Best QB season under Jim Harbaugh

Jim Harbaugh and the success of the quarterback position at Michigan have been forever connected since he arrived in Ann Arbor. Seven different quarterbacks have started for Michigan in Harbaugh's seven seasons at Michigan.

With that being said, we try to tackle the following question: Which quarterback had the best season?

It's a polarizing topic with strong opinions, so I wanted to look at it through the lens of only statistical analysis. So many things have shaped narratives and perceptions around the QBs of the Harbaugh era and I wanted to see how their numbers compare.

What was important was first deciding what were the best seasons and then creating a line to which to compare them all. The first part was obvious, as Michigan's best QB seasons align with Michigan's best seasons as a team.

Jake Rudock in 2015.
Wilton Speight in 2016.
Shea Patterson in 2018.
Cade McNamara in 2021.

I took each QBs stats for those seasons only. I will not be factoring in Speight or Patterson's senior seasons. I am trying to find the best single season. I then charted out all of their numbers and created a mean. The mean is better than average as it accounts for any outliers and creates a metric for what is fair to expect in these seasons.

For this, I decided to focus on Comp %, TDs, INT, Yards, and Rating. I am not factoring in rushing yards because Shea was the far more mobile QB and then I would have to include fumbles. I want to see who had the best season, as a passer.

Let's take a look at each category and see how they compare and what conclusions we can make.

This was the closest category between Patterson (64.6%), McNamara (64.2%), and Rudock (64.0%). Shea and Cade completed the same number of passes but Shea had two fewer attempts. Rudock is arguably more impressive as he is just .6% behind Patterson with 74 more attempts.

The mean here is 64.1%, so the edge goes to Shea and Cade.

Jake Rudock threw 20 TD in Harbaugh's first season in 2015. Shea Patterson leads the group with 22 TD. Speight is just below the mean with 18 TD. Cade is the outlier of the group with only 15 TD in 14 games. McNamara had TD passes in only 8 games and got 9 of his 15 TDs in Michigan's 5 road games.

With the mean at 19, huge edge to Shea who threw for the most touchdowns with the fewest pass attempts.

It's not shocking that in Michigan's best seasons, QBs do a good job of protecting the ball. There wasn't much separation between any of the signal-callers. McNamara led the way with 6, while Patterson and Speight each had 7. Rudock threw the most with 9 INT, with 3 coming in the opening game against Utah.

The mean here is 7, so while there is a perception some were bad at protecting the ball through the air and others were great, they were all remarkably similar.

This is an interesting one. Rudock is the only one to separate from the mean with the third-most passing yards in Michigan history, 3017 yards. Speight (2538 YDS), Patterson (2600 YDS), and McNamara (2576 YDS) are all within MOE to the mean. With Rudock having the most attempts, Shea is ahead in yards per attempt and the only one to crack 8.0. However, they are all within 7.7-8.0.

Rudock's season is worth recognizing here, but when you factor in attempts they are all so similar. Patterson did throw for the second-most yards in Michigan history with 3,061 YDS, but we are only counting his better 2018 season in this comparison.

QB rating has become polarizing over the years, but it is the perfect number to sum up the stat categories we have focused on here. The formula is;
QB Rating = a+ (3.3*b)- (2*c)+ (8.4*d)
a = (Comp/Att) * 100
b = (TDs/Att) * 100
c = (Int/Att) * 100
d = Yards/Att

When you account for the Comp %, TDs, INTs, Yards over attempts the QB Rating mean is 141.7. The not shocking results are Shea Patterson leads the way with a 149.8. He is the leader or inline in every stat and on fewer attempts. Cade McNamara and Jake Rudock have nearly identical numbers with QB ratings of 141.9 and 141.5 respectively. Sandwiching the mean by .2. Wilton Speight has the lowest rating at 139.8. He has numbers similar to Cade and Rudock, but 3pts less in completion percentage.

Some things were confirmed, and some new things were learned. It is easy to see how the result of the Ohio State game shapes narratives around each QBs season.

