games. Expectations of Franklin will not be trending down after a new contract, but after hanging close with Iowa, MSU, Michigan, and OSU in 2021, the Nittany Lions are going to need to win those games if they want to return to the top-tier of the conference.

Michigan State - 9

The Spartans exceeded the expectations of nearly every college football pundit with a 11 win season that included a NY6 bowl.

What the Spartans will be in 2022 is tough to project. MSU had a +9 point differential against Big Ten opponents, but went 7-2. Nebraska for instance was 0 in point differential but went 1-8. MSU loses Kenneth Walker and Jalen Nailor, but still has Jayden Reed. Tucker hit the portal hard again and there is no chance they won't be giving their all to beat Michigan again.

Rutgers - 20

Rutgers is entering the third season of the second stint under Greg Schiano. While the program was still far away in 2021, it took steps forward as well.

Rutgers' O/U win total is only at 4.5, but they won and were competitive last year in games they shouldn't have been, including against Michigan. 20 points is what the Wolverines put up in the first half against the Scarlet Knights, and 20 points is all they would score for the entire game. Rutgers was the first to slow down the Michigan run game, and the Wolverines struggled. They will need a more dynamic offense this season and shouldn't be tested by Rutgers again in 2022.

Nebraska - 12

As I discussed above Nebraska was even in points for and against in the Big Ten last season but lost 8 games. Analytics luck factor considered them one of the unluckiest teams in college football. The other part of the story is they simply turned the ball over too much and didn't force enough of their own.

12 takeaways for the Huskers in 2021 isn't going to do it. They are going to need to find pressure somewhere and the new look secondary with 4 starters coming via the transfer portal needs to find ways to turn the ball over if they are going to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Illinois - 1,005

Illinois had an up and down first year under Bret Bielema, but fans of the program are feeling optimistic. While they lost games they shouldn't have, they also beat Penn State and Minnesota.

A big reason why is underrated running back Chase Brown. Brown had 1,005 rushing yards in 2021 on only 170 carries. The offensive line will get better because it's Bret Bielema team, and I wouldn't be shocked if Brown is one of the better running backs in the Big Ten this season.

Ohio State - 64.1%

Ohio State is once again the favorites in the Big Ten and one of the top 3 teams in odds to win the National Championship. Their explosive offense was on center stage throughout the season, with a lot of attention paid to the defense during and after the season.

One big issue with the offense that doesn't get talked about enough however is their red zone offense. Ohio State can light up the stats sheets between the 20s, but only found the end zone 64.1% of the time from the red zone, and were even worse against top 25 defenses. You don't have to look further than the Michigan game last season where CJ Stroud and the receivers had a great numbers day, but had to settle for field goals twice in the first half, preserving Michigan's lead heading to the locker room. The offense will be electric, but if they can't score TDs from the red zone again Michigan could get back to back to wins over the Buckeyes for the first time since 1999-2000.*

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