By the Numbers: JJ McCarthy boom or bust passing vs TCU

The word that continues to come to my mind is uncharacteristic. Nothing about that game felt like the Michigan football we have watched for the last two seasons. The mistakes they made and even how they succeeded in some ways, was so out of character for the Wolverines.

I wrote earlier in the week about narratives around JJ McCarthy’s passing game heading into the Fiesta Bowl, and what the data showed. Some of those narratives were busted but this was a very different night for McCarthy throwing the ball. JJ did a lot of good things Saturday night, but the bad were about as bad as it gets. What went right, what went wrong, and was there a huge missed opportunity for the Wolverines?

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Any one who has followed Michigan closely knows how surprising this chart is. McCarthy has thrived in the 0-9 yard range this year but had struggled on deeper throws. 12/17 for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns on throws 10 yards or more. He almost had 4 touchdowns on these plays, as Roman Wilson and Ronnie Bell were each ruled down inside the 1 on two deep plays.

The linebackers in short coverage gave McCarthy fits all night. 4/10 with two pick sixes on short throws really is the story of the night. Ronnie Bell should get some of the blame for the first interception, running a way to soft and round out route that allowed the defender to get inside, but McCarthy simply didn’t see the linebacker on the second interception. He appeared to struggle in his reads against the 3-3-5 all night.

Another disparity we have not seen often this year with McCarthy. Any quarterback will perform better in a clean pocket, but typically McCarthy does well under pressure, especially when he escapes out to his right and can throw on the move.

McCarthy completed 63% of his passes at 12 yards per attempt in a clean pocket. Those are fantastic numbers, but the opposite side of the coin is that both pick sixes came from a clean pocket. When TCU blitzed or got home with only 3 lineman, McCarthy was inaccurate, but in a clean pocket it was largely boom or bust. His average depth of target was 13.9 yards compared to 8.0 when he faced pressure. Michigan got 15 first downs from a clean pocket, and only 1 when McCarthy faced pressure.

There have been plenty of games all season where Michigan fans have called for more play action but this is insane. 16.7% of dropbacks, 7 of 42 were play action. The Wolverines have been successful in play action all year, they are built for it with their run game and JJ’s QB style. The disparity has never been bigger, 21.6 yards per attempt compared to 6.9. Fair assumption the PA numbers would have gone down with more attempts but this was a clear advantage for Michigan. Play action was putting the 3-3-5 defense in conflict as TCU was selling out for run. The saying always goes that the run game opens up the pass game, and the ability to succeed in play action, but it can go the other way as well. More play action for JJ could have led to more success in the run game.

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