2015 was a game that got away in the second half. I'm not sure what fans' expectations were for that game, but Michigan exceeded expectations on the season. Rudock came to Ann Arbor in the fall and performed well. That game, Rudock's season, is largely forgotten because of what came next.

2016 was arguably the greatest edition of The Game ever played. Speight did some things well and some made mistakes playing injured against the Buckeyes. I think his effort is remembered fondly and helps shape the narrative around him.

2018 felt like the year it would finally happen. After an opening season loss to Notre Dame, Michigan would go on its Revenge Tour. Michigan went to Columbus as the favorites, already ranking in the CFP, and the Buckeyes seemingly struggling to end the season. The blowout loss was the worst of Harbaugh's career. It would set in motion a narrative and vibe around the program that wouldn't break until last year's Big Ten Championship season.

2021 was the year. Michigan finally did it. They beat Ohio State. As Cade McNamara said, he is a B1G Champion quarterback. That part of the narrative is inescapable. Cade is often compared to John Navarre, an underappreciated QB who was the last to beat Ohio State and win a B1G Championship. But Navarre threw for 3,331 yards that year, nearly 800 more than Cade. He threw 24 TDs and 10 INT. That's 9 more touchdowns and 4 more interceptions on an incredible 130 more attempts. Navarre also had what would be the clear best game against Ohio State if he was in this comparison.

My goal was to figure out who had the best season at QB of the Harbaugh era. Then, I wanted to see if I could draw any conclusions about Cade McNamara as he is still in Ann Arbor, the incumbent starting quarterback heading into 2022.

Shea Patterson in 2018 had the best season of any Michigan QB under Jim Harbaugh. He was the most accurate, threw for the most touchdowns, was within the mean on yards and interceptions, and was by far the highest-rated. I think it is clear the 2018 blowout to Ohio State, and the eventual 2019 season have shaped fans' perception of Patterson. His performances against Michigan State are legendary and that shows you how much more the Ohio State game means. Those back-to-back blowout losses just can't be overcome when it comes to narrative. When you throw out the emotions and simply look at the numbers, his 2018 season is simply the best we've seen under Jim Harbaugh.

Cade McNamara deserves a lot of praise. I do believe Cade should not and will not lose his job in the offseason. I think that is what he has earned as the returning Big Ten Champion starting quarterback. Michigan had an incredible group of leaders including Aidan Hutchinson, Hassan Haskins, Josh Ross, and Cade McNamara. Cade is the only one returning. That leadership is invaluable. If JJ McCarthy does eventually become the starting QB at Michigan, he will take Cade's job on the field. Coach Harbaugh will not take it from Cade.

McNamara had a great season in 2021, arguably the second-best in the Harbaugh era. Without a doubt, 2021 was the best team year for Harbaugh as he finally checked off multiple narratives about winning big games, winning on the road, beating Ohio State, getting to Indy, and winning the Big Ten. However, what Cade McNamara's season was is essentially the mean of the four best seasons we have seen since 2015. His numbers are almost identical across the board to the mean and he didn't do exceptionally better or worse than any QB in any category.

Cade McNamara is the starting QB for the Michigan Wolverines and he will be until someone else proves they should be, obviously JJ McCarthy's goal this fall. He is one of the best QBs in the Jim Harbaugh era and Michigan history. However, team success has helped shape the narratives of each of these quarterbacks, good and bad. What McNamara needs to do now is what Shea Patterson and Wilton Speight couldn't do in their next seasons. Stay healthy, build on the success they've had, and help themselves and Michigan reach even greater heights.

---

Discuss this article with our community on our premium message boards

Not a subscriber to The Maize and Blue Review? Sign up today to gain access to all the latest Michigan intel TMBR has to offer

Follow our staff on Twitter: @JoshHenschke, @BrandonJustice_, @ZachLibby, @TrevorMcCue, @DennisFithian, @BrockHeilig, @DanielDash_, @StephenToski, @Baird_CJ, @JimScarcelli

Subscribe to our podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify

Check out The Maize and Blue Review's video content on YouTube!

Follow The Maize and Blue Review on social media: Facebook, Twitter and Instagram