Betting preview: Michigan football vs. Maryland

There are many angles to analyzing a college football game.

Since the legalization of sports betting in numerous states, including Michigan, betting on the sport has become a cultural phenomenon.

Each week ahead of U-M's matchup, Maize & Blue Review will publish a preview piece focusing solely on the game's betting side.

This week, the Wolverines host undefeated Maryland for homecoming and both program's first Big Ten games of the season.

Let's look at how to bet Michigan vs. Maryland on Saturday.

On Monday, the spread opened at 15.5 in Michigan's favor, then within 24 hours, swung out to 17.5, universally, after a strong line of maize and blue tickets came through.

By Thursday morning, the line floated down to 16.5 and settled in at 17 at most books, but late Thursday evening, some shops moved the line back to 16.5, with Westgate going as low as 15.5. But that didn't last long.

At the time of writing, the consensus is at 17, with a few books at 16.5.

Michigan is dominating tickets (91%) and money (84%), with sharps betting down when the number hits 17.5.

According to The Action Network, the projected line is MICH -13.2, making the number advantageous if you like Maryland as much as TAN's system.

Outside of betting trends, U-M has advantages all over the field.

Michigan's No. 1 scoring offense gets to play at home in fair weather against Maryland's 100th-best passing defense. J.J. McCarthy, who was nearly perfect in non-conference play, should give the Wolverines the game's most sizable mismatch.

Maryland is one of the most penalized teams in college football, averaging over 10 per game, making the Terps the third-most penalized team in the Power Five behind only Purdue (11) and Virginia Tech (11.3). Meanwhile, Michigan is the least penalized team in the Power Five.

Taulia Tagovailoa is one of the most accurate college quarterbacks of this decade. Still, he can't get any help from his defense, and if U-M's 3rd-best passing defense can translate half as good as it was in non-conference play, Michigan should contain the potent passing attack.

One area of concern for Michigan is containing Rakim Jarrett, a future pro slot receiver. U-M CB Mike Sainristil switched from wide receiver to defense this offseason, and so far, he's excelled in his new role, exclusively at nickel. However, Jarrett is undoubtedly one of his most challenging assignments of the season.

Still, given the width of mismatches in Michigan's favor -- Passing O vs. Passing D, Scoring O vs. Scorind D, Penalties Per Game, etc. -- it's hard to see Maryland overcoming a two-possession spread, though I think they'll make it close for a half.

Michigan is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and 10-1 straight up at home. Maryland is 6-14 ATS in its previous 20 road games.

Sagarin, a college football rating system, rates Michigan at an overall score of 88.35 (5th) and Maryland at 75.00 (44th).

The home team gets three points in Sagarin's system, making Michigan a 16.35-point system favorite.

By adding on the same 3-point home swing, ESPN's SP+ projections make Michigan a 19-point favorite.

I'll take the J.J. McCarthy upside and penalty differential in this pick.

Pick: Michigan -17

Opening at 59.5, the total was up to 62.5 by Tuesday and didn't stop rising from there.

At the time of writing, it's up to 64.5, after getting as high as 65.5 on Thursday before sharps bought it back down to 64.5.

TAN's computer model projects the total right on par with the line at 64, so it's hard to see an edge.

Michigan's scoring offense is top in the country, and despite its lackluster schedule, Maryland's passing defense (100th overall) doesn't present much of a challenge.

For the gunslinger, McCarthy, it should be another easy day. The Terrapins have a pass rush, but the sophomore's ability to use his legs should counter that well enough.

On the other side, Maryland has what we've already discussed in the spread, a pristinely accurate quarterback and a slot machine (pun intended).

Michigan's passing defense only allowed 91 yards per game in the non-conference, but Tagovailoa is arguably the second or third-best QB in the conference.

The projections say this will be a sweaty one, and I agree, but I think they squeak it out with a high-scoring first half and a second half where Michigan pulls away.

At 65.5, I think it's too high, but at 64.5, I'll sacrifice odds to erase the hook, getting 64 at -115 to -120.

Pick: over 64.5

Michigan team total o41.5: My worry with the total is how sustainable Maryland's offense will be. U-M's offense is a mismatch for the Maryland D, averaging over 50 points per game. I don't see the offense going two possessions under their average in the first game, with the starters playing 60 minutes.

J.J. McCarthy o20.5 rushing yards: McCarthy didn't need to run much with all the time he had in the pocket against Hawaii and UConn. Maryland's pass rush and Michigan's slow start with its pass protection should equate a few scrambles for the sophomore, who head coach Jim Harbaugh says runs with 4.4 speed.

Taulia Tagovailoa o1.5 TD: Michigan's passing defense hasn't been remotely challenged yet and there is a stark contrast between Tagovailoa and the non-con QBs. I don't think he goes for 300-plus, but playing behind should force Maryland to pass even more than they already do. Two touchdowns offer too much value, given the player and the game flow.

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