Bracketology: Looking At Michigan Basketball's Tournament Résumé
With selection Sunday 30 days away, Michigan Wolverines basketball (15-9, 6-7 Big Ten) is in a good spot for its NCAA Tournament hopes.
After going 3-6 in the month of January, the Wolverines are 3-1 in February, and have won four of five games. They're getting healthy at the right time, as junior forward Isaiah Livers is back in the lineup after missing nine games.
ESPN's bracket expert Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm both have U-M as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament in their latest projected brackets.
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After beating Michigan State and Northwestern in the last week, U-M sits at No. 28 in today's version of the NCAA's official NET Rankings, which factors in game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency and the quality of wins and losses.
In addition to NET Rankings, a large factor that the selection committee takes into consideration is quadrant records, broken down by opponent's NET rank and where the game took place:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
6-8 |
2-1 |
2-0 |
5-0 |
The Wolverines picked up a quad 1 win with the 77-68 victory over Michigan State last Saturday, and notched a quad 3 win with a road victory over Northwestern Wednesday night.
U-M is tied for the eighth-most quad 1 wins in the country, and no team has played more quad 1 games than the Wolverines. Only Wisconsin has played as many (14).
So far this season, U-M has had the fourth-toughest schedule in the nation, according to Kenpom. That has provided the opportunity for some quality wins, and very few (if any) bad losses.
| Best Wins | Worst Losses |
|---|---|
|
Neutral vs. Gonzaga (3) |
at Minnesota (40) |
|
vs. Michigan State (11) |
vs. Illinois (36) |
|
vs. Creighton (19) |
at Illinois (36) |
|
vs. Purdue (29) |
at Iowa (30) |
|
vs. Iowa (30) |
vs. Oregon (25) |
U-M's worst two losses is on the road to Minnesota and at home against Illinois, and yes, wins in those games would've been a nice boost, but losses there didn't hurt U-M's résumé all that much. The good and bad from U-M's tough schedule has been that most every victory has been quality, but those wins also have been harder to come by, due to the quality of opponents.
Looking Ahead
Right now, the Wolverines are in the NCAA Tournament field, but if they were to lose some games and jeopardize their standing as a tournament team, here's a look at last year's last four teams in, and what their resume's look like.
| Team | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | NET ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Belmont |
2-2 |
3-1 |
3-2 |
47 |
|
Temple |
2-6 |
6-2 |
7-1 |
56 |
|
St. John's |
5-7 |
5-3 |
3-2 |
73 |
|
Arizona State |
3-3 |
8-3 |
5-2 * |
63 |
Comparing U-M to the résumés of the teams that barely made it in last season, things look to be in a good spot for the Wolverines this year, but that doesn't mean there's not work left to do.
The Wolverines have the opportunity to collect four more quad one victories in the final seven games of the regular season slate, if the rankings hold (they're updated daily).
Here's U-M's remaining regular season schedule, and where the opponents rank in the NET:
vs. Indiana (58)
at Rutgers (32)
at Purdue (29)
vs. Wisconsin (31)
at Ohio State (23)
vs. Nebraska (168)
at Maryland (8)
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