Behind Enemy Lines: Michigan
Can the Nittany Lions get their first win of the 2020 season at Michigan on Saturday?
At 2-3 on the season, coming off a triple-overtime 48-42 win at Rutgers last weekend, the Wolverines have also been through a quarterback change and are fighting to finish out a disappointing season with more success than its first half. Meanwhile, Penn State dropped to 0-5 following its 41-21 loss to Iowa last Saturday at Beaver Stadium.
Still seeking that first win of a wholly unsatisfying 2020 season, we checked in with Austin Fox of TheWolverine.com to learn more about Penn State's opponent (noon, ABC).
1) To what extent has Michigan’s football operation, and how Jim Harbaugh likes to run his program, been disrupted by COVID and all of its fallout?
AF: Very little, and significantly less than most programs around the nations. Michigan’s virus numbers have been low all along, and to our knowledge, no contributors have missed any game action because of it.
In fact, Michigan continued practicing in August when many other programs shut down and were thought to have an advantage as a result. To blame U-M’s struggles this season on the virus or any other off-the-field distractions is nothing but an excuse. The blame for this disaster falls solely on the players and the coaches and the poor all-around job they’ve done, specifically the latter.
2) How do you gauge the significance of leaving Piscataway with a win instead of a loss last weekend coming into this game with Penn State?
AF: It was absolutely huge.
For whatever reason, Michigan’s players have been mentally weak over the last year or so, and things have tended to spiral out of control during games at the first sign or two of adversity. When Michigan State surprisingly showed it could hang with U-M on Oct. 31, the Wolverines had no idea how to respond and as a result not only lost the game but let it destroy their confidence as well.
The team didn’t show much interest in competing for the next two weeks against Indiana and Wisconsin, losing the two games by a combined score of 87-32. Michigan’s self-pity carried over into the Rutgers game last weekend when the team found itself down 17-0 in the second quarter before redshirt freshman quarterback Cade McNamara was inserted and decided to actually show some fight.
His energy, enthusiasm, and passion seemed to energize the team as they climbed out of the 17-0 deficit to win 48-42. Sure, it was just a win over lowly Rutgers, but Michigan nevertheless rediscovered confidence and swagger in Piscataway it hadn’t played with since the season-opening win over Minnesota on Oct. 24.
3) What’s the situation at quarterback this week? Can you provide a quick scouting report of the pros and cons?
AF: McNamara is not only fully expected to be the starter, but to also play the entire game (barring injury or massive struggles). The Joe Milton experiment hasn’t worked, and that was painfully obvious last Saturday at Rutgers when Michigan’s offense swung on a dime and suddenly became effective as soon as Milton hit the bench and McNamara came into the game. It has been an extremely small sample size for the redshirt freshman, but there are a lot of pros in his game and not many cons. Again, it’s important to note he’s only thrown 46 passes this season, but McNamara’s throws have consistently been on the money. He has seldom put the ball in harm’s way and hasn’t really made any iffy throws, which can’t be said for Milton. McNamara’s passes have had touch and accuracy, while Milton’s, on the other hand, were oftentimes off the mark and fired like rockets.
Sure, the majority of the redshirt freshman’s work came last week against a poor Rutgers secondary, but he also threaded the needle several times the week before against an elite Wisconsin secondary. McNamara has shown good pocket presence as well and delivered accurate passes in the face of pressure.
As for cons, we haven’t really seen any from McNamara yet. He doesn’t have the mobility Milton had but is still capable of taking off with his legs. We saw him score a rushing touchdown in the second overtime last week in which he fought through contact to find the end zone.
4) When Michigan is playing its best football this season, what does that look like?
AF: This would undoubtedly entail McNamara at quarterback leading the offense, like we saw him do during the second half and the overtime sessions against Rutgers. The rushing attack began to find its way late against the Scarlet Knights as well, with redshirt sophomore running back Hassan Haskins rushing for 111 yards and a touchdown. The most complete game Michigan has played this season, though, occurred in the 49-24 beatdown at Minnesota. It had the running game working beautifully en route to 256 yards on the ground, thanks in large part to explosive runs (a 70-yard touchdown run from sophomore running back Zach Charbonnet and a 66-yard run from Haskins, for example).
The passing attack was also efficient that evening, with Milton throwing for 225 yards on 15-of-22 passing (68.1 percent), and most importantly not turning the ball over. The defense also played its best game of the season that night, only allowing 326 yards.
The problem is we haven’t really seen U-M play its best football outside of that win in Minneapolis, so to be honest, we’re really not sure what Michigan’s ‘best football’ looks like this year.
5) Are there any areas of the game in which Michigan has been particularly susceptible to making mistakes or having trouble this season?
AF: Well, how much time do we have? The list of mistakes and deficiencies is a long one, with basically every area of the team underperforming so far.
Let’s start at quarterback; Milton turned into a turnover machine against Indiana and Wisconsin (four combined interceptions) and regressed as the season went on, which led to his benching. The running backs haven’t been featured much, but that has been due to horrendous offensive line play. The front five hasn’t been able to run block effectively to save their lives, which has led to U-M’s ground game being nonexistent for most of the year (Michigan has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or fewer in its last three games).
Drops have plagued the pass catchers in a big way (they’ve already dropped 12 passes, according to Pro Football Focus), and the wideouts struggled to get open through the first four games.
The Don Brown defense that had been so stellar in recent years, meanwhile, is a shell of its former self. The secondary has been torched all year long and doesn’t seem to have any idea how to play the ball in the air, while a front seven that used to be all about creating pressure has not been able to get to opposing quarterbacks (just eight sacks on the season). Add the lack of a pass rush and poor secondary play together, and the result is a defense that has not been able to force turnovers (U-M’s three takeaways are tied with Maryland for the fewest in the Big Ten).
There have also been consistent complaints about the team’s body language, and lack of enthusiasm and passion. Players are constantly hanging their heads or slumping their shoulders, and seem to wilt at the first sign of adversity. Saying the team has a major culture problem would be an accurate statement.
Bonus) What’s your pick?
AF: McNamara gave Michigan the spark and the energy it had been missing last week, and the team finally showed some fight in the face of adversity to come away with the win. It’s fair to expect them to carry that same energy into this week and for the offense to operate efficiently once again, though it’s important to remember this is still an all-around bad team.
Michigan should control the game for much of the afternoon and hold a slim lead throughout, though it certainly isn’t good enough to blow Penn State out.
Michigan 34
Penn State 27
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