By the Numbers: Examining Michigan's pass rush efficiency from the edge

Michigan's biggest question on defense, the dead horse still being beaten, who replaces Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo?

Through 4 games, there have been moments of promise and moments of concern. Michigan's EDGE defenders have not been as good as last year. This is true, but also not surprising. We knew this would be a committee approach, but who is that committee and how are they doing so far? Are the starters meeting expectations and which of the players in the rotations group could be close to an Ojabo-style breakout?

Let's break down the numbers with Michigan's EDGE rushers. We are going to look at how many pass snaps they have played and what percentage of their total snaps have been pass plays. How many sacks and total pressures (hits and hurries) do they have? We are also going to use a score that factors all of that together for a Pass Rush Impact rating, we will call that PRI. What we are looking for are trends and patterns that can give us clues to what is working well for Michigan, and where could the improvement come from.

Lots of information in this chart, but some immediate takeaways stick out.

Let's break this down into the obvious tiers and analyze the "starters" and the "rotation" guys on the outside.

All offseason we talked about the top three candidates to replace Hutchinson and Ojabo on the outside.

Jaylen Harrell and Mike Morris unsurprisingly lead the way in actual pass snaps. Taylor Upshaw came into the season pegged for the "Ojabo" role with expectations Harrell would be more of a run specialist SAM. This obviously has not held through the first four games of the season. I was the leader of the Upshaw hype train, but he has disappeared when watching the games. The numbers show that out, as he has by far the lowest Pass Rush Impact among the leading EDGE players.

Morris is leading the way with 3 sacks and 14 total pressures. This is being driven by his team-high 10 hurries. Obviously, the next leap for him would be getting to the quarterback more. Morris just isn't the type of player Hutchinson was, not in talent but in the scheme. He strikes me as much more of Chris Wormley/Taco Charlton type of EDGE rusher. Could he do more? Sure, you'd say that of any player, but he is doing his job.

Harrell was lights out the first two games but has trended back to his average in the last two. He still holds the second-best PRI, but he is in a similar situation to Morris with 9 hurries. You'd like to see him get home more, but at this point, Harrell has been playing above expectations in the pass rush given the expectation he would be more of a run specialist. He plays more like a true SAM, and drops in coverage more than any of the other EDGE players. If he can take the next step, great, but he is also doing his job up to this point.

I have been focused on the second group all season. I think we largely know what Michigan has with Morris, Harrell, and Upshaw. Again, each could do more, but I'm not sure you can expect that.

What we are really talking about here, is the next Ojabo. The next breakout. That has to come from the group of Braiden McGregor, Derrick Moore, and Eyabi Okie.

There should be zero concern that we haven't seen that level of a breakout yet. All three of these players are undoubtedly talented, but for varying reasons have opportunities to improve, and challenges to overcome, that simply will take time or can only happen with more practice and more games.

Reminder, through 4 games in 2021, Ojabo had 8 tackles and 1 sack. Those are the exact same statistics Braiden McGregor has through this season's first 4 games. In fact, this was the Ojabo breakout last season, where he had 7 tackles and 2.5 sacks against Wisconsin. Ojabo would add a sack or more in every remaining game except Maryland to finish the season with 12.

Now, I am not saying McGregor is going to have that Ojabo breakout, but I wanted to offer some perspective. McGregor suffered a serious knee injury his senior year of high school and didn't play his freshman year. He saw the field 9 times in 2021, but largely in mop-up duty. He is the most inconsistent of the "next" three but when he makes a play I can't help but notice how much he looks like Hutch. He is only going to get better and more consistent with more playing time.

Derrick Moore's biggest obstacle is obvious, he is only a freshman. Typically it is hard to make an impact on the defensive line as a freshman because most offensive linemen have been in their programs for 2, 3, or even more seasons. The physical development that exists for a 21-year-old college football player vs an 18-year-old who just got out of high school is tough to overcome. Moore is an incredibly unique prospect physically. At 6'3" 279lbs he sticks out even among his fellow EDGE rushers. He is strong and surprisingly technical for a freshman.

Moore needs to learn the subtle details of the defense. Being able to understand and adjust to pre-snap calls. It all comes from practicing and playing. His numbers in limited opportunities stick out just like he does when he is on the field. His PRI is just short of Harrell in half the reps. He has earned more chances at this point.

