This is it, we've reached part 4 of our Bryce Underwood By the Numbers series.

So far we've looked at the best freshman QB seasons ever, the top 10 seasons under new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, and some of the best seasons for a QB at Michigan.

By the Numbers Underwood Series: Best Freshman Seasons Ever

By the Numbers Underwood Series: Top 10 QB seasons under Chip Lindsey

By the Numbers Underwood Series: Best Michigan QB Seasons

Now we are going to put it all together with what we know about Bryce Underwood and see what the numbers say,

Bryce Underwood arrives in Ann Arbor with as much hype as any Michigan quarterback prospect in the modern era. Ranked as the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class, Underwood brings a strong arm, advanced poise, and dual-threat ability to a retooled Wolverine offense. But as much as Michigan fans may hope for instant stardom, history—and context—suggest measured expectations.

With new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey installing a power spread system, the tools are in place for Underwood to make an early contribution. Still, it’s worth remembering that true freshman quarterbacks—even the elite ones—often experience growing pains before they reach their ceiling.

We've put all the data together for freshmen QBs, Chip Lindsey QBs, and some of the better seasons in Michigan Football history.

Here's what to expect from a Bryce Underwood freshman season, By the Numbers.

Context and Projection Model

Chip Lindsey System: Known for producing efficient, high-volume passers in tempo-based, spread offenses. QBs average ~3,500 passing yards and 25–30 TDs in full seasons.

Historical Freshman Comparisons: Freshman QBs like Johnny Manziel, Trevor Lawrence, and Sam Howell set the benchmark—around 3,500+ yards, 30+ TDs, minimal turnovers, and major team impact.

Underwood Profile: No. 1 overall player in the 2025 class. Pro-ready frame, elite arm strength, poise, and athleticism. Projected to start Week 1.

Model Expectations

90th Percentile Projection (Ceiling Outcome):

Passing: 3,300+ yards

Touchdowns: 27++ TDs

Interceptions: 7 or less

Rushing: 400+ yards, 6+ TDs

Completion %: 67%+

Team Record: 11-1, Big Ten Contender, CFP Berth

Comparison: Underwood could eclipse every Lindsey QB but Mullens in raw numbers, and surpass most in dual-threat value. If he hits the high end, he enters the Trevor Lawrence–Jameis Winston tier, especially if Michigan reaches the CFP.

50th Percentile Projection (Median Outcome):

Passing: 2,850–3,100 yards

Touchdowns: 21–24 TDs

Interceptions: 9–11

Rushing: 250–300 yards, 3–4 TDs

Completion %: ~63%

Team Record: 9–3 or 10–2, fringe CFP/NY6 bowl contention

Comparison: Sam Howell 2019 or Jarrett Stidham 2017 — solid production with freshman inconsistency, but flashes of elite upside.

25th Percentile Projection (Floor)

Passing: 2,400 yards or less

Touchdowns: 16 TDs or less

Interceptions: 10 or more

Rushing: Less than 200 yards, 1-2 TDs

Completion %: Below 60%

Team Record: 8-4

Comparison: Manny Wilkins 2016 or Max Johnson 2024. Growing pains, pressure mistakes vs. elite defenses, OL protection inconsistencies

🔚 Final Assessment

Bryce Underwood’s 2025 projection under Chip Lindsey:

A dynamic, efficient freshman season with flashes of greatness.

He may not break every record as a rookie, but he could easily post a top-5 season in Michigan QB history.

With the right support and health, Underwood is capable of outperforming any freshman QB Lindsey has ever coached.

Bryce Underwood enters the 2025 season with unmatched hype, but the most realistic outcome is a steady, promising freshman campaign that sets the foundation for future dominance. He's unlikely to break passing records this fall—but he could very well take the first step toward doing so in the years to come.

If Underwood throws for over 3,000 yards, keeps the interception total in single digits, and leads Michigan to 10 wins or more, it would go down as the best freshman season in Michigan history. Even a median season should be enough to get Michigan back into Big Ten and CFP contention.

Realistic Outcome: 2,850–3,100 yards, 21–24 TDs, 9–11 INTs

Team Outlook: 10–2, NY6 or fringe CFP

Comparison: Sam Howell (2019) + Chad Henne (2004)

Short-term projection: Growing pains and progress in Year 1, with flashes that remind everyone why he was the top recruit in the country.

Long-term projection: Future star.

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