It's Selection Sunday, and the Wolverines are on the bubble. Last look at where they stand with experts and metrics.

As of Sunday morning Bracket Matrix continues to have Michigan as an 11 seed, and not heading to Dayton. They have been passed by Virginia Tech who upset Duke to win the ACC Tournament last night. VA Tech gets the automatic bid and appears to be safe from the play-in.

After defeating Michigan and Illinois in the B1G Tournament, Indiana is now safe in the tournament and tied with Michigan on the 11 line. Another B1G team to watch is Rutgers, who Bracket Matrix has in the tournament, but as a 12 in the play-in. Notre Dame, South Dakota State, and now Conference USA Champions UAB make up the rest of the 12 seed play-ins.

Worth mentioning that Bracket Matrix's top predictor has Michigan safe as an 11 seed, while the 2nd and 3rd best sites have Michigan as the top 12 seed playing in Dayton.

Possibly the most famous bracketologist, is ESPN's Joe Lunardi. His updates have been interesting to say the least the past few days.

Michigan had been in his "Last Four Byes" all week, even after their early B1G Tournament exit. What is interesting is Lunardi dropped Michigan to the "Last Four In" BEFORE Indiana jumped them with their second round victory against Illinois. His most recent update has them "Last Four In".

Lunardi is far from the most accurate predictor according to Bracket Matrix, but he no doubt has gotten tips throughout the years. The committee largely has the bracket complete heading into the weekend, and some are wondering if Lunardi was tipped off that Michigan would be heading to Dayton. His last update is typically the most accurate, as it is now based on "info" he has received.

In recent years, the Selection Committee has been relying heavily on NET Rating to determine entry and seeding. Michigan continues to be one of the highest rated bubble teams in NET thanks to a top 5 SOS, five Quad 1 wins, three Quad 2, six Quad 3, and 6-0 record in Quad 4. Currently ranked 34, and considered a 8/9 seed by the metric, Michigan would be one of the higher ranked teams ever left out of the tournament if they do not get an invite.

What makes bracket predictions like Lunardi's so puzzling is despite their 17-14 record, Michigan is ranked above Indiana (38), Iowa State (47), Notre Dame (52), Rutgers (78), the four teams Lunardi says are "Last Four Byes" and escaping Dayton.

The KenPom metric tells a similar story where Michigan is ranked 33 and ahead of teams like Wisconsin, Davidson, Indiana, Michigan State, and Texas A&M.

Again, with the expectation the bracket is largely already set, and not too many bracket busting games remaining, Michigan's fate should not depend on results too much coming Sunday.

However, there are a few games to watch where outcomes could increase anxiety heading into the afternoon.

- Texas A&M beating Tennessee in the SEC Championship game could push the Aggies into an 11 seed.

- With Davidson safe in the tournament, Richmond winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament would knock whoever the last team in is out of the tournament.

I think Michigan is in no matter what. While they deserve to be an 11 seed or better, and safe in the tournament, all the smoke is there that the Wolverines will playing in Dayton to earn their place as one of the 64 teams in the standard tournament.

Selection Sunday 2022 for the NCAA DI men's and women's basketball tournament is Sunday, March 13. The 68-team men's field will be announced at 6 p.m. ET on CBS.

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