Eyabi Okie is in a similar but different situation to Moore. Jim Harbaugh had this to say about Okie while meeting with the media.

"Eyabi is that talented that he can come in—he's that smart," Harbaugh said. "He's picked up most of the defense. Every week there are more and more calls that he knows and we can play him. It's just down to just a few really, that's he's still mastering. I do believe (he can contribute more). Players love him, we love him and you're going to see him more and more because of the time on task."

Okie is right there with Moore. A PRI of 10.4 puts him in line with Harrell and ahead of Upshaw. As Harbaugh said, Okie simply needs to learn the defense. He has all the talent needed and is getting close to being that breakout. Harbaugh specifically saying we will see more of him is very telling to me. It doesn't take a genius to watch the film, look at the charts, to see what Okie's impact can be. Of all the 6 EDGE rushers we have discussed, he is the one with speed and ability on the outside to become the next Ojabo-like breakout. I said when it was first announced that if he could get to a Uche-type role on third down, that would be fantastic for this defense. That is what Michigan really needs, and with how ahead of schedule Okie is, I don't think it is crazy to expect that or even more at this point.

The other portion of this equation I wanted to discuss was pressure from the position. Michigan moves their players around, a lot. Some of it is mismatch dependent, and some of it is just about keeping the offense guessing. The six EDGE players we have focused on will pass rush from the left or right side, and are surprisingly balanced. The highest bias is Derrick Moore who rushes from the right side 59.3% of the time, while Jaylen Harrell and Eyabi Okie have a perfect 50/50 split rushing from the left or right. The point is, there doesn't seem to be a scheme choice to favor a side for any of the primary EDGE defenders.

What does vary however is the success rate in left and right pass rushing. The next chart will show the percentage of pass rushes each player takes from each side and what their PRI score is for each side.

There could be explanations for some of these disparities, something that could probably only come from watching and detailing each pass rush snap for each player. Is it technique related or are the trends artificial in the sense there were other impacts in the play?

For the top three, there are enough snaps that I am willing to make some assumptions about. Mike Morris having a 22.2 PRI from the right side is glaring. His hurries are split 5/5 between left and right, but all 3 of the sacks came from the right. It is not uncommon for a right-handed player to favor the right side. If your best pass rusher also does best against the left tackle, that's a tendency you should lean into.

Which ties right into the next point, which is Derrick Moore and Eyabi Okie appear to be doing better from the left side. Now, they don't have nearly the snaps of Morris and Harrell so I am not as comfortable calling these trends. However, if my more true DE is taking on my left tackle, and my speed guy can be taking on the right tackle, that feels like a formula for success especially on 3rd and long. I found a play from JDue's Twitter analysis that highlights this exact situation.

Michigan moves Upshaw inside to get more speed on the line in an obvious passing down. They did this a lot in 2021, with Mike Morris typically moving inside.

On this play, Mazi and Upshaw run a stunt that occupies the double team and pushes the pocket back into the QB. When he starts to feel the pressure from the outside, he has nowhere to step up. Okie takes his lineman upfield with speed and then moves back to the QB, while Morris wins his matchup with strength and gets home for the sack. Can't draw it up much better.

I think this largely confirms some obvious things we thought we knew.

Morris and Harrell have been Michigan's best pass rushers. Upshaw has been disappearing in games and the numbers show it. There is a lot of potential in the second group. McGregor has his moments but needs to be more consistent. Moore and Okie have the potential to be real impact players, and they just need the opportunities, something Harbaugh said is coming. Michigan is surprisingly balanced with its side of attack, but there are some patterns developing that may be worth exploring.

Overall, concern isn't the word I would use for the EDGE position, but it is definitely something that requires attention. Harbaugh himself has said as much and just like last season, this feels like the week we could see this position group take a huge leap.

Discuss this article with our community on our premium message boards

Not a subscriber to Maize & Blue Review? Sign up today to gain access to all the latest Michigan intel M&BR has to offer

Follow our staff on Twitter: @JoshHenschke, @BrandonJustice_, @RivalsLibby, @TrevorMcCue, @DennisFithian, @BrockHeilig, @JimScarcelli, @DavisMoseley, @lucasreimink

Subscribe to our podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify

Check out Maize & Blue Review's video content on YouTube

Follow Maize & Blue Review on social media: Